The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian analysis

Background: Accurate measures of the severity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (pH1N1) are needed to assess the likely impact of an anticipated resurgence in the autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. Severity has been difficult to measure because jurisdictions with large numbers of deaths and other severe outcomes have had too many cases to assess the total number with confidence. Also, detection of severe cases may be more likely, resulting in overestimation of the severity of an average case. We sought to estimate the probabilities that symptomatic infection would lead to hospitalization, ICU admission, and death by combining data from multiple sources. Methods and Findings: We used complementary data from two US cities: Milwaukee attempted to identify cases of medically attended infection whether or not they required hospitalization, while New York City focused on the identification of hospitalizations, intensive care admission or mechanical ventilation (hereafter, ICU), and deaths. New York data were used to estimate numerators for ICU and death, and two sources of data - medically attended cases in Milwaukee or self-reported influenza-like illness (ILI) in New York - were used to estimate ratios of symptomatic cases to hospitalizations. Combining these data with estimates of the fraction detected for each level of severity, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic patients who died (symptomatic case-fatality ratio, sCFR), required ICU (sCIR), and required hospitalization (sCHR), overall and by age category. Evidence, prior information, and associated uncertainty were analyzed in a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. Using medically attended cases and estimates of the proportion of symptomatic cases medically attended, we estimated an sCFR of 0.048% (95% credible interval [CI] 0.026%-0.096%), sCIR of 0.239% (0.134%-0.458%), and sCHR of 1.44% (0.83%-2.64%). Using self-reported ILI, we obtained estimates approximately 7-96lower. sCFR and sCIR appear to be highest in persons aged 18 y and older, and lowest in children aged 5-17 y. sCHR appears to be lowest in persons aged 5-17; our data were too sparse to allow us to determine the group in which it was the highest. Conclusions: These estimates suggest that an autumn-winter pandemic wave of pH1N1 with comparable severity per case could lead to a number of deaths in the range from considerably below that associated with seasonal influenza to slightly higher, but with the greatest impact in children aged 0-4 and adults 18-64. These estimates of impact depend on assumptions about total incidence of infection and would be larger if incidence of symptomatic infection were higher or shifted toward adults, if viral virulence increased, or if suboptimal treatment resulted from stress on the health care system; numbers would decrease if the total proportion of the population symptomatically infected were lower than assumed.published_or_final_versio

Symptomatic asymmetry in the first six months of life: differential diagnosis

Asymmetry in infancy is a clinical condition with a wide variation in appearances (shape, posture, and movement), etiology, localization, and severity. The prevalence of an asymmetric positional preference is 12% of all newborns during the first six months of life. The asymmetry is either idiopathic or symptomatic. Pediatricians and physiotherapists have to distinguish symptomatic asymmetry (SA) from idiopathic asymmetry (IA) when examining young infants with a positional preference to determine the prognosis and the intervention strategy. The majority of cases will be idiopathic, but the initial presentation of a positional preference might be a symptom of a more serious underlying disorder. The purpose of this review is to synthesize the current information on the incidence of SA, as well as the possible causes and the accompanying signs that differentiate SA from IA. This review presents an overview of the nine most prevalent disorders in infants in their first six months of life leading to SA. We have discovered that the literature does not provide a comprehensive analysis of the incidence, characteristics, signs, and symptoms of SA. Knowledge of the presented clues is important in the clinical decision making with regard to young infants with asymmetry. We recommend to design a valid and useful screening instrument

Radiologic evaluation of the ear anatomy in pediatric cholesteatoma

The aim of the study was to describe computed tomography (CT) findings in middle ear cholesteatoma in pediatric patients. A cohort of 32 children with cholesteatoma (3-14 years old) entered the study. From them, 30 presented acquired cholesteatoma (AC), and 2 presented congenital cholesteatoma. All of the children were investigated using CT before surgery of the middle ear and mastoid. Computed tomography was performed with 1- or 2-mm axial and coronal sections of both temporal bones. Nineteen children with AC (63.3%) revealed a diffuse soft-tissue density isodense with muscle, whereas in 6 of them, the mass mimicked inflammation. The remaining revealed localized soft-tissue mass with partially lobulated contour. In AC, ossicular erosion was detected in 23 cases (76.7%), abnormal pneumatization in 19 cases (63.3%), and erosion-blunting of spur and enlargement of middle ear or mastoid in 8 cases (26.7%). The 2 congenital cholesteatomas revealed soft-tissue mass with polypoid densities, while a semicircular canal fistula was detected in one of them. High-resolution CT facilitates early diagnosis and appropriate treatment of pediatric cholesteatoma by assessing the anatomic abnormalities and the extent of disease, which are crucial in middle ear and mastoid surgery. © 2009 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc