Agent-Based Markov Modeling for Improved COVID-19 Mitigation Policies

The year 2020 saw the covid-19 virus lead to one of the worst global pandemics in history. As a result, governments around the world have been faced with the challenge of protecting public health while keeping the economy running to the greatest extent possible. Epidemiological models provide insight into the spread of these types of diseases and predict the e_ects of possible intervention policies. However, to date, even the most data-driven intervention policies rely on heuristics. In this paper, we study how reinforcement learning (RL) and Bayesian inference can be used to optimize mitigation policies that minimize economic impact without overwhelming hospital capacity. Our main contributions are (1) a novel agent-based pandemic simulator which, unlike traditional models, is able to model _ne-grained interactions among people at speci_c locations in a community; (2) an RL- based methodology for optimizing _ne-grained mitigation policies within this simulator; and (3) a Hidden Markov Model for predicting infected individuals based on partial observations regarding test results, presence of symptoms, and past physical contacts

Radial Velocity Studies of Close Binary Stars.VIII

Radial-velocity measurements and sine-curve fits to the orbital velocity variations are presented for the seventh set of ten close binary systems: V410 Aur, V523 Cas, QW Gem, V921 Her, V2357 Oph, V1130 Tau, HN UMa, HX UMa, HD 93917, NSV 223. All systems, but three (V523 Cas, HD 93917, NSV 223), were discovered photometrically by the Hipparcos mission. All systems are double-lined (SB2) binaries and all, but the detached, very close system V1130 Tau, are contact binaries. The broadening-function permitted improvement of the orbital elements for V523 Cas, which was the only system observed before for radial velocity variations. Spectroscopic/visual companions were detected for V410 Aur and HX UMa.Comment: AASTeX5, 4 figures, 3 tables, to appear AJ, June 200

Luminosity- and morphology-dependent clustering of galaxies

How does the clustering of galaxies depend on their inner properties like morphological type and luminosity? We address this question in the mathematical framework of marked point processes and clarify the notion of luminosity and morphological segregation. A number of test quantities such as conditional mark-weighted two-point correlation functions are introduced. These descriptors allow for a scale-dependent analysis of luminosity and morphology segregation. Moreover, they break the degeneracy between an inhomogeneous fractal point set and actual present luminosity segregation. Using the Southern Sky Redshift Survey~2 (da Costa et al. 1998, SSRS2) we find both luminosity and morphological segregation at a high level of significance, confirming claims by previous works using these data (Benoist et al. 1996, Willmer et al. 1998). Specifically, the average luminosity and the fluctuations in the luminosity of pairs of galaxies are enhanced out to separations of 15Mpc/h. On scales smaller than 3Mpc/h the luminosities on galaxy pairs show a tight correlation. A comparison with the random-field model indicates that galaxy luminosities depend on the spatial distribution and galaxy-galaxy interactions. Early-type galaxies are also more strongly correlated, indicating morphological segregation. The galaxies in the PSCz catalog (Saunders et al. 2000) do not show significant luminosity segregation. This again illustrates that mainly early-type galaxies contribute to luminosity segregation. However, based on several independent investigations we show that the observed luminosity segregation can not be explained by the morphology-density relation alone.Comment: aastex, emulateapj5, 20 pages, 13 figures, several clarifying comments added, ApJ accepte

Radial Velocity Studies of Close Binary Stars. IX

Radial-velocity measurements and sine-curve fits to the orbital velocity variations are presented for the eighth set of ten close binary systems: AB And, V402 Aur, V445 Cep, V2082 Cyg, BX Dra, V918 Her, V502 Oph, V1363 Ori, KP Peg, V335 Peg. Half of the systems (V445 Cep, V2082 Cyg, V918 Her, V1363 Ori, V335 Peg) were discovered photometrically by the Hipparcos mission and all systems are double-lined (SB2) contact binaries. The broadening function method permitted improvement of the orbital elements for AB And and V502 Oph. The other systems have been observed for radial velocity variations for the first time; in this group are five bright (V<7.5) binaries: V445 Cep, V2082 Cyg, V918 Her, KP Peg and V335 Peg. Several of the studied systems are prime candidates for combined light and radial-velocity synthesis solutions.Comment: 17+ pages, 2 tables, 4 figure

Mark correlations: relating physical properties to spatial distributions

Mark correlations provide a systematic approach to look at objects both distributed in space and bearing intrinsic information, for instance on physical properties. The interplay of the objects' properties (marks) with the spatial clustering is of vivid interest for many applications; are, e.g., galaxies with high luminosities more strongly clustered than dim ones? Do neighbored pores in a sandstone have similar sizes? How does the shape of impact craters on a planet depend on the geological surface properties? In this article, we give an introduction into the appropriate mathematical framework to deal with such questions, i.e. the theory of marked point processes. After having clarified the notion of segregation effects, we define universal test quantities applicable to realizations of a marked point processes. We show their power using concrete data sets in analyzing the luminosity-dependence of the galaxy clustering, the alignment of dark matter halos in gravitational $N$-body simulations, the morphology- and diameter-dependence of the Martian crater distribution and the size correlations of pores in sandstone. In order to understand our data in more detail, we discuss the Boolean depletion model, the random field model and the Cox random field model. The first model describes depletion effects in the distribution of Martian craters and pores in sandstone, whereas the last one accounts at least qualitatively for the observed luminosity-dependence of the galaxy clustering.Comment: 35 pages, 12 figures. to be published in Lecture Notes of Physics, second Wuppertal conference "Spatial statistics and statistical physics

Radial Velocity Studies of Close Binary Stars.VI

Radial-velocity measurements and sine-curve fits to the orbital velocity variations are presented for the sixth set of ten close binary systems: SV Cam, EE Cet, KR Com, V410 Cyg, GM Dra, V972 Her, ET Leo, FS Leo, V2388 Oph, II UMa. All systems except FS Leo are double-lined spectroscopic binaries. The type of FS Leo is unknown while SV Cam is a close, detached binary; all remaining systems are contact binaries. Eight binaries (all except SV Cam and V401 Cyg) are the recent photometric discoveries of the Hipparcos satellite project. Five systems, EE Cet, KR Com, V401 Cyg, V2388 Oph, II UMa, are members of visual/spectroscopic triple systems. We were able to observe the close binary system EE Cet separately of its companion, but in the remaining four systems we could separate the spectral components only through the use of the broadening-function approach. Several of the studied systems are prime candidates for combined light and radial-velocity synthesis solutions.Comment: AASTeX5, 5 figures, 2 tables, modified after the AJ revie