Welfare Impacts of Property Rights in the Seed Industry

The paper examines the welfare impact of different intellectual property right (IPR) regimes in private sector seed research. The model takes into account the period after expiration of IPR protection, and requires a simultaneous equilibrium in the markets for R&D, seeds, and final product (grain). Simulation results show that with the exception of R&D productivity, the optimal level of IPR protection is remarkably insensitive to parameters of the model. There is a range of IPR appropriability levels where the interests of consumers and producers (taken together) are complementary to the interests of R&D firms, and another range of appropriability levels where the welfare of producers and consumers can be increased only at the expense of the welfare R&D firms. These results may explain some of the acrimony in the debate about plant gene patenting and genetic use-restriction technologies (GURTs). Results suggest that the optimum IPR appropriability level is greater than that which exists in the North American seed corn market, but lower than would exist if GURTs were to become widely used. The optimal appropriability level is much higher than that which is achieved in situations where crops are open pollinated or where IPR protection is limited, and this may help explain and justify the relevance of public research in these situations.Crop Production/Industries,

Economic Perspectives on GMO Market Segregation

None

The Long-Term Structure of Commodity Futures

Futures markets on agricultural commodities typically trade with maximum maturity dates of less than four years. If these markets did trade with maturities eight or ten years distant, futures prices would have value as price forecasts and as a way to structure long-term swaps and insurance contracts. Agricultural commodity markets generally exhibit mean reversion in spot prices and convenience yields. Spot markets also exhibit seasonality. This study develops and implements a procedure to generate long-term futures curves from existing futures prices. Data on lean hogs and soybeans are used to show that the method provides plausible results

Risk factors for cancer of the oral cavity and oro-pharynx in Cuba

In terms of worldwide levels, Cuba has an intermediate incidence of cancer of the oral cavity and oro-pharynx. We studied 200 cases of cancer of the oral cavity and pharynx, of whom 57 women (median age = 64) and 200 hospital controls, frequency matched with cases by age and sex, in relation to smoking and drinking history, intake of 25 foods or food groups, indicators of oral hygiene and sexual activity, and history of sexually transmitted diseases. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were obtained from unconditional multiple logistic regressions and adjusted for age, sex, area of residence, education, and smoking and drinking habits. In the multivariate model, high educational level and white-collar occupation, but not white race, were associated with halving of oral cancer risk. Smoking ≥30 cigarettes per day showed an OR of 20.8 (95% CI: 8.9–48.3), similar to smoking ≥4 cigars daily (OR = 20.5). Drinking ≥ 70 alcoholic drinks per week showed an OR of 5.7 (95% CI: 1.8–18.5). Hard liquors were by far the largest source of alcohol. Increased risk was associated with the highest tertile of intake for maize (OR = 1.9), meat (OR = 2.2) and ham and salami (OR = 2.0), whereas high fruit intake was associated with significantly decreased risk (OR = 0.4). Among indicators of dental care, number of missing teeth and poor general oral condition at oral inspection showed ORs of 2.7 and 2.6, respectively. Number of sexual partners, marriages or contacts with prostitutes, practice of oral sex and history of various sexually transmitted diseases, including genital warts, were not associated with oral cancer risk. 82% of oral cancer cases in Cuba were attributable to tobacco smoking, 19% to smoking cigars or pipe only. The fractions attributable to alcohol drinking (7%) and low fruit intake (11%) were more modest. Thus, decreases in cigarette and cigar smoking are at present the key to oral cancer prevention in Cuba. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co

Higher COVID-19 pneumonia risk associated with anti-IFN-α than with anti-IFN-ω auto-Abs in children

We found that 19 (10.4%) of 183 unvaccinated children hospitalized for COVID-19 pneumonia had autoantibodies (auto-Abs) neutralizing type I IFNs (IFN-alpha 2 in 10 patients: IFN-alpha 2 only in three, IFN-alpha 2 plus IFN-omega in five, and IFN-alpha 2, IFN-omega plus IFN-beta in two; IFN-omega only in nine patients). Seven children (3.8%) had Abs neutralizing at least 10 ng/ml of one IFN, whereas the other 12 (6.6%) had Abs neutralizing only 100 pg/ml. The auto-Abs neutralized both unglycosylated and glycosylated IFNs. We also detected auto-Abs neutralizing 100 pg/ml IFN-alpha 2 in 4 of 2,267 uninfected children (0.2%) and auto-Abs neutralizing IFN-omega in 45 children (2%). The odds ratios (ORs) for life-threatening COVID-19 pneumonia were, therefore, higher for auto-Abs neutralizing IFN-alpha 2 only (OR [95% CI] = 67.6 [5.7-9,196.6]) than for auto-Abs neutralizing IFN-. only (OR [95% CI] = 2.6 [1.2-5.3]). ORs were also higher for auto-Abs neutralizing high concentrations (OR [95% CI] = 12.9 [4.6-35.9]) than for those neutralizing low concentrations (OR [95% CI] = 5.5 [3.1-9.6]) of IFN-omega and/or IFN-alpha 2