Referendum Design, Quorum Rules and Turnout

In this article, we focus on the consequences of quorum requirements for turnout in referendums. We use a rational choice, decision theoretic voting model to demonstrate that participation quorums change the incentives some electors face, inducing those who oppose changes in the status quo and expect to be in the minority to abstain. As a result, paradoxically, participation quorums decrease electoral participation. We test our model’s predictions using data for all referendums held in current European Union countries from 1970 until 2007, and show that the existence of a participation quorums increases abstention by more than ten percentage points.Referendum Design; Voter turnout

Growth, Centrism and Semi-Presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese General Elections

Electoral behaviour in recently established democracies has been more frequently treated from the point of view of its unpredictability, volatility and personalistic elements than that of its "fundamentals". In this paper, we wish to contribute to redress this imbalance by advancing a forecasting model for general elections in a young democracy, Portugal. Building on the very familiar notion that the vote for the incumbent can be predicted on the basis of "economics" and "politics", we capture "economics" through a nonlinear specification of economic growth. Furthermore, we include two structural features of Portuguese politics, which have entailed a systematic electoral punishment for the centre-left Socialist Party as the incumbent and for all incumbents involved in political conflicts with the elected president in Portugal's semi-presidentialism.Forecasting; Portuguese general elections; Economics and elections; Semi-Presidentialism

How quorum rules distort referendum outcomes: evidence from a pivotal voter model

In many jurisdictions, whether referendum results are binding depend on certain legally defined quorum requirements. With a pivotal-voter model, we examine how quorum requirements affect voter’s behavior. We conclude that quorums can be the cause of lower turnout and that they can deliver outcomes that are an inadequate basis to make inferences about collective preferences. We further conclude that quorums may help minorities to impose their will on majorities and that they may create a bias against the status quo. Finally, they generate situations under which the secrecy of the vote is called into question.

Schwarzschild-like black holes: Light-like trajectories and massless scalar absorption

Black holes are among the most intriguing objects in nature. They are believed to be fully described by General Relativity (GR), and the astrophysical black holes are expected to belong to the Kerr family, obeying the no-hair theorems. Alternative theories of gravity or parameterized deviations of GR allow black hole solutions, which have additional parameters other than mass and angular momentum. We analyze a Schwarzschild-like metric, proposed by Johannsen and Psaltis, characterized by its mass and a deformation parameter. We compute the absorption cross section of massless scalar waves for different values of this deformation parameter and compare it with the corresponding scalar absorption cross section of the Schwarzschild black hole. We also present analytical approximations for the absorption cross section in the high-frequency regime. We check the consistence of our results comparing the numerical and analytical approaches, finding excellent agreement.Comment: 8 pages, 14 figure

The larval development of palaemonid shrimps from the Amazon Region reared in the laboratory. IV. Abbreviated development of Palaemonetes ivonicus HOLTHUIS, 1950 (Crustacea: Decapoda)

The larval development of the freshwater shrimp Palaemonetes ivonicus was studied under laboratory conditions, based upon offsprings of ovigerous females collected in a várzea lake of the Solimões River system. The females carry few (12 to 43), large (2.31 ± 0.14 x 1.49 ± 0.09 mm), yolk-rich eggs. The species goes through three larval stages without feeding. The newly-hatched larva has sossile eyes and all the appendages, except for the uropods; however, some of the appendages still exhibit a rudimentary form. Larva II has stalked eyes and functional walking legs. Larva III has free uropods. Metamorphosis occurs between four and six days after hatching. Descriptions and illustrations of the larval and first juvenile stages are given

A taxonomic revision of the Brazilian freshwater crabs of the family Pseudothelphusidae (Crustacea, Decapoda)

The collections of freshwater crabs of the family Pseudothelphusidae deposited in the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Museu de Zoologia da Universidade de São Paulo and Forschungsinstitut Senckenberg were studied. Redescriptions of the species that occur in Brazil are made, with notes on the ecology and geographic distribution. A new species of Kingsleya for the Trombetas, Curuá-Una and Uatumã rivers is described and new records, including one of Fredius reflexifrons to Peru, are reported. A terminology in Portuguese for the gonopodal structures is proposed. Keys to genera and species are given either in Portuguese or in English, as well as a map of the geographic distribution of this family in Brazil