Economic consequences of zero international migration in the EU: An assessment for Europe based on the Eurostat population projections

Without international migration the EU28 population by 2060 would be reduced by 76 million people, with a higher median age. This study explores how much EU28 and members states long-term economic growth would be affected in case there would not be international migration to the EU28 countries from now to the year 2060.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Does climate policy make the EU economy more resilient to oil price rises? A CGE analysis

The European Union has committed itself to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% in 2020 compared with 1990 levels. This paper investigates whether this policy has an additional benefit in terms of economic resilience by protecting the EU from the macroeconomic consequences due to an oil price rise. We use the GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model to analyze the results of three scenarios. The first one refers to the impact of an increase in the oil price. The second scenario analyses the European climate policy and the third scenario analyses the oil price rise when the European climate policy is implemented. Unilateral EU climate policy imposes a cost on the EU of around 1.0% of GDP. An oil price rise in the presence of EU climate policy does impose an additional cost on the EU of 1.5% of GDP, but this is less than the 2.2% of GDP that the EU would lose from the oil price rise in the absence of climate policy. This is evidence that even unilateral climate policy does offer some economic protection for the EU.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Recent Trends and Outlook of the Spanish Energy System

During the last decade the Spanish energy system has become more energy and carbon intensive, and more dependent on external energy resources. The regulation of the electricity market has significantly changed. Two scenarios for the 2030 time horizon are analysed with the POLES-Spain energy model. Under the baseline scenario, the main energy challenges persist even if the energy-GDP intensity reverses its increasing trend. According to a second scenario that assumes significant progress in energy efficiency and higher international energy prices, the energy system undergoes a transformation towards cleaner technologies and renewable energy resourcesJRC.J.2-The economics of climate change, energy and transpor

Global Climate Policy Scenarios for 2030 and beyond - Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Pathway Scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 Models

The European Union is committed to limiting the global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. In 2007, the European Commission published a Communication on 'Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius: the way ahead for 2020 and beyond', which explores ways for meeting this target. The Communication drew on scenarios developed by the Joint Research Centre IPTS. These scenarios and the underlying model toolbox are presented in this report. The report shows that a baseline development would lead to a continuous rise in global greenhouse gas emissions. If dedicated climate change policies and energy efficiency standards were introduced, global greenhouse gas emissions from energy use and industrial processes could be reduced to reach a level of 25% below that of 1990. The 'GHG reduction scenario' takes a novel ¿ yet realistic ¿ approach by simulating an imperfect carbon market across sectors and regions. Reaching the 2 degree target pathway is feasible under these assumptions. One key element for achieving it would be energy savings and changes in the power sector. Furthermore, the use of 'flexible mechanisms' is found to be central for limiting the cost of an ambitious climate change policy.JRC.J.2-Competitiveness and Sustainabilit

JRC PESETA III Project: Economic integration and spillover analysis

This report details the economic integration of the biophysical impact results of the JRC PESETA III project. Six impact areas have been fully integrated: labour productivity, river floods, coastal floods, energy, agriculture and human mortality due to heatwaves. A second objective of the economic task has been to explore the degree to which climate impacts cross geographical borders, the so-called spillover analysis. The global transboundary analysis has been made for the four sectors for which global impact estimates are available: labour productivity, river floods, energy, and agriculture. This document presents the methodology and main results of the economic assessment.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Economic analysis of selected climate impacts

Climate change damages the capital stock, affects economic production and the welfare of households in regions suffering the impact or that are economically linked with them. These economic effects have been quantified for seven climate impact categories: river floods, coastal floods, agriculture, energy supply, droughts, windstorms and human mortality. Due to the limited coverage of climate impacts, the assessment does not evaluate the full economic impacts of climate change in Europe. Human mortality from temperature extremes dominate the economic climate impacts, yet its contribution is strongly dependent on the monetary valuation of human lives. The magnitude of welfare losses in the Southern regions (Central Europe South and Southern Europe) is estimated to be several times larger compared to that in the North of Europe. Limiting warming to 2C would halve economic impacts compared to a 3C scenario, while achieving the stringent Paris target of 1.5C would lower welfare loss by 75%.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Economic Assessment of Post-2012 Global Climate Policies - Analysis of Gas Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 models

This report documents the JRC/IPTS modelling activities of the 2009 European Commission Communication "Towards a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen", which establishes the EU's position in the Copenhagen negotiations. According to the POLES model, the estimated global direct abatement costs of an emission reduction scenario compatible with the EU 2 degrees target are ¿175 billion by 2020. The report also highlights the crucial importance of energy efficiency improvements in achieving the overall emission reduction targets. Finally, the analyses with the POLES and GEM-E3 models underline the fundamental role that a global carbon market can play in implementing climate policies in a cost-efficient way.JRC.J.2-Competitiveness and Sustainabilit

A Comparability Analysis of Global Burden Sharing GHG Reduction Scenarios

The distribution of the mitigation burden across countries is a key issue regarding the post-2012 global climate policies. This article explores the economic implications of alternative allocation rules, an assessment made in the run-up to the COP15 in Copenhagen (December 2009). We analyse the comparability of the allocations across countries based on four single indicators: GDP per capita, GHG emissions per GDP, population growth, and the GHG emission trend in the recent past. The multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, GEM-E3, is used for that purpose. Further, the article also compares a perfect carbon market without transaction costs with the case of a gradually developing carbon market, i.e. a carbon market with (gradually diminishing) transaction costs.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Adapting to rising coastal flood risk in the EU under climate change

Around one third of the EU population lives within 50 km of the coast. Extreme sea levels in Europe could rise by as much as one meter or more by the end of this century. Without mitigation and adaptation measures, annual damages from coastal flooding in the EU-28 could increase sharply from €1.4 billion nowadays to almost €240 billion by 2100. Around 95% of these impacts could be avoided through moderate mitigation and by raising dykes where human settlements and economically important areas exist along the coastline. The extent to which adaptation can lessen the effects of coastal flooding and at what cost is sensitive to the investment strategy adopted.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

Climate change impacts and adaptation in Europe

The JRC PESETA IV study shows that ecosystems, people and economies in the EU will face major impacts from climate change if we do not urgently mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or adapt to climate change. The burden of climate change shows a clear north-south divide, with southern regions in Europe much more impacted, through the effects of extreme heat, water scarcity, drought, forest fires and agriculture losses. Limiting global warming to well below 2°C would considerably reduce climate change impacts in Europe. Adaptation to climate change would further minimize unavoidable impacts in a cost-effective manner, with considerable co-benefits from nature-based solutions.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor