Simulated effect of pneumococcal vaccination in the Netherlands on existing rules constructed in a non-vaccinated cohort predicting sequelae after bacterial meningitis

BACKGROUND: Previously two prediction rules identifying children at risk of hearing loss and academic or behavioral limitations after bacterial meningitis were developed. Streptococcus pneumoniae as causative pathogen was an important risk factor in both. Since 2006 Dutch children receive seven-valent conjugate vaccination against S. pneumoniae. The presumed effect of vaccination was simulated by excluding all children infected by S. pneumoniae with the serotypes included in the vaccine, from both previous collected cohorts (between 1990-1995). METHODS: Children infected by one of the vaccine serotypes were excluded from both original cohorts (hearing loss: 70 of 628 children; academic or behavioral limitations: 26 of 182 children). All identified risk factors were included in multivariate logistic regression models. The discriminative ability of both new models was calculated. RESULTS: The same risk factors as in the original models were significant. The discriminative ability of the original hearing loss model was 0.84 and of the new model 0.87. In the academic or behavioral limitations model it was 0.83 and 0.84 respectively. CONCLUSION: It can be assumed that the prediction rules will also be applicable on a vaccinated population. However, vaccination does not provide 100% coverage and evidence is available that serotype replacement will occur. The impact of vaccination on serotype replacement needs to be investigated, and the prediction rules must be validated externally

Independent Validation of an Existing Model Enables Prediction of Hearing Loss after Childhood Bacterial Meningitis

Objective: This study aimed external validation of a formerly developed prediction model identifying children at risk for hearing loss after bacterial meningitis (BM). Independent risk factors included in the model are: duration of symptoms prior to admission, petechiae, cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) glucose level, Streptococcus pneumoniae and ataxia. Validation helps to evaluate whether the model has potential in clinical practice. Study design: 116 Dutch school-age BM survivors were included in the validation cohort and screened for sensorineural hearing loss (>25 dB). Risk factors were obtained from medical records. The model was applied to the validation cohort and its performance was compared with the development cohort. Validation was performed by application of the model on the validation cohort and by assessment of discrimination and goodness of fit. Calibration was evaluated by testing deviations in intercept and slope. Multiple imputation techniques were used to deal with missing values. Results: Risk factors were distributed equally between both cohorts. Discriminative ability (Area Under the Curve, AUC) of the model was 0.84 in the development and 0.78 in the validation cohort. Hosmer-Lemeshow test for goodness of fit was not significant in the validation cohort, implying good fit concerning the similarity of expected and observed cases. There were no significant differences in calibration slope and intercept. Sensitivity and negative predicted value were high, while specificity and positive predicted value were low which is comparable with findings in the development cohort. Conclusions: Performance of the model remained good in the validation cohort. This prediction model might be used as a screening tool and can help to identify those children that need special attention and a long follow-up period or more frequent auditory testing

Predicting sequelae and death after bacterial meningitis in childhood: A systematic review of prognostic studies

Background: Bacterial meningitis (BM) is a severe infection responsible for high mortality and disabling sequelae. Early identification of patients at high risk of these outcomes is necessary to prevent their occurrence by adequate treatment as much as possible. For this reason, several prognostic models have been developed. The objective of this study is to summarize the evidence regarding prognostic factors predicting death or sequelae due to BM in children 0-18 years of age. Methods: A search in MEDLINE and EMBASE was conducted to identify prognostic studies on risk factors for mortality and sequelae after BM in children. Selection of abstracts, full-text articles and assessment of methodological quality using the QUIPS checklist was performed by two reviewers independently. Data on prognostic factors per outcome were summarized. Results: Of the 31 studies identified, 15 were of moderate to high quality. Due to substantial heterogeneity in study characteristics and evaluated prognostic factors, no quantitative analysis was performed. Prognostic factors found to be statistically significant in more than one study of moderate or high quality are: complaints > 48 hours before admission, coma/impaired consciousness, (prolonged duration of) seizures, (prolonged) fever, shock, peripheral circulatory failure, respiratory distress, absence of petechiae, causative pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae, young age, male gender, several cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) parameters and white blood cell (WBC) count. Conclusions: Although several important prognostic factors for the prediction of mortality or sequelae after BM were identified, the inability to perform a pooled analysis makes the exact (independent) predictive value of these factors uncertain. This emphasizes the need for additional well-conducted prognostic studie

Prognostic factors related to sequelae in childhood bacterial meningitis: Data from a Greek meningitis registry

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Bacterial meningitis (BM) is a life-threatening disease, often related with serious complications and sequelae. Infants and children who survive bacterial meningitis often suffer neurological and other sequelae.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 2,477 patients aged 1 month to 14 years old hospitalized in a Children's Hospital in Greece diagnosed with acute bacterial meningitis were collected through a Meningitis Registry, from 1974 to 2005. Clinical, laboratory and other parameters (sex, age, pathogen, duration of symptoms before and after admission) were evaluated through univariate and multivariate analysis with regard to sequelae. Analysis of acute complications were also studied but not included in the final model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The rate of acute complications (arthritis and/or subdural effusion) was estimated at 6.8% (152 out of 2,251 patients, 95%CI 5.8-7.9) while the rate of sequelae (severe hearing loss, ventriculitis, hydrocephalus or seizure disorder) among survivors was estimated at 3.3% (73 out of 2,207 patients, 95%CI 2.6-4.2). Risk factors on admission associated with sequelae included seizures, absence of hemorrhagic rash, low CSF glucose, high CSF protein and the etiology of meningitis. A combination of significant prognostic factors including presence of seizures, low CSF glucose, high CSF protein, positive blood culture and absence of petechiae on admission presented an absolute risk of sequelae of 41.7% (95%CI 15.2-72.3).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A combination of prognostic factors of sequelae in childhood BM may be of value in selecting patients for more intensive therapy and in identifying possible candidates for new treatment strategies.</p

The Fanconi Anemia Core Complex Is Dispensable during Somatic Hypermutation and Class Switch Recombination

To generate high affinity antibodies during an immune response, B cells undergo somatic hypermutation (SHM) of their immunoglobulin genes. Error-prone translesion synthesis (TLS) DNA polymerases have been reported to be responsible for all mutations at template A/T and at least a fraction of G/C transversions. In contrast to A/T mutations which depend on PCNA ubiquitination, it remains unclear how G/C transversions are regulated during SHM. Several lines of evidence indicate a mechanistic link between the Fanconi Anemia (FA) pathway and TLS. To investigate the contribution of the FA pathway in SHM we analyzed FancG-deficient B cells. B cells deficient for FancG, an essential member of the FA core complex, were hypersensitive to treatment with cross-linking agents. However, the frequencies and nucleotide exchange spectra of SHM remained comparable between wild-type and FancG-deficient B cells. These data indicate that the FA pathway is not involved in regulating the outcome of SHM in mammals. In addition, the FA pathway appears dispensable for class switch recombination

Shotgun Proteomics Identifies Serum Fibronectin as a Candidate Diagnostic Biomarker for Inclusion in Future Multiplex Tests for Ectopic Pregnancy

Ectopic pregnancy (EP) is difficult to diagnose early and accurately. Women often present at emergency departments in early pregnancy with a 'pregnancy of unknown location' (PUL), and diagnosis and exclusion of EP is challenging due to a lack of reliable biomarkers. The objective of this study was to identify novel diagnostic biomarkers for EP. Shotgun proteomics, incorporating combinatorial-ligand library pre-fractionation, was used to interrogate pooled sera (n = 40) from women undergoing surgery for EP, termination of viable intrauterine pregnancy and management of non-viable intrauterine pregnancy. Western blot was used to validate results in individual sera. ELISAs were developed to interrogate sera from women with PUL (n = 120). Sera were collected at time of first symptomatic presentation and categorized according to pregnancy outcome. The main outcome measures were differences between groups and area under the receiver operating curve (ROC). Proteomics identified six biomarker candidates. Western blot detected significant differences in levels of two of these candidates. ELISA of sera from second cohort revealed that these differences were only significant for one of these candidates, fibronectin. ROC analysis of ability of fibronectin to discriminate EP from other pregnancy outcomes suggested that fibronectin has diagnostic potential (ROC 0.6439; 95% CI 0.5090 to 0.7788; P>0.05), becoming significant when 'ambiguous' medically managed PUL excluded from analysis (ROC 0.6538; 95% CI 0.5158 to 0.7918; P<0.05). Fibronectin may make a useful adjunct to future multiplex EP diagnostic tests

Simulated effect of pneumococcal vaccination in the Netherlands on existing rules constructed in a non-vaccinated cohort predicting sequelae after bacterial meningitis

Abstract Background Previously two prediction rules identifying children at risk of hearing loss and academic or behavioral limitations after bacterial meningitis were developed. Streptococcus pneumoniae as causative pathogen was an important risk factor in both. Since 2006 Dutch children receive seven-valent conjugate vaccination against S. pneumoniae. The presumed effect of vaccination was simulated by excluding all children infected by S. pneumoniae with the serotypes included in the vaccine, from both previous collected cohorts (between 1990-1995). Methods Children infected by one of the vaccine serotypes were excluded from both original cohorts (hearing loss: 70 of 628 children; academic or behavioral limitations: 26 of 182 children). All identified risk factors were included in multivariate logistic regression models. The discriminative ability of both new models was calculated. Results The same risk factors as in the original models were significant. The discriminative ability of the original hearing loss model was 0.84 and of the new model 0.87. In the academic or behavioral limitations model it was 0.83 and 0.84 respectively. Conclusion It can be assumed that the prediction rules will also be applicable on a vaccinated population. However, vaccination does not provide 100% coverage and evidence is available that serotype replacement will occur. The impact of vaccination on serotype replacement needs to be investigated, and the prediction rules must be validated externally.</p