Evaluation of low-template DNA profiles using peak heights

In recent years statistical models for the analysis of complex (low-template and/or mixed) DNA profiles have moved from using only presence/absence information about allelic peaks in an electropherogram, to quantitative use of peak heights. This is challenging because peak heights are very variable and affected by a number of factors. We present a new peak-height model with important novel features, including over- and double-stutter, and a new approach to dropin. Our model is incorporated in open-source R code likeLTD. We apply it to 108 laboratory-generated crime-scene profiles and demonstrate techniques of model validation that are novel in the field. We use the results to explore the benefits of modeling peak heights, finding that it is not always advantageous, and to assess the merits of pre-extraction replication. We also introduce an approximation that can reduce computational complexity when there are multiple low-level contributors who are not of interest to the investigation, and we present a simple approximate adjustment for linkage between loci, making it possible to accommodate linkage when evaluating complex DNA profiles

Statistical issues surrounding the analysis of forensic low-template DNA samples

Increased sensitivity of forensic DNA profiling over the last decade has led to increased stochasticity in the resulting profiles, causing difficulties for interpretation that were acknowledged by the Caddy Report [Caddy et al., 2008]. These difficulties were largely overcome with the adoption of statistical models allowing for dropout and dropin, but interpretation issues remain, several of which are tackled in this thesis. One such issue concerns the choice of allele frequency databases when the ethnic background of the true source of the crime scene DNA is unknown. I propose a heuristic for choosing a single database and adjusting the likelihood ratio calculations to allow for the possibility that a different database may be more appropriate. Another issue in general, and specifically for the database choice heuristic, is the choice of an appropriate value for the population genetics parameter FST to account for distant relatedness between the alleged contributor and an alternative source of the DNA. I present empirical estimates of FST in worldwide populations, relative to the continental-scale reference databases that are used for UK forensic DNA profiles. In the last few years many software packages for the evaluation of low-template DNA samples have emerged, including likeLTD originally developed by my supervisor Prof Balding but greatly improved and reprogrammed by myself as part of my PhD work. There remains little consensus on how to validate these software packages. I present a method of validation based on the use of multiple-replicate crime stain profiles. It relies on the intuition that sufficient replicates of even very noisy DNA profiling runs eventually generate the same information as a single high-quality replicate. I show that likeLTD performs well when assessed by this approach. Finally, I present a new statistical model that extends likeLTD to incorporate the peak height information in a crime scene profile. I show results based on simulation and laboratory trials verifying the good performance of the new model in improved discrimination between true and false hypotheses

Choice of population database for forensic DNA profile analysis.

When evaluating the weight of evidence (WoE) for an individual to be a contributor to a DNA sample, an allele frequency database is required. The allele frequencies are needed to inform about genotype probabilities for unknown contributors of DNA to the sample. Typically databases are available from several populations, and a common practice is to evaluate the WoE using each available database for each unknown contributor. Often the most conservative WoE (most favourable to the defence) is the one reported to the court. However the number of human populations that could be considered is essentially unlimited and the number of contributors to a sample can be large, making it impractical to perform every possible WoE calculation, particularly for complex crime scene profiles. We propose instead the use of only the database that best matches the ancestry of the queried contributor, together with a substantial FST adjustment. To investigate the degree of conservativeness of this approach, we performed extensive simulations of one- and two-contributor crime scene profiles, in the latter case with, and without, the profile of the second contributor available for the analysis. The genotypes were simulated using five population databases, which were also available for the analysis, and evaluations of WoE using our heuristic rule were compared with several alternative calculations using different databases. Using FST=0.03, we found that our heuristic gave WoE more favourable to the defence than alternative calculations in well over 99% of the comparisons we considered; on average the difference in WoE was just under 0.2 bans (orders of magnitude) per locus. The degree of conservativeness of the heuristic rule can be adjusted through the FST value. We propose the use of this heuristic for DNA profile WoE calculations, due to its ease of implementation, and efficient use of the evidence while allowing a flexible degree of conservativeness

Visualizing and exploring patterns of large mutational events with SigProfilerMatrixGenerator

BACKGROUND: All cancers harbor somatic mutations in their genomes. In principle, mutations affecting between one and fifty base pairs are generally classified as small mutational events. Conversely, large mutational events affect more than fifty base pairs, and, in most cases, they encompass copy-number and structural variants affecting many thousands of base pairs. Prior studies have demonstrated that examining patterns of somatic mutations can be leveraged to provide both biological and clinical insights, thus, resulting in an extensive repertoire of tools for evaluating small mutational events. Recently, classification schemas for examining large-scale mutational events have emerged and shown their utility across the spectrum of human cancers. However, there has been no computationally efficient bioinformatics tool that allows visualizing and exploring these large-scale mutational events. RESULTS: Here, we present a new version of SigProfilerMatrixGenerator that now delivers integrated capabilities for examining large mutational events. The tool provides support for examining copy-number variants and structural variants under two previously developed classification schemas and it supports data from numerous algorithms and data modalities. SigProfilerMatrixGenerator is written in Python with an R wrapper package provided for users that prefer working in an R environment. CONCLUSIONS: The new version of SigProfilerMatrixGenerator provides the first standardized bioinformatics tool for optimized exploration and visualization of two previously developed classification schemas for copy number and structural variants. The tool is freely available at https://github.com/AlexandrovLab/SigProfilerMatrixGenerator with an extensive documentation at https://osf.io/s93d5/wiki/home/

Considerations for using potential surrogate endpoints in cancer screening trials.

The requirement of large-scale expensive cancer screening trials spanning decades creates considerable barriers to the development, commercialisation, and implementation of novel screening tests. One way to address these problems is to use surrogate endpoints for the ultimate endpoint of interest, cancer mortality, at an earlier timepoint. This Review aims to highlight the issues underlying the choice and use of surrogate endpoints for cancer screening trials, to propose criteria for when and how we might use such endpoints, and to suggest possible candidates. We present the current landscape and challenges, and discuss lessons and shortcomings from the therapeutic trial setting. It is hugely challenging to validate a surrogate endpoint, even with carefully designed clinical studies. Nevertheless, we consider whether there are candidates that might satisfy the requirements defined by research and regulatory bodies

Therapeutic vulnerability to PARP1,2 inhibition in RB1-mutant osteosarcoma

Loss-of-function mutations in the RB1 tumour suppressor are key drivers in cancer, including osteosarcoma. RB1 loss-of-function compromises genome-maintenance and hence could yield vulnerability to therapeutics targeting such processes. Here we demonstrate selective hypersensitivity to clinically-approved inhibitors of Poly-ADP-Polymerase1,2 inhibitors (PARPi) in RB1-defective cancer cells, including an extended panel of osteosarcoma-derived lines. PARPi treatment results in extensive cell death in RB1-defective backgrounds and prolongs survival of mice carrying human RB1-defective osteosarcoma grafts. PARPi sensitivity is not associated with canonical homologous recombination defect (HRd) signatures that predict PARPi sensitivity in cancers with BRCA1,2 loss, but is accompanied by rapid activation of DNA replication checkpoint signalling, and active DNA replication is a prerequisite for sensitivity. Importantly, sensitivity in backgrounds with natural or engineered RB1 loss surpasses that seen in BRCA-mutated backgrounds where PARPi have established clinical benefit. Our work provides evidence that PARPi sensitivity extends beyond cancers identifiable by HRd and advocates PARP1,2 inhibition as a personalised strategy for RB1-mutated osteosarcoma and other cancers

Whole genome sequencing of single circulating tumor cells from neuroendocrine neoplasms

Single-cell profiling of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) as part of a minimally invasive liquid biopsy presents an opportunity to characterize and monitor tumor heterogeneity and evolution in individual patients. In this study, we aimed to compare single-cell copy number variation (CNV) data with tissue, and define the degree of intra- and inter-patient genomic heterogeneity. We performed next generation sequencing (NGS) whole genome CNV analysis of 125 single CTCs derived from seven patients with neuroendocrine neoplasms (NEN) alongside matched white blood cells (WBC), formalin fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) and fresh frozen (FF) samples. CTC CNV profiling demonstrated recurrent chromosomal alterations in previously reported NEN copy number hotspots, including the prognostically relevant loss of chromosome 18. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering revealed CTCs with distinct clonal lineages as well as significant intra- and inter-patient genomic heterogeneity, including subclonal alterations not detectable by bulk analysis and previously unreported in NEN. Notably, we also demonstrate the presence of genomically distinct CTCs according to the enrichment strategy utilized (EpCAM-dependent versus size-based). This work has significant implications for the identification of therapeutic targets, tracking of evolutionary change and the implementation of CTC-biomarkers in cancer

Grand Challenges: Improving HIV Treatment Outcomes by Integrating Interventions for Co-Morbid Mental Illness.

In the fourth article of a five-part series providing a global perspective on integrating mental health, Sylvia Kaaya and colleagues discuss the importance of integrating mental health interventions into HIV prevention and treatment platforms. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Do intoxicated witnesses produce poor facial composite images?

The effect of alcohol intoxication on witness memory and performance has been the subject of research for some time, however, whether intoxication affects facial composite construction has not been investigated. Intoxication was predicted to adversely affect facial composite construction. Thirty-two participants were allocated to one of four beverage conditions consisting of factorial combinations of alcohol or placebo at face encoding, and later construction. Participants viewed a video of a target person and constructed a composite of this target the following day. The resulting images were presented as a full face composite, or a part face consisting of either internal or external facial features to a second sample of participants who provided likeness ratings as a measure of facial composite quality. Intoxication at face encoding had a detrimental impact on the quality of facial composites produced the following day, suggesting that alcohol impaired the encoding of the target faces. The common finding that external compared to internal features are more accurately represented was demonstrated, even following alcohol at encoding. This finding was moderated by alcohol and target face gender such that alcohol at face encoding resulted in reduced likeness of external features for male composite faces only. Moderate alcohol intoxication impairs the quality of facial composites, adding to existing literature demonstrating little effect of alcohol on line-up studies. The impact of intoxication on face perception mechanisms, and the apparent narrowing of processing to external face areas such as hair, is discussed in the context of alcohol myopia theory

Size Effect on Failure of Pre-stretched Free-Standing Nanomembranes

Free-standing nanomembranes are two-dimensional materials with nanometer thickness but can have macroscopic lateral dimensions. We develop a fracture model to evaluate a pre-stretched free standing circular ultrathin nanomembrane and establish a relation between the energy release rate of a circumferential interface crack and the pre-strain in the membrane. Our results demonstrate that detachment cannot occur when the radius of the membrane is smaller than a critical size. This critical radius is inversely proportional to the Young’s modulus and square of the pre-strain of the membrane