Simulação da precipitação diária para Parnaíba e Teresina, PI, em planilha eletrônica Daily rainfall simulation in Parnaíba and Teresina - Brazil, using a spreadsheet

Os estudos envolvendo precipitação pluviométrica são bastante dificultados devido ao fato das séries históricas disponíveis serem, na maioria dos casos, muito pequenas para efetuá-los. Desta forma, faz-se necessário dispor de uma técnica de simulação estocástica que possibilite a geração de valores diários de precipitação, utilizando-se uma planilha eletrônica. No Estado do Piauí, estudos com esse objetivo são inexistentes, razão por que este trabalho tem o objetivo de simular a precipitação pluviométrica diária para as regiões de Parnaíba e Teresina, PI, através de uma planilha eletrônica. O processo de simulação se baseou no método de Monte Carlo. A ocorrência da precipitação foi determinada através da cadeia de Markov, enquanto a sua magnitude foi estimada pelas funções de distribuição de probabilidades gama e empírica. O modelo utilizado proporcionou estimativas com excelente precisão e exatidão, fato comprovado pelos resultados satisfatórios quanto aos índices de desempenho estatísticos.<br>The studies involving rainfall are quite difficult to conduct due to the fact that the available historical series, in most of the cases, are too small to make them. Thus, it is necessary to adjust a stochastic simulation technique that facilitates the generation of daily rainfall values, using a spreadsheet. In Piauí State, studies with this objective are inexistent for its several regions of agricultural importance. This work was executed with the objective of simulating the daily rainfall for the regions of Parnaíba and Teresina - PI, Brazil, using a spreadsheet. The simulation process was based on Monte Carlo's method. The occurrence of the rainfall was determined through a Markov chain, while its magnitude was estimated by gamma and empirical distribution functions. The model used provided estimates with excellent precision and accuracy, checked by satisfactory results of the statistical performance index

Occurrence of infection with Toxoplasma gondii and factors associated with transmission in broiler chickens and laying hens in different raising systems

Toxoplasmosis is a zoonotic disease caused by the protozoan Toxoplasma gondii. The aim of the present study was to determine the occurrence and identify the risk factors associated with transmission of T. gondii to chickens raised in different systems (free-ranged and confined) to produce eggs or meat. The 810 animals were allocated in two experimental groups according to the production system purpose: 460 broiler chickens (Group 1) and 350 layer chickens (Group 2). In order to analyze the possible factors involved in T. gondii infection in the chickens, an epidemiological questionnaire was developed for all properties.The serological detection of anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies was performed by Indirect Immunofluorescence (IFAT) and by Enzime Linked Imunossorbent Assay (ELISA). Since the agreement index (kappa) between these two serological techniques was considered high, 21.2% of the 810 animals were considered reactive. In Group 1, 12.2% (56/460) were positive, while in the Group 2 the positivity rate was 33.1% (116/350). The production system may be influencing the seropositivity of the animals in both groups. However, only in Group 2 it was possible to notice a statistically significant relationship between the breeding system and the frequency of positive sera. This result indicates that, at least for laying hens, the production system is directly involved in T. gondii infection. The contact with cats in Group 1 did not influence the distribution of seroreactive animals, but in Group 2 a significant relationship was observed. The occurrence of anti-T. gondii antibodies was high in both groups (broiler and posture chickens). Free-ranged chickens raised for egg production proved to be the most exposed group to the T. gondii infection. This can be related to the fact that these animals stay for longer periods in the farms, in direct contact with possibly contaminated soil by the presence of domestic cats