Approaches to the evaluation of outbreak detection methods

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of methods are being developed for the early detection of infectious disease outbreaks which could be naturally occurring or as a result of bioterrorism; however, no standardised framework for examining the usefulness of various outbreak detection methods exists. To promote comparability between studies, it is essential that standardised methods are developed for the evaluation of outbreak detection methods. METHODS: This analysis aims to review approaches used to evaluate outbreak detection methods and provide a conceptual framework upon which recommendations for standardised evaluation methods can be based. We reviewed the recently published literature for reports which evaluated methods for the detection of infectious disease outbreaks in public health surveillance data. Evaluation methods identified in the recent literature were categorised according to the presence of common features to provide a conceptual basis within which to understand current approaches to evaluation. RESULTS: There was considerable variation in the approaches used for the evaluation of methods for the detection of outbreaks in public health surveillance data, and appeared to be no single approach of choice. Four main approaches were used to evaluate performance, and these were labelled the Descriptive, Derived, Epidemiological and Simulation approaches. Based on the approaches identified, we propose a basic framework for evaluation and recommend the use of multiple approaches to evaluation to enable a comprehensive and contextualised description of outbreak detection performance. CONCLUSION: The varied nature of performance evaluation demonstrated in this review supports the need for further development of evaluation methods to improve comparability between studies. Our findings indicate that no single approach can fulfil all evaluation requirements. We propose that the cornerstone approaches to evaluation identified provide key contributions to support internal and external validity and comparability of study findings, and suggest these be incorporated into future recommendations for performance assessment

Incidence of Respiratory Virus-Associated Pneumonia in Urban Poor Young Children of Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2009–2011

Pneumonia is the leading cause of childhood death in Bangladesh. We conducted a longitudinal study to estimate the incidence of virus-associated pneumonia in children aged <2 years in a low-income urban community in Dhaka, Bangladesh.We followed a cohort of children for two years. We collected nasal washes when children presented with respiratory symptoms. Study physicians diagnosed children with cough and age-specific tachypnea and positive lung findings as pneumonia case-patients. We tested respiratory samples for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinoviruses, human metapneumovirus (HMPV), influenza viruses, human parainfluenza viruses (HPIV 1, 2, 3), and adenoviruses using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assays.Between April 2009-March 2011, we followed 515 children for 730 child-years. We identified a total of 378 pneumonia episodes, 77% of the episodes were associated with a respiratory viral pathogen. The overall incidence of pneumonia associated with a respiratory virus infection was 40/100 child-years. The annual incidence of pneumonia/100 child-years associated with a specific respiratory virus in children aged < 2 years was 12.5 for RSV, 6 for rhinoviruses, 6 for HMPV, 4 for influenza viruses, 3 for HPIV and 2 for adenoviruses.Young children in Dhaka are at high risk of childhood pneumonia and the majority of these episodes are associated with viral pathogens. Developing effective low-cost strategies for prevention are a high priority

Towards an integrated approach in surveillance of vector-borne diseases in Europe

Vector borne disease (VBD) emergence is a complex and dynamic process. Interactions between multiple disciplines and responsible health and environmental authorities are often needed for an effective early warning, surveillance and control of vectors and the diseases they transmit. To fully appreciate this complexity, integrated knowledge about the human and the vector population is desirable. In the current paper, important parameters and terms of both public health and medical entomology are defined in order to establish a common language that facilitates collaboration between the two disciplines. Special focus is put on the different VBD contexts with respect to the current presence or absence of the disease, the pathogen and the vector in a given location. Depending on the context, whether a VBD is endemic or not, surveillance activities are required to assess disease burden or threat, respectively. Following a decision for action, surveillance activities continue to assess trends

Inhibition of Competence Development, Horizontal Gene Transfer and Virulence in Streptococcus pneumoniae by a Modified Competence Stimulating Peptide

Competence stimulating peptide (CSP) is a 17-amino acid peptide pheromone secreted by Streptococcus pneumoniae. Upon binding of CSP to its membrane-associated receptor kinase ComD, a cascade of signaling events is initiated, leading to activation of the competence regulon by the response regulator ComE. Genes encoding proteins that are involved in DNA uptake and transformation, as well as virulence, are upregulated. Previous studies have shown that disruption of key components in the competence regulon inhibits DNA transformation and attenuates virulence. Thus, synthetic analogues that competitively inhibit CSPs may serve as attractive drugs to control pneumococcal infection and to reduce horizontal gene transfer during infection. We performed amino acid substitutions on conserved amino acid residues of CSP1 in an effort to disable DNA transformation and to attenuate the virulence of S. pneumoniae. One of the mutated peptides, CSP1-E1A, inhibited development of competence in DNA transformation by outcompeting CSP1 in time and concentration-dependent manners. CSP1-E1A reduced the expression of pneumococcal virulence factors choline binding protein D (CbpD) and autolysin A (LytA) in vitro, and significantly reduced mouse mortality after lung infection. Furthermore, CSP1-E1A attenuated the acquisition of an antibiotic resistance gene and a capsule gene in vivo. Finally, we demonstrated that the strategy of using a peptide inhibitor is applicable to other CSP subtype, including CSP2. CSP1-E1A and CSP2-E1A were able to cross inhibit the induction of competence and DNA transformation in pneumococcal strains with incompatible ComD subtypes. These results demonstrate the applicability of generating competitive analogues of CSPs as drugs to control horizontal transfer of antibiotic resistance and virulence genes, and to attenuate virulence during infection by S. pneumoniae

The αGal Epitope of the Histo-Blood Group Antigen Family Is a Ligand for Bovine Norovirus Newbury2 Expected to Prevent Cross-Species Transmission

Among Caliciviridae, the norovirus genus encompasses enteric viruses that infect humans as well as several animal species, causing gastroenteritis. Porcine strains are classified together with human strains within genogroup II, whilst bovine norovirus strains represent genogroup III. Various GI and GII human strains bind to carbohydrates of the histo-blood group family which may be shared among mammalian species. Genetic relatedness of human and animal strains as well as the presence of potentially shared ligands raises the possibility of norovirus cross-species transmission. In the present study, we identified a carbohydrate ligand for the prototype bovine norovirus strain Bo/Newbury2/76/UK (NB2). Attachment of virus-like particles (VLPs) of the NB2 strain to bovine gut tissue sections showed a complete match with the staining by reagents recognizing the Galα1,3 motif. Alpha-galactosidase treatment confirmed involvement of a terminal alpha-linked galactose. Specific binding of VLPs to the αGal epitope (Galα3Galβ4GlcNAcβ-R) was observed. The binding of Galα3GalαOMe to rNB2 VLPs was characterized at atomic resolution employing saturation transfer difference (STD) NMR experiments. Transfection of human cells with an α1,3galactosyltransferase cDNA allowed binding of NB2 VLPs, whilst inversely, attachment to porcine vascular endothelial cells was lost when the cells originated from an α1,3galactosyltransferase KO animal. The αGal epitope is expressed in all mammalian species with the exception of the Hominidaea family due to the inactivation of the α1,3galactosyltransferase gene (GGTA1). Accordingly, the NB2 carbohydrate ligand is absent from human tissues. Although expressed on porcine vascular endothelial cells, we observed that unlike in cows, it is not present on gut epithelial cells, suggesting that neither man nor pig could be infected by the NB2 bovine strain