The academic backbone: longitudinal continuities in educational achievement from secondary school and medical school to MRCP(UK) and the specialist register in UK medical students and doctors

Background: Selection of medical students in the UK is still largely based on prior academic achievement, although doubts have been expressed as to whether performance in earlier life is predictive of outcomes later in medical school or post-graduate education. This study analyses data from five longitudinal studies of UK medical students and doctors from the early 1970s until the early 2000s. Two of the studies used the AH5, a group test of general intelligence (that is, intellectual aptitude). Sex and ethnic differences were also analyzed in light of the changing demographics of medical students over the past decades. Methods: Data from five cohort studies were available: the Westminster Study (began clinical studies from 1975 to 1982), the 1980, 1985, and 1990 cohort studies (entered medical school in 1981, 1986, and 1991), and the University College London Medical School (UCLMS) Cohort Study (entered clinical studies in 2005 and 2006). Different studies had different outcome measures, but most had performance on basic medical sciences and clinical examinations at medical school, performance in Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians (MRCP(UK)) examinations, and being on the General Medical Council Specialist Register. Results: Correlation matrices and path analyses are presented. There were robust correlations across different years at medical school, and medical school performance also predicted MRCP(UK) performance and being on the GMC Specialist Register. A-levels correlated somewhat less with undergraduate and post-graduate performance, but there was restriction of range in entrants. General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE)/O-level results also predicted undergraduate and post-graduate outcomes, but less so than did A-level results, but there may be incremental validity for clinical and post-graduate performance. The AH5 had some significant correlations with outcome, but they were inconsistent. Sex and ethnicity also had predictive effects on measures of educational attainment, undergraduate, and post-graduate performance. Women performed better in assessments but were less likely to be on the Specialist Register. Non-white participants generally underperformed in undergraduate and post-graduate assessments, but were equally likely to be on the Specialist Register. There was a suggestion of smaller ethnicity effects in earlier studies. Conclusions: The existence of the Academic Backbone concept is strongly supported, with attainment at secondary school predicting performance in undergraduate and post-graduate medical assessments, and the effects spanning many years. The Academic Backbone is conceptualized in terms of the development of more sophisticated underlying structures of knowledge ('cognitive capital’ and 'medical capital’). The Academic Backbone provides strong support for using measures of educational attainment, particularly A-levels, in student selection

Construct-level predictive validity of educational attainment and intellectual aptitude tests in medical student selection: meta-regression of six UK longitudinal studies

Background: Measures used for medical student selection should predict future performance during training. A problem for any selection study is that predictor-outcome correlations are known only in those who have been selected, whereas selectors need to know how measures would predict in the entire pool of applicants. That problem of interpretation can be solved by calculating construct-level predictive validity, an estimate of true predictor-outcome correlation across the range of applicant abilities. Methods: Construct-level predictive validities were calculated in six cohort studies of medical student selection and training (student entry, 1972 to 2009) for a range of predictors, including A-levels, General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs)/O-levels, and aptitude tests (AH5 and UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT)). Outcomes included undergraduate basic medical science and finals assessments, as well as postgraduate measures of Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom (MRCP(UK)) performance and entry in the Specialist Register. Construct-level predictive validity was calculated with the method of Hunter, Schmidt and Le (2006), adapted to correct for right-censorship of examination results due to grade inflation. Results: Meta-regression analyzed 57 separate predictor-outcome correlations (POCs) and construct-level predictive validities (CLPVs). Mean CLPVs are substantially higher (.450) than mean POCs (.171). Mean CLPVs for first-year examinations, were high for A-levels (.809; CI: .501 to .935), and lower for GCSEs/O-levels (.332; CI: .024 to .583) and UKCAT (mean = .245; CI: .207 to .276). A-levels had higher CLPVs for all undergraduate and postgraduate assessments than did GCSEs/O-levels and intellectual aptitude tests. CLPVs of educational attainment measures decline somewhat during training, but continue to predict postgraduate performance. Intellectual aptitude tests have lower CLPVs than A-levels or GCSEs/O-levels. Conclusions: Educational attainment has strong CLPVs for undergraduate and postgraduate performance, accounting for perhaps 65% of true variance in first year performance. Such CLPVs justify the use of educational attainment measure in selection, but also raise a key theoretical question concerning the remaining 35% of variance (and measurement error, range restriction and right-censorship have been taken into account). Just as in astrophysics, ‘dark matter’ and ‘dark energy’ are posited to balance various theoretical equations, so medical student selection must also have its ‘dark variance’, whose nature is not yet properly characterized, but explains a third of the variation in performance during training. Some variance probably relates to factors which are unpredictable at selection, such as illness or other life events, but some is probably also associated with factors such as personality, motivation or study skills

Assessment at UK medical schools varies substantially in volume, type and intensity and correlates with postgraduate attainment

BACKGROUND: In the United Kingdom (UK), medical schools are free to develop local systems and policies that govern student assessment and progression. Successful completion of an undergraduate medical degree results in the automatic award of a provisional licence to practice medicine by the General Medical Council (GMC). Such a licensing process relies heavily on the assumption that individual schools develop similarly rigorous assessment policies. Little work has evaluated variability of undergraduate medical assessment between medical schools. That absence is important in the light of the GMC's recent announcement of the introduction of the UKMLA (UK Medical Licensing Assessment) for all doctors who wish to practise in the UK. The present study aimed to quantify and compare the volume, type and intensity of summative assessment across medicine (A100) courses in the United Kingdom, and to assess whether intensity of assessment correlates with the postgraduate attainment of doctors from these schools. METHODS: Locally knowledgeable students in each school were approached to take part in guided-questionnaire interviews via telephone or Skype(TM). Their understanding of assessment at their medical school was probed, and later validated with the assessment department of the respective medical school. We gathered data for 25 of 27 A100 programmes in the UK and compared volume, type and intensity of assessment between schools. We then correlated these data with the mean first-attempt score of graduates sitting MRCGP and MRCP(UK), as well as with UKFPO selection measures. RESULTS: The median written assessment volume across all schools was 2000 min (mean = 2027, SD = 586, LQ = 1500, UQ = 2500, range = 1000-3200) and 1400 marks (mean = 1555, SD = 463, LQ = 1200, UQ = 1800, range = 1100-2800). The median practical assessment volume was 400 min (mean = 472, SD = 207, LQ = 400, UQ = 600, range = 200-1000). The median intensity (minutes per mark ratio) of summative written assessment was 1.24 min per mark (mean = 1.28, SD = 0.30, LQ = 1.11, UQ = 1.37, range = 0.85-2.08). An exploratory analysis suggested a significant correlation of total assessment time with mean first-attempt score on both the knowledge and the clinical assessments of MRCGP and of MRCP(UK). CONCLUSIONS: There are substantial differences in the volume, format and intensity of undergraduate assessment between UK medical schools. These findings suggest a potential for differences in the reliability of detecting poorly performing students, or differences in identifying and stratifying academically equivalent students for ranking in the Foundation Programme Application System (FPAS). Furthermore, these differences appear to directly correlate with performance in postgraduate examinations. Taken together, our findings highlight highly variable local assessment procedures that warrant further investigation to establish their potential impact on students

UBC-Nepal expedition: markedly lower cerebral blood flow in high-altitude Sherpa children compared with children residing at sea level

Developmental cerebral hemodynamic adaptations to chronic high-altitude exposure, such as in the Sherpa population, are largely unknown. To examine hemodynamic adaptations in the developing human brain, we assessed common carotid (CCA), internal carotid (ICA), and vertebral artery (VA) flow and middle cerebral artery (MCA) velocity in 25 (9.6 ± 1.0 yr old, 129 ± 9 cm, 27 ± 8 kg, 14 girls) Sherpa children (3,800 m, Nepal) and 25 (9.9 ± 0.7 yr old, 143 ± 7 cm, 34 ± 6 kg, 14 girls) age-matched sea level children (344 m, Canada) during supine rest. Resting gas exchange, blood pressure, oxygen saturation and heart rate were assessed. Despite comparable age, height and weight were lower (both P < 0.01) in Sherpa compared with sea level children. Mean arterial pressure, heart rate, and ventilation were similar, whereas oxygen saturation (95 ± 2 vs. 99 ± 1%, P < 0.01) and end-tidal Pco2 (24 ± 3 vs. 36 ± 3 Torr, P < 0.01) were lower in Sherpa children. Global cerebral blood flow was ∼30% lower in Sherpa compared with sea level children. This was reflected in a lower ICA flow (283 ± 108 vs. 333 ± 56 ml/min, P = 0.05), VA flow (78 ± 26 vs. 118 ± 35 ml/min, P < 0.05), and MCA velocity (72 ± 14 vs. 88 ± 14 cm/s, P < 0.01). CCA flow was similar between Sherpa and sea level children (425 ± 92 vs. 441 ± 81 ml/min, P = 0.52). Scaling flow and oxygen uptake for differences in vessel diameter and body size, respectively, led to the same findings. A lower cerebral blood flow in Sherpa children may reflect specific cerebral hemodynamic adaptations to chronic hypoxia

Can Score Databanks Help Teaching?

Basic courses in most medical schools assess students' performance by conferring scores. The objective of this work is to use a large score databank for the early identification of students with low performance and to identify course trends based on the mean of students' grades. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We studied scores from 2,398 medical students registered in courses over a period of 10 years. Students in the first semester were grouped into those whose ratings remained in the lower quartile in two or more courses (low-performance) and students who had up to one course in the lower quartile (high-performance). ROC curves were built, aimed at the identification of a cut-off average score in the first semesters that would be able to predict low performances in future semesters. Moreover, to follow the long-term pattern of each course, the mean of all scores conferred in a semester was compared to the overall course mean obtained by averaging 10 years of data. Individuals in the low-performance group had a higher risk of being in the lower quartile of at least one course in the second semester (relative risk 3.907; 95% CI: 3.378-4.519) and in the eighth semester (relative risk 2.873; 95% CI: 2.495-3.308). The prediction analysis revealed that an average score of 7.188 in the first semester could identify students that presented scores below the lower quartiles in both the second and eighth semesters (p<0.0001 for both AUC). When scores conferred by single courses were compared over time, three time-trend patterns emerged: low variation, upward trend and erratic pattern. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: An early identification of students with low performance may be useful in promoting pedagogical strategies for these individuals. Evaluation of the time trend of scores conferred by courses may help departments monitoring changes in personnel and methodology that may affect a student's performance

The United Kingdom Research study into Ethnicity And COVID-19 outcomes in Healthcare workers (UK-REACH): Protocol for a prospective longitudinal cohort study of healthcare and ancillary workers in UK healthcare settings

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant morbidity and mortality, and has devastated economies in many countries. Amongst the groups identified as being at increased risk from COVID-19 are healthcare workers (HCWs) and ethnic minority groups. Emerging evidence suggests HCWs from ethnic minority groups are at increased risk of adverse COVID-19-related physical and mental health outcomes. To date there has been no large-scale analysis of these risks in UK healthcare workers or ancillary workers in healthcare settings, stratified by ethnicity or occupation type, and adjusted for potential confounders. This paper reports the protocol for a prospective longitudinal questionnaire study of UK HCWs, as part of the UK-REACH programme (The United Kingdom Research study into Ethnicity And COVID-19 outcomes in Healthcare workers). Methods and analysis: A baseline questionnaire with follow-up questionnaires at 4 and 8 months will be administered to a national cohort of UK healthcare workers and ancillary workers in healthcare settings, and those registered with UK healthcare regulators. With consent, data will be linked to health records, and participants followed up for 25 years. Univariate associations between ethnicity and primary outcome measures (clinical COVID-19 outcomes, and physical and mental health) and key confounders/explanatory variables will be tested, followed by multivariable analyses to test for associations between ethnicity and key outcomes adjusted for the confounder/explanatory variables, with interactions included as appropriate. Using follow-up data, multilevel models will be used to model changes over time by ethnic group, facilitating understanding of absolute and relative risks in different ethnic groups, and generalisability of findings. Ethics and dissemination: The study is approved by Health Research Authority (reference 20/HRA/4718), and carries minimal risk to participants. We aim to manage the small risk of participant distress due to being asked questions on sensitive topics by clearly indicating on the participant information sheet that the questionnaire covers sensitive topics and that participants are under no obligation to answer these, or indeed any other, questions, and by providing links to support organisations. Results will be disseminated with reports to Government and papers uploaded to pre-print servers and submitted to peer reviewed journals. Registration details Trial ID: ISRCTN11811602 STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THIS STUDY National, UK-wide, study, aiming to capture variety of healthcare worker job roles including ancillary workers in healthcare settings. Longitudinal study including three waves of questionnaire data collection, and linkage to administrative data over 25 years, with consent. Unique support from all major UK healthcare worker regulators, relevant healthcare worker organisations, and a Professional Expert Panel to increase participant uptake and the validity of findings. Potential for self-selection bias and low response rates, and the use of electronic invitations and online data collection makes it harder to reach ancillary workers without regular access to work email addresses

Characterisation of the Immunophenotype of Dogs with Primary Immune-Mediated Haemolytic Anaemia

Immune-mediated haemolytic anaemia (IMHA) is reported to be the most common autoimmune disease of dogs, resulting in significant morbidity and mortality in affected animals. Haemolysis is caused by the action of autoantibodies, but the immunological changes that result in their production have not been elucidated.To investigate the frequency of regulatory T cells (Tregs) and other lymphocyte subsets and to measure serum concentrations of cytokines and peripheral blood mononuclear cell expression of cytokine genes in dogs with IMHA, healthy dogs and dogs with inflammatory diseases.19 dogs with primary IMHA, 22 dogs with inflammatory diseases and 32 healthy control dogs.Residual EDTA-anti-coagulated blood samples were stained with fluorophore-conjugated monoclonal antibodies and analysed by flow cytometry to identify Tregs and other lymphocyte subsets. Total RNA was also extracted from peripheral blood mononuclear cells to investigate cytokine gene expression, and concentrations of serum cytokines (interleukins 2, 6 10, CXCL-8 and tumour necrosis factor α) were measured using enhanced chemiluminescent assays. Principal component analysis was used to investigate latent variables that might explain variability in the entire dataset.There was no difference in the frequency or absolute numbers of Tregs among groups, nor in the proportions of other lymphocyte subsets. The concentrations of pro-inflammatory cytokines were greater in dogs with IMHA compared to healthy controls, but the concentration of IL-10 and the expression of cytokine genes did not differ between groups. Principal component analysis identified four components that explained the majority of the variability in the dataset, which seemed to correspond to different aspects of the immune response.The immunophenotype of dogs with IMHA differed from that of dogs with inflammatory diseases and from healthy control dogs; some of these changes could suggest abnormalities in peripheral tolerance that permit development of autoimmune disease. The frequency of Tregs did not differ between groups, suggesting that deficiency in the number of these cells is not responsible for development of IMHA

Ethnic differences in SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy in United Kingdom healthcare workers: Results from the UK-REACH prospective nationwide cohort study

Background: In most countries, healthcare workers (HCWs) represent a priority group for vaccination against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) due to their elevated risk of COVID-19 and potential contribution to nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Concerns have been raised that HCWs from ethnic minority groups are more likely to be vaccine hesitant (defined by the World Health Organisation as refusing or delaying a vaccination) than those of White ethnicity, but there are limited data on SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy and its predictors in UK HCWs. Methods: Nationwide prospective cohort study and qualitative study in a multi-ethnic cohort of clinical and non-clinical UK HCWs. We analysed ethnic differences in SARS-CoV-2 vaccine hesitancy adjusting for demographics, vaccine trust, and perceived risk of COVID-19. We explored reasons for hesitancy in qualitative data using a framework analysis. Findings: 11,584 HCWs were included in the cohort analysis. 23% (2704) reported vaccine hesitancy. Compared to White British HCWs (21.3% hesitant), HCWs from Black Caribbean (54.2%), Mixed White and Black Caribbean (38.1%), Black African (34.4%), Chinese (33.1%), Pakistani (30.4%), and White Other (28.7%) ethnic groups were significantly more likely to be hesitant. In adjusted analysis, Black Caribbean (aOR 3.37, 95% CI 2.11 - 5.37), Black African (aOR 2.05, 95% CI 1.49 - 2.82), White Other ethnic groups (aOR 1.48, 95% CI 1.19 - 1.84) were significantly more likely to be hesitant. Other independent predictors of hesitancy were younger age, female sex, higher score on a COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs scale, lower trust in employer, lack of influenza vaccine uptake in the previous season, previous COVID-19, and pregnancy. Qualitative data from 99 participants identified the following contributors to hesitancy: lack of trust in government and employers, safety concerns due to the speed of vaccine development, lack of ethnic diversity in vaccine studies, and confusing and conflicting information. Participants felt uptake in ethnic minority communities might be improved through inclusive communication, involving HCWs in the vaccine rollout, and promoting vaccination through trusted networks. Interpretation: Despite increased risk of COVID-19, HCWs from some ethnic minority groups are more likely to be vaccine hesitant than their White British colleagues. Strategies to build trust and dispel myths surrounding the COVID-19 vaccine in these communities are urgently required. Emphasis should be placed on the safety and benefit of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in pregnancy and in those with previous COVID-19. Public health communications should be inclusive, non-stigmatising and utilise trusted networks