Time-varying spot and futures oil price dynamics

We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important role than spot markets in the case of contracts with shorter maturities, but the relative contribution of the two types of market turns out to be highly unstable, especially for the most deferred contracts. The implications of these results for hedging and forecasting crude oil spot prices are also discussed

Time-varying spot and futures oil price dynamics

We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important role than spot markets in the case of contracts with shorter maturities, but the relative contribution of the two types of market turns out to be highly unstable, especially for the most deferred contracts. The implications of these results for hedging and forecasting crude oil spot prices are also discussed.Cointegration, Oil market, Futures prices, Price Discovery.

Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics

We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important role than spot markets in the case of contracts with shorter maturities, but the relative contribution of the two types of market turns out to be highly unstable, especially for the most deferred contracts. The implications of these results for hedging and forecasting crude oil spot prices are also discussed.Cointegration, oil market, futures prices, price discovery

Are the Baltic Countries Ready to Adopt the Euro? A Generalised Purchasing Power Parity Approach

This paper focuses on macroeconomic interdependencies between the Euro area and three transition economies (Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia), with the aim of establishing whether the latter are ready to adopt the Euro. The theoretical framework is based on the Generalised Purchasing Power Parity (GPPP) hypothesis, which is empirically tested within a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model. Using both monthly and quarterly data over the period 1993-2005, it is found that GPPP holds for the real exchange rate vis-à-vis the Euro of each Baltic country, reflecting a degree of real convergence consistent with Optimum Currency Area criteria. Further, the adopted joint modelling approach for the real exchange rates of the Baltic region outperforms a number of alternative models in terms of out-of-sample forecasts.transition economies, Euro area, (Generalised) Purchasing Power Parity, Vector Error Corrector models

Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics

We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important role than spot markets in the case of contracts with shorter maturities, but the relative contribution of the two types of market turns out to be highly unstable, especially for the most deferred contracts. The implications of these results for hedging and forecasting crude oil spot prices are also discussed.cointegration, oil market, futures prices, price discovery

PASSPORT evaluation : Accountability for finances, compliance, and fairness

This research is an evaluation of the mechanisms and processes in place to assure that PASSPORT funds are managed properly and procurements are undertaken in a fair and open manner

Fiscal Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Some Evidence for Latin America

This paper analyses the effects of fiscal shocks using a two-country macroeconomic model for output, labour input, government spending and relative prices which provides the orthogonality restrictions for obtaining the structural shocks. Dynamic simulation techniques are then applied, in particular to shed light on the possible effects of fiscal imbalances on the real exchange rate in the case of six Latin American countries. Using quarterly data over the period 1980-2006, we find that in a majority of cases fiscal shocks are the main driving force of real exchange rate fluctuations.fiscal shocks, real exchange rate, Latin American countries

Clustering approaches and ensembles applied in the delineation of management classes in precision agriculture.

Abstract. This paper describes an experiment performed using different approaches for spatial data clustering, aiming to assist the delineation of management classes in Precision Agriculture (PA). These approaches were established from the partitional clustering algorithm Fuzzy c-Means (FCM), traditionally used in this context, and from the hierarchical clustering algorithm HACCSpatial, especially designed for this PA task. We also performed experiments using traditional ensembles approaches from the literature, evaluating their behavior to achieve consensus solutions from individual clusterings obtained from features splitting or running one of the abovementioned algorithms. Results showed some differences between FCM and HACC-Spatial, mainly for the visualization of management classes in the form of maps. Considering the consensus clusterings provided by ensembles, it became clear the attempt to achieve an agreement result that most closely matches the original clusterings, showing us some details that may go undetected when we analyse only the individual clusterings.Geoinfo 2016

Molecular architecture of human polycomb repressive complex 2.

Polycomb Repressive Complex 2 (PRC2) is essential for gene silencing, establishing transcriptional repression of specific genes by tri-methylating Lysine 27 of histone H3, a process mediated by cofactors such as AEBP2. In spite of its biological importance, little is known about PRC2 architecture and subunit organization. Here, we present the first three-dimensional electron microscopy structure of the human PRC2 complex bound to its cofactor AEBP2. Using a novel internal protein tagging-method, in combination with isotopic chemical cross-linking and mass spectrometry, we have localized all the PRC2 subunits and their functional domains and generated a detailed map of interactions. The position and stabilization effect of AEBP2 suggests an allosteric role of this cofactor in regulating gene silencing. Regions in PRC2 that interact with modified histone tails are localized near the methyltransferase site, suggesting a molecular mechanism for the chromatin-based regulation of PRC2 activity.DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00005.001

Real choices : a caregiver respite strategy for the state of Ohio

The purpose of Real Choices: A Caregiver Respite Strategy For The State of Ohio was to determine the feasibility of restructuring the PASSPORT program to achieve caregiver respite. We found the majority of PASSPORT consumers have at least one active caregiver. By sustaining caregiver activities and potentially keeping care at home, the cost difference between keeping the PASSPORT consumer enrolled in PASSPORT in comparison to the average cost of nursing facility care are significant. Any additional investment in Ohio s respite strategy will save the state money in the future. Based on our findings we propose a four component family-based respite strategy. The four components of the proposed PASSPORT respite strategy are: (1) Defacto Respite; (2) Defacto Respite Plus; (3) Institutionalize Respite Strategy; and (4) Real Choices. Defacto respite has already been incorporated into PASSPORT. The three additional components introduce a family-based approach to service plan development, flexibility, and consumer direction culminating in Real Choices . As we see it, Real Choices is a modest, no-strings-attached cash benefit or voucher program that is grounded in a systematic assessment of the primary caregivers needs, similar to the flexibility built into the supplemental services part of the National Family Caregiver Support Program. Cash benefits to purchase goods and services will help offset the often higher cost of other services and/or for some enabling the caregiver to continue support of the care receiver