Bias in trials comparing paired continuous tests can cause researchers to choose the wrong screening modality

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To compare the diagnostic accuracy of two continuous screening tests, a common approach is to test the difference between the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. After study participants are screened with both screening tests, the disease status is determined as accurately as possible, either by an invasive, sensitive and specific secondary test, or by a less invasive, but less sensitive approach. For most participants, disease status is approximated through the less sensitive approach. The invasive test must be limited to the fraction of the participants whose results on either or both screening tests exceed a threshold of suspicion, or who develop signs and symptoms of the disease after the initial screening tests.</p> <p>The limitations of this study design lead to a bias in the ROC curves we call <it>paired screening trial bias</it>. This bias reflects the synergistic effects of inappropriate reference standard bias, differential verification bias, and partial verification bias. The absence of a gold reference standard leads to inappropriate reference standard bias. When different reference standards are used to ascertain disease status, it creates differential verification bias. When only suspicious screening test scores trigger a sensitive and specific secondary test, the result is a form of partial verification bias.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For paired screening tests with bivariate normally distributed scores, we give formulae and programs to quantify the effect of <it>paired screening trial bias </it>on a paired comparison of area under the curves. We fix the prevalence of disease, and the chance a diseased subject manifests signs and symptoms. We derive the formulas for true sensitivity and specificity, and those for the sensitivity and specificity observed by the study investigator.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The observed area under the ROC curves is quite different from the true area under the ROC curves. The typical direction of the bias is a strong inflation in sensitivity, paired with a concomitant slight deflation of specificity.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In paired trials of screening tests, when area under the ROC curve is used as the metric, bias may lead researchers to make the wrong decision as to which screening test is better.</p

Glioblastoma multiforme with oligodendroglial component (GBMO): favorable outcome after post-operative radiotherapy and chemotherapy with nimustine (ACNU) and teniposide (VM26)

BACKGROUND: The presence of an oligodendroglial component within a glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is considered a prognostically favorable factor, but the clinical outcome of patients with glioblastoma multiforme with oligodendroglial component (GBMO) after combined post-operative radiotherapy and chemotherapy has rarely been reported. METHODS: We analyzed overall and progression-free survival in a group of ten consecutive patients initially diagnosed with GBMO between 1996 and 2004 (4.2% of all GBM patients). Median (range) age was 54 (34–73) years, 90% were resected and median radiotherapy dose was 54 (45–60.6) Gy. 80% of patients received post-operative chemotherapy with nimustine (ACNU) and VM26 (teniposide) for a median of 3.5 (1–6) cycles, the remainder were treated with post-operative radiotherapy alone. All specimens were reviewed by an experienced neuropathologist. RESULTS: Neuropathological re-evaluation revealed GBM with an oligodendroglial component of 30% or less in five cases, predominant oligoastrocytic tumors with focal areas of GBM in four patients and WHO grade III oligoastrocytoma with questionable transition to GBM in one patient. Four of ten patients were alive at at 40, 41, 41 and 82 months. The median overall survival (Kaplan-Meier) was 26 months, the 2-year survival rate was 60% (progression-free survival: 9.8 months and 40%, respectively). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, patients with GBMO treated with post-operative radiotherapy and chemotherapy with ACNU/VM26 had a better prognosis than reported for GBM in modern chemoradiation series

First Clinical Investigation of Cone Beam Computed Tomography and Deformable Registration for Adaptive Proton Therapy for Lung Cancer

PURPOSE: An adaptive proton therapy workflow using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) is proposed. It consists of an online evaluation of a fast range-corrected dose distribution based on a virtual CT (vCT) scan. This can be followed by more accurate offline dose recalculation on the vCT scan, which can trigger a rescan CT (rCT) for replanning. METHODS AND MATERIALS: The workflow was tested retrospectively for 20 consecutive lung cancer patients. A diffeomorphic Morphon algorithm was used to generate the lung vCT by deforming the average planning CT onto the CBCT scan. An additional correction step was applied to account for anatomic modifications that cannot be modeled by deformation alone. A set of clinical indicators for replanning were generated according to the water equivalent thickness (WET) and dose statistics and compared with those obtained on the rCT scan. The fast dose approximation consisted of warping the initial planned dose onto the vCT scan according to the changes in WET. The potential under- and over-ranges were assessed as a variation in WET at the target's distal surface. RESULTS: The range-corrected dose from the vCT scan reproduced clinical indicators similar to those of the rCT scan. The workflow performed well under different clinical scenarios, including atelectasis, lung reinflation, and different types of tumor response. Between the vCT and rCT scans, we found a difference in the measured 95% percentile of the over-range distribution of 3.4 ± 2.7 mm. The limitations of the technique consisted of inherent uncertainties in deformable registration and the drawbacks of CBCT imaging. The correction step was adequate when gross errors occurred but could not recover subtle anatomic or density changes in tumors with complex topology. CONCLUSIONS: A proton therapy workflow based on CBCT provided clinical indicators similar to those using rCT for patients with lung cancer with considerable anatomic changes

The stellar halo of the Galaxy

Stellar halos may hold some of the best preserved fossils of the formation history of galaxies. They are a natural product of the merging processes that probably take place during the assembly of a galaxy, and hence may well be the most ubiquitous component of galaxies, independently of their Hubble type. This review focuses on our current understanding of the spatial structure, the kinematics and chemistry of halo stars in the Milky Way. In recent years, we have experienced a change in paradigm thanks to the discovery of large amounts of substructure, especially in the outer halo. I discuss the implications of the currently available observational constraints and fold them into several possible formation scenarios. Unraveling the formation of the Galactic halo will be possible in the near future through a combination of large wide field photometric and spectroscopic surveys, and especially in the era of Gaia.Comment: 46 pages, 16 figures. References updated and some minor changes. Full-resolution version available at http://www.astro.rug.nl/~ahelmi/stellar-halo-review.pd

Thermography imaging during static and controlled thermoregulation in complex regional pain syndrome type 1: diagnostic value and involvement of the central sympathetic system

BACKGROUND: Complex Regional Pain Syndrome type 1 (CRPS1) is a clinical diagnosis based on criteria describing symptoms of the disease. The main aim of the present study was to compare the sensitivity and specificity of calculation methods used to assess thermographic images (infrared imaging) obtained during temperature provocation. The secondary objective was to obtain information about the involvement of the sympathetic system in CRPS1. METHODS: We studied 12 patients in whom CRPS1 was diagnosed according to the criteria of Bruehl. High and low whole body cooling and warming induced and reduced sympathetic vasoconstrictor activity. The degree of vasoconstrictor activity in both hands was monitored using a videothermograph. The sensitivity and specificity of the calculation methods used to assess the thermographic images were calculated. RESULTS: The temperature difference between the hands in the CRPS patients increases significantly when the sympathetic system is provoked. At both the maximum and minimum vasoconstriction no significant differences were found in fingertip temperatures between both hands. CONCLUSION: The majority of CRPS1 patients do not show maximal obtainable temperature differences between the involved and contralateral extremity at room temperature (static measurement). During cold and warm temperature challenges this temperature difference increases significantly. As a result a higher sensitivity and specificity could be achieved in the diagnosis of CRPS1. These findings suggest that the sympathetic efferent system is involved in CRPS1

A calibration protocol for population-specific accelerometer cut-points in children

PurposeTo test a field-based protocol using intermittent activities representative of children\u27s physical activity behaviours, to generate behaviourally valid, population-specific accelerometer cut-points for sedentary behaviour, moderate, and vigorous physical activity.MethodsTwenty-eight children (46% boys) aged 10&ndash;11 years wore a hip-mounted uniaxial GT1M ActiGraph and engaged in 6 activities representative of children\u27s play. A validated direct observation protocol was used as the criterion measure of physical activity. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve analyses were conducted with four semi-structured activities to determine the accelerometer cut-points. To examine classification differences, cut-points were cross-validated with free-play and DVD viewing activities.ResultsCut-points of &le;372, &gt;2160 and &gt;4806 counts&bull;min&minus;1 representing sedentary, moderate and vigorous intensity thresholds, respectively, provided the optimal balance between the related needs for sensitivity (accurately detecting activity) and specificity (limiting misclassification of the activity). Cross-validation data demonstrated that these values yielded the best overall kappa scores (0.97; 0.71; 0.62), and a high classification agreement (98.6%; 89.0%; 87.2%), respectively. Specificity values of 96&ndash;97% showed that the developed cut-points accurately detected physical activity, and sensitivity values (89&ndash;99%) indicated that minutes of activity were seldom incorrectly classified as inactivity.ConclusionThe development of an inexpensive and replicable field-based protocol to generate behaviourally valid and population-specific accelerometer cut-points may improve the classification of physical activity levels in children, which could enhance subsequent intervention and observational studies.<br /

Force-length recording of eye muscles during local-anesthesia surgery in 32 strabismus patients

Abstract. Force-length recordings were made from isolated human eye muscles during strabismus surgery in local, eye-drop anesthesia in 32 adult patients. From each muscle three recordings were made: (1) while the patient looked with the other eye into the field of action of the recorded muscle, (2) looked ahead, and (3) looked out of the field of action of the recorded muscle. Non-innervated eye muscles (state 3) had an approximately exponential relation between force and length. During contraction evoked by letting the patient look ahead or into the field of action of the muscle (states I or 2), the relation between force and length was grossly linear. The approximate spring constants of horizontal rectus muscles that had not been operated on before ranged from 2 to 4 g/mm. In palsies, the degree of muscle paresis could be quantified accurately using this method and, accordingly, cases of true superior oblique palsy could be well differentiated from strabismus sursoadductorius (= upshoot in adduction) that may mimic a superior oblique palsy. In seven patients with Graves' disease of recent onset, affected muscles were found to be very stiff when the other eye looked ahead. It was expected that these stiff muscles would be able to shorten to some extent but would not be able to lengthen, due to fibrosis of the muscle. We found, however, that the affected muscles lengthened considerably when the other eye looked out of the field of action of the muscle. This implies that, in these cases of Graves' disease of recent onset, the raised muscle tension and reduced elasticity of the affected muscles and, hence, the strabismus were primarily caused by active muscle contraction, not by fibrosis

A Novel Role for Mc1r in the Parallel Evolution of Depigmentation in Independent Populations of the Cavefish Astyanax mexicanus

The evolution of degenerate characteristics remains a poorly understood phenomenon. Only recently has the identification of mutations underlying regressive phenotypes become accessible through the use of genetic analyses. Focusing on the Mexican cave tetra Astyanax mexicanus, we describe, here, an analysis of the brown mutation, which was first described in the literature nearly 40 years ago. This phenotype causes reduced melanin content, decreased melanophore number, and brownish eyes in convergent cave forms of A. mexicanus. Crosses demonstrate non-complementation of the brown phenotype in F2 individuals derived from two independent cave populations: Pachón and the linked Yerbaniz and Japonés caves, indicating the same locus is responsible for reduced pigmentation in these fish. While the brown mutant phenotype arose prior to the fixation of albinism in Pachón cave individuals, it is unclear whether the brown mutation arose before or after the fixation of albinism in the linked Yerbaniz/Japonés caves. Using a QTL approach combined with sequence and functional analyses, we have discovered that two distinct genetic alterations in the coding sequence of the gene Mc1r cause reduced pigmentation associated with the brown mutant phenotype in these caves. Our analysis identifies a novel role for Mc1r in the evolution of degenerative phenotypes in blind Mexican cavefish. Further, the brown phenotype has arisen independently in geographically separate caves, mediated through different mutations of the same gene. This example of parallelism indicates that certain genes are frequent targets of mutation in the repeated evolution of regressive phenotypes in cave-adapted species