61 research outputs found
Inflation targeting in Brazil: what difference does a year make?
The adoption of inflation targeting as a monetary policy strategy in Brazil was a convenient way to replace exchange rate rule by targeted inflation in an effort to anchor inflation expectations. This paper briefly evaluates the inflation target experience from three viewpoints: reasons behind the success, difficulties regarding forecasting and the risks ahead. It analyses the factors behind the success as well as the way initial doubts and a second round of mistrust were successfully dealt with. It looks at the empirical difficulties to estimate a reliable Demand Function and examines evidence on the persistence of high interest rates as captured by a Taylor rule. It points out to possible signaling problems in the transmission mechanism that might lead to a weakening of the confidence in the strategy in the future. Section 3 draws conclusions on risks that emerged together with favorable outcomes of the first year. There has been a substantial progress in the overall confidence in monetary policy's management. Inflation targeting has certainly played a relevant role in this gain. However, it looks like we have not got rid of the "thin ice economy" riding in the post-Real era, since dependence of inflation on foreign exchange availability is still high. Thus the Brazilian economy is still excessively dependent on international liquidity fluctuations. As it happened in the past six years, because of the combination of the size of interest rate movements with the persistence of effects, a double barrel destructive effect on investment and banking, good scenarios tend to be too good, and bad scenarios are seen as terrible for assets markets. An appendix note was written by Thomas Wu on the problem of finding a measurement of the output gap for the Brazilian economy.
A sustentabilidade dos déficits externos
Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar o impacto da redução tarifária prevista no Mercosul sobre o emprego setorial no Brasil. A análise Ă© feita atravĂ©s de simulações de um modelo de equilĂbrio geral computável. SĂŁo realizados dois tipos de exercĂcios que diferem em relação Ă s hipĂłteses de funcionamento do mercado de trabalho em alguns setores da economia. No primeiro grupo de exercĂcios, supõe-se que o trabalho Ă© perfeitamente mĂłvel entre todos os setores, enquanto no segundo grupo o mercado de trabalho Ă© segmentado, ou seja, o trabalho Ă© mĂłvel apenas entre alguns setores.
Crescimento econĂ´mico e instabilidade no Brasil.
Economic stabilization generates conditions, though necessary not sufficient, to sustainable growth. From the 60s onwards, the trade-off between stability and economic growth (recognized nowadays as a temporary one, without contents that could enable it to orientate the economic policy) has been the focus of economic policy in Latin America debates. This old controversy still divides economists and politicians in many countries when analyzing losses in economic development caused by the stabilization efforts. As a result, instability has been acknowledged as a growth inhibitor in Latin America, where only in the 90s the stability values merited political prestige. Quite different from Asia, where this transition of principles has happened, at least, twenty years before. This paper analyses inflation as a symptom of instability and evaluates its effects upon economic development. It also reviews Brazilian economic growth history, identifying domestic factors of instability and the international financial markets effects on the relation between instability and Brazilian economic growth in recent years. Finally, the paper provides a brief examination of the conditions to Brazilian economic retaking, without the resumption of uncertainty that frustrates the perspective of a sustainable economic growth.
A securitização de hipotecas no Brasil
Este artigo tem como objetivo estudar as condições necessárias Ă implantação de um mercado lĂquido de letras hipotecárias no Brasil. A consolidação do processo de estabilidade macroeconĂ´mica bem como a diminuição dos nĂveis e volatilidade das taxas de juros sĂŁo condições fundamentais Ă alavancagem do processo. É realizada uma ampla discussĂŁo acerca de qual o indexador mais indicado a substituir a TR na correção das dĂvidas imobiliárias, confrontando-se as vantagens e desvantagens de tais Ăndices. SĂŁo levantados aspectos tais como a necessidade de padronização dos termos dos contratos hipotecários bem como a necessidade de disponibilizar um cadastro com informações completas quanto Ă capacidade de pagamento dos candidatos ao crĂ©dito imobiliário. Desta forma, as apĂłlices resultantes da securitização das hipotecas apresentar-se-ĂŁo como alternativas muito atrativas para investidores que demandem ativos de longo prazo com retornos bastante competitivos e segurança, tais como investidores institucionais que apresentam passivos tambĂ©m de longo prazo. Por fim, Ă© analisada a possibilidade do governo participar mais ativamente do processo de implantação de um mercado de letras hipotecárias, atravĂ©s da criação de empresas mistas que atuem nos trĂŞs principais pilares do sistema, que sĂŁo (i) as agĂŞncias seguradoras de hipotecas; (ii) as agĂŞncias securitizadoras de hipotecas; (iii) as agĂŞncias compradoras de obrigações lastreadas em hipotecas.
Instabilidade e incerteza: curva IS com dados de longo prazo
The IS Curve is the tool with which economists evaluate the restrictive impact of the interest rate on the GDP. This paper presents an estimate of the IS Curve for the Brazilian economy that incorporates data since 1980, that is, also covering the high inflation period. Two undesirable consequences require special attention when we consider this larger sample period. First, the switch in the regime might represent different data generating processes (problem known as structural break). Another effect is a change in the statistical precision with which coefficients can be estimated, consequence of the heterogeneity in the variance of the residuals (a problem called heteroskedasticity). Once these potential problems are controlled, this exercise becomes relevant since, as we will show later, empirical analysis that include in their sample period only data after the beginning of the Real Plan (that is, of the stabilized economy) fail to capture the influence of variables of unquestionable theoretical importance. We illustrate this point by analyzing the effect of the external environment on the internal growth, emphasizing the export channel.
The application of clustering analysis to international private indebtedness
The main goal of this paper is to apply a combination of statistical and connectionist schemes to examine, via clustering analysis, private indebtedness in different countries. Thirty-nine such experiences are used. The relationship between private debts and some macroeconomic variables are discussed in some detail. The clustering performance is improved by taking advantage of specific properties and capacities of each method. The procedures are also applied to a controlled numerical example.
Crescimento com estabilidade em ambiente turbulento: herança dos anos noventa e os novos desafios para a polĂtica econĂ´mica brasileira
Inclui bibliografia: p. 53-54 e notas
Instabilidade e incerteza: curva IS com dados de longo prazo
The IS Curve is the tool with which economists evaluate the restrictive impact of the interest rate on the GDP. This paper presents an estimate of the IS Curve for the Brazilian economy that incorporates data since 1980, that is, also covering the high inflation period. Two undesirable consequences require special attention when we consider this larger sample period. First, the switch in the regime might represent different data generating processes (problem known as structural break). Another effect is a change in the statistical precision with which coefficients can be estimated, consequence of the heterogeneity in the variance of the residuals (a problem called heteroskedasticity). Once these potential problems are controlled, this exercise becomes relevant since, as we will show later, empirical analysis that include in their sample period only data after the beginning of the Real Plan (that is, of the stabilized economy) fail to capture the influence of variables of unquestionable theoretical importance. We illustrate this point by analyzing the effect of the external environment on the internal growth, emphasizing the export channel.IS curve, heteroskedasticity, FGLS
Contas externas e polĂtica monetária
Neste artigo estamos interessados na relação entre a taxa de câmbio, a taxa de juros, o Balanço de Pagamentos e seu financiamento, para a economia brasileira pĂłs-Plano Real. A PolĂtica Monetária possui dois efeitos importantes sobre a questĂŁo do financiamento das contas externas. Em primeiro lugar, aumentos na taxa de juros elevam a disponibilidade de capitais de curto prazo, via atração de investimentos em renda fixa. Em segundo lugar, aumentos na taxa de juros ou aumentos na taxa de câmbio reduzem o tamanho do dĂ©ficit em conta corrente, a partir de seus efeitos sobre o saldo das exportações lĂquidas de bens e serviços nĂŁo fatores. Neste artigo analisaremos as duas vias, apesar de a primeira ter perdido importância a partir de 1999, quando o governo comprometeu-se a limitar o seu dĂ©ficit em conta corrente Ă oferta disponĂvel de investimentos diretos. Em artigo anterior, mostramos que a adoção de um ICM nĂŁo necessariamente prestaria os serviços que dele se poderia esperar, do ponto de vista dos custos de desemprego de uma redução de 2 p.p. na meta inflacionária. Neste artigo, baseado nos efeitos estimados da taxa de câmbio e da taxa de juros sobre as contas externas, concluĂmos que o ICM pode ser Ăştil como um indicador das pressões futuras sobre as contas externas do PaĂs. Assim, programas monetário-cambiais dirigidos para o controle do dĂ©ficit em conta corrente (ou alternativamente, o saldo comercial ou as exportações lĂquidas) podem ser montados a partir de um indicador deste tipo. É claro que se a restrição externa for ativa, ou seja, sempre que o crescimento econĂ´mico estiver restrito pelo financiamento externo, o acompanhamento de um indicador deste tipo pode ser Ăştil para examinar-se os efeitos de prazo mĂ©dio da polĂtica monetário-cambial, na liberação dessa restrição.
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