Computing Inferences for Large-Scale Continuous-Time Markov Chains by Combining Lumping with Imprecision

If the state space of a homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain is too large, making inferences - here limited to determining marginal or limit expectations - becomes computationally infeasible. Fortunately, the state space of such a chain is usually too detailed for the inferences we are interested in, in the sense that a less detailed - smaller - state space suffices to unambiguously formalise the inference. However, in general this so-called lumped state space inhibits computing exact inferences because the corresponding dynamics are unknown and/or intractable to obtain. We address this issue by considering an imprecise continuous-time Markov chain. In this way, we are able to provide guaranteed lower and upper bounds for the inferences of interest, without suffering from the curse of dimensionality.Comment: 9th International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics (SMPS 2018

Computing inferences for large-scale continuous-time Markov chains by combining lumping with imprecision

If the state space of a homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain is too large, making inferences—here limited to determining marginal or limit expectations—becomes computationally infeasible. Fortunately, the state space of such a chain is usually too detailed for the inferences we are interested in, in the sense that a less detailed—smaller—state space suffices to unambiguously formalise the inference. However, in general this so-called lumped state space inhibits computing exact inferences because the corresponding dynamics are unknown and/or intractable to obtain. We address this issue by considering an imprecise continuous-time Markov chain. In this way, we are able to provide guaranteed lower and upper bounds for the inferences of interest, without suffering from the curse of dimensionality

Understanding age-related modifications of motor control strategies

ISSN:1743-000

A family history of breast cancer will not predict female early onset breast cancer in a population-based setting

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: An increased risk of breast cancer for relatives of breast cancer patients has been demonstrated in many studies, and having a relative diagnosed with breast cancer at an early age is an indication for breast cancer screening. This indication has been derived from estimates based on data from cancer-prone families or from BRCA1/2 mutation families, and might be biased because BRCA1/2 mutations explain only a small proportion of the familial clustering of breast cancer. The aim of the current study was to determine the predictive value of a family history of cancer with regard to early onset of female breast cancer in a population based setting. METHODS: An unselected sample of 1,987 women with and without breast cancer was studied with regard to the age of diagnosis of breast cancer. RESULTS: The risk of early-onset breast cancer was increased when there were: (1) at least 2 cases of female breast cancer in first-degree relatives (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.09; 95% CI: 128-7.44), (2) at least 2 cases of female breast cancer in first or second-degree relatives under the age of 50 (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.36; 95% CI: 1.12-10.08), (3) at least 1 case of female breast cancer under the age of 40 in a first- or second-degree relative (yes/no; HR at age 30: 2.06; 95% CI: 0.83-5.12) and (4) any case of bilateral breast cancer (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.47; 95%: 1.33-9.05). The positive predictive value of having 2 or more of these characteristics was 13% for breast cancer before the age of 70, 11% for breast cancer before the age of 50, and 1% for breast cancer before the age of 30. CONCLUSION: Applying family history related criteria in an unselected population could result in the screening of many women who will not develop breast cancer at an early age

The Thermal Design, Characterization, and Performance of the SPIDER Long-Duration Balloon Cryostat

We describe the SPIDER flight cryostat, which is designed to cool six millimeter-wavelength telescopes during an Antarctic long-duration balloon flight. The cryostat, one of the largest to have flown on a stratospheric payload, uses liquid helium-4 to deliver cooling power to stages at 4.2 and 1.6 K. Stainless steel capillaries facilitate a high flow impedance connection between the main liquid helium tank and a smaller superfluid tank, allowing the latter to operate at 1.6 K as long as there is liquid in the 4.2 K main tank. Each telescope houses a closed cycle helium-3 adsorption refrigerator that further cools the focal planes down to 300 mK. Liquid helium vapor from the main tank is routed through heat exchangers that cool radiation shields, providing negative thermal feedback. The system performed successfully during a 17 day flight in the 2014-2015 Antarctic summer. The cryostat had a total hold time of 16.8 days, with 15.9 days occurring during flight.Comment: 15 pgs, 17 fig

Plate-boundary deformation associated with the great Sumatra–Andaman earthquake

The Sumatra–Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 is the first giant earthquake (moment magnitude M_w > 9.0) to have occurred since the advent of modern space-based geodesy and broadband seismology. It therefore provides an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the characteristics of one of these enormous and rare events. Here we report estimates of the ground displacement associated with this event, using near-field Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys in northwestern Sumatra combined with in situ and remote observations of the vertical motion of coral reefs. These data show that the earthquake was generated by rupture of the Sunda subduction megathrust over a distance of >1,500 kilometres and a width of <150 kilometres. Megathrust slip exceeded 20 metres offshore northern Sumatra, mostly at depths shallower than 30 kilometres. Comparison of the geodetically and seismically inferred slip distribution indicates that ~30 per cent additional fault slip accrued in the 1.5 months following the 500-second-long seismic rupture. Both seismic and aseismic slip before our re-occupation of GPS sites occurred on the shallow portion of the megathrust, where the large Aceh tsunami originated. Slip tapers off abruptly along strike beneath Simeulue Island at the southeastern edge of the rupture, where the earthquake nucleated and where an M_w = 7.2 earthquake occurred in late 2002. This edge also abuts the northern limit of slip in the 28 March 2005 M_w = 8.7 Nias–Simeulue earthquake

Shwachman-Bodian-Diamond syndrome (SBDS) protein is a direct inhibitor of protein phosphatase 2A (PP2A) activity and overexpressed in acute myeloid leukaemia.

Protein phosphatase 2A (PP2A) is a serine/threonine phosphatase inactivated in many cancers including acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). Activation of PP2A is emerging as a therapeutic strategy, however the mechanisms underpinning PP2A inhibition are not well understood. Using myeloid progenitor cells harbouring oncogenic mutant c-KIT and characterised by PP2A inhibition, we have identified the ribosome biogenesis protein SBDS, as a target of the PP2A activating drugs FTY720 and AAL(S). We show SBDS binds to PP2A complexes comprised of the B55α regulatory subunit of PP2A. shRNA mediated knockdown of SBDS increased PP2A activity and induced apoptosis. At diagnosis, AML patients expressed significantly more SBDS mRNA than healthy controls, with relapsed patients expressing significantly more SBDS mRNA than both healthy controls and patients at diagnosis. Together, our data presents a role for SBDS in the dysregulation of PP2A in AML

Methylation of class II transactivator gene promoter IV is not associated with susceptibility to Multiple Sclerosis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex trait in which alleles at or near the class II loci <it>HLA-DRB1 </it>and <it>HLA-DQB1 </it>contribute significantly to genetic risk. The MHC class II transactivator (<it>MHC2TA</it>) is the master controller of expression of class II genes, and methylation of the promoter of this gene has been previously been shown to alter its function. In this study we sought to assess whether or not methylation of the <it>MHC2TA </it>promoter pIV could contribute to MS disease aetiology.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In DNA from peripheral blood mononuclear cells from a sample of 50 monozygotic disease discordant MS twins the <it>MHC2TA </it>promoter IV was sequenced and analysed by methylation specific PCR.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>No methylation or sequence variation of the <it>MHC2TA </it>promoter pIV was found.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of this study cannot support the notion that methylation of the pIV promoter of <it>MHC2TA </it>contributes to MS disease risk, although tissue and timing specific epigenetic modifications cannot be ruled out.</p

Sequential application of hyperspectral indices for delineation of stripe rust infection and nitrogen deficiency in wheat

© 2015, Springer Science+Business Media New York. Nitrogen (N) fertilization is crucial for the growth and development of wheat crops, and yet increased use of N can also result in increased stripe rust severity. Stripe rust infection and N deficiency both cause changes in foliar physiological activity and reduction in plant pigments that result in chlorosis. Furthermore, stripe rust produce pustules on the leaf surface which similar to chlorotic regions have a yellow color. Quantifying the severity of each factor is critical for adopting appropriate management practices. Eleven widely-used vegetation indices, based on mathematic combinations of narrow-band optical reflectance measurements in the visible/near infrared wavelength range were evaluated for their ability to discriminate and quantify stripe rust severity and N deficiency in a rust-susceptible wheat variety (H45) under varying conditions of nitrogen status. The physiological reflectance index (PhRI) and leaf and canopy chlorophyll index (LCCI) provided the strongest correlation with levels of rust infection and N-deficiency, respectively. When PhRI and LCCI were used in a sequence, both N deficiency and rust infection levels were correctly classified in 82.5 and 55 % of the plots at Zadoks growth stage 47 and 75, respectively. In misclassified plots, an overestimation of N deficiency was accompanied by an underestimation of the rust infection level or vice versa. In 18 % of the plots, there was a tendency to underestimate the severity of stripe rust infection even though the N-deficiency level was correctly predicted. The contrasting responses of the PhRI and LCCI to stripe rust infection and N deficiency, respectively, and the relative insensitivity of these indices to the other parameter makes their use in combination suitable for quantifying levels of stripe rust infection and N deficiency in wheat crops under field conditions