Modeling freshwater quality scenarios with ecosystem-based adaptation in the headwaters of the Cantareira system, Brazil

Although hydrologic models provide hypothesis testing of complex dynamics occurring at catchments, freshwater quality modeling is still incipient at many subtropical headwaters. In Brazil, a few modeling studies assess freshwater nutrients, limiting policies on hydrologic ecosystem services. This paper aims to compare freshwater quality scenarios under different land-use and land-cover (LULC) change, one of them related to ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA), in Brazilian headwaters. Using the spatially semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, nitrate, total phosphorous (TP) and sediment were modeled in catchments ranging from 7.2 to 1037&thinsp;km2. These headwaters were eligible areas of the Brazilian payment for ecosystem services (PES) projects in the Cantareira water supply system, which had supplied water to 9 million people in the São Paulo metropolitan region (SPMR). We considered SWAT modeling of three LULC scenarios: (i) recent past scenario (S1), with historical LULC in 1990; (ii) current land-use scenario (S2), with LULC for the period 2010–2015 with field validation; and (iii) future land-use scenario with PES (S2&thinsp;+&thinsp;EbA). This latter scenario proposed forest cover restoration through EbA following the river basin plan by 2035. These three LULC scenarios were tested with a selected record of rainfall and evapotranspiration observed in 2006–2014, with the occurrence of extreme droughts. To assess hydrologic services, we proposed the hydrologic service index (HSI), as a new composite metric comparing water pollution levels (WPL) for reference catchments, related to the grey water footprint (greyWF) and water yield. On the one hand, water quality simulations allowed for the regionalization of greyWF at spatial scales under LULC scenarios. According to the critical threshold, HSI identified areas as less or more sustainable catchments. On the other hand, conservation practices simulated through the S2&thinsp;+&thinsp;EbA scenario envisaged not only additional and viable best management practices (BMP), but also preventive decision-making at the headwaters of water supply systems.</p

How land use/land cover changes can affect water, flooding and sedimentation in a tropical watershed: a case study using distributed modeling in the Upper Citarum watershed, Indonesia

[EN] Human activity has produced severe LULC changes within the Upper Citarum watershed and these changes are predicted to continue in the future. With an increase in population parallel to a 141% increment in urban areas, a reduction of rice fields and the replacement of forests with cultivations have been found in the past. Accordingly, LCM model was used to forecast the LULC in 2029. A distributed model called TETIS was implemented in the Upper Citarum watershed to assess the impact of the different historical and future LULC scenarios on its water and sediment cycles. This model was calibrated and validated with different LULCs. For the implementation of the sediment sub-model, it was crucial to use the bathymetric information of the reservoir located at the catchment's outlet. Deforestation and urbanization have been shown to be the most influential factors affecting the alteration of the hydrological and sedimentological processes in the Upper Citarum watershed. The change of LULC decreases evapotranspiration and as a direct consequence, the water yield increased by 15% and 40% during the periods 1994-2014 and 2014-2029, respectively. These increments are caused by the rise of three components in the runoff: overland flow, interflow and base flow. Apart from that, these changes in LULC increased the area of non-tolerable erosion from 412 km(2) in 1994 to 499 km(2) in 2029. The mean sediment yield increased from 3.1 Mton -yr(-1) in the 1994 LULC scenario to 6.7 Mton-yr(-1) in the 2029 LULC scenario. An increment of this magnitude will be catastrophic for the operation of the Saguling Dam.This study was partially funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the research projects TETISMED (CGL2014-58,127-C3-3-R) and TETISCHANGE (RTI2018-093717-B-I00). The authors are also thankful to the Directorate General of Higher Education of Indonesia (DIKTI) for the Ph.D. funding of the first author.Siswanto, SY.; Francés, F. (2019). How land use/land cover changes can affect water, flooding and sedimentation in a tropical watershed: a case study using distributed modeling in the Upper Citarum watershed, Indonesia. Environmental Earth Sciences. 78(17):1-15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8561-0S115781