Reducing Crime and Violence: Experimental Evidence from Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Liberia

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Economic Association via the DOI in this record.We show that a number of noncognitive skills and preferences, including patience and identity, are malleable in adults, and that investments in them reduce crime and violence. We recruited criminally engaged men and randomized one-half to eight weeks of cognitive behavioral therapy designed to foster self-regulation, patience, and a noncriminal identity and lifestyle. We also randomized $200 grants. Cash alone and therapy alone initially reduced crime and violence, but effects dissipated over time. When cash followed therapy, crime and violence decreased dramatically for at least a year. We hypothesize that cash reinforced therapy's impacts by prolonging learning-by doing, lifestyle changes, and self-investment

Predicting local violence: Evidence from a panel survey in Liberia

Riots, murders, lynchings and other forms of local violence are costly to security forces and society at large. Identifying risk factors and forecasting where local violence is most likely to occur should help allocate scarce peacekeeping and policing resources. Most forecasting exercises of this kind rely on structural or event data, but these have many limitations in the poorest and most war-torn states, where the need for prediction is arguably most urgent. We adopt an alternative approach, applying machine learning techniques to original panel survey data from Liberia to predict collective, interpersonal and extrajudicial violence two years into the future. We first train our models to predict 2010 local violence using 2008 risk factors, then generate forecasts for 2012 before collecting new data. Our models achieve out-of-sample AUCs ranging from 0.65 to 0.74, depending on our specification of the dependent variable. The models also draw our attention to risk factors different from those typically emphasized in studies aimed at causal inference alone. For example, we find that while ethnic heterogeneity and polarization are reliable predictors of local violence, adverse economic shocks are not. Surprisingly, we also find that the risk of local violence is higher rather than lower in communities where minority and majority ethnic groups share power. These counterintuitive results illustrate the usefulness of prediction for generating new stylized facts for future research to explain. Ours is one of just two attempts to forecast local violence using survey data, and we conclude by discussing how our approach can be replicated and extended as similar datasets proliferate

Engineering informal institutions: Long run impacts of alternative dispute resolution on violence and property rights in Liberia

Informal institutions govern property rights and disputes when formal systems are weak. Effective informal institutions should help people reach and maintain bargains, minimizing violence. Can outside organizations engineer persistent institutional change? Will this strengthen property rights and investment? We experimentally evaluate a United Nations and civil society mass education campaign to promote alternative dispute resolution practices and norms in rural Liberia, where violent land disputes are common. Prior work showed a drop in violence and unresolved disputes within one year. We return after three years to test for sustained impacts and mechanisms. Treated communities report large, persistent drops in violent disputes and a slight shift toward nonviolent norms. Treated residents also report larger farms, although overall effects on property rights and investment are mixed. Politically connected residents report more secure property rights, while those with fewer connections feel less secure. Sustained institutional engineering is feasible, but politics shapes distributional outcomes

Women's entrepreneurship and intimate partner violence: A cluster randomized trial of microenterprise assistance and partner participation in post-conflict Uganda (SSM-D-14-01580R1)

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Intimate partner violence is widespread and represents an obstacle to human freedom and a significant public health concern. Poverty alleviation programs and efforts to economically “empower” women have become popular policy options, but theory and empirical evidence are mixed on the relationship between women's empowerment and the experience of violence. We study the effects of a successful poverty alleviation program on women's empowerment and intimate partner relations and violence from 2009 to 2011. In the first experiment, a cluster-randomized superiority trial, 15 marginalized people (86% women) were identified in each of 120 villages (n = 1800) in Gulu and Kitgum districts in Uganda. Half of villages were randomly assigned via public lottery to immediate treatment: five days of business training, $150, and supervision and advising. We examine intent-to-treat estimates of program impact and heterogeneity in treatment effects by initial quality of partner relations. 16 months after the initial grants, the program doubled business ownership and incomes (p < 0.01); we show that the effect on monthly income, however, is moderated by initial quality of intimate partner relations. We also find small increases in marital control (p < 0.05), self-reported autonomy (p < 0.10), and quality of partner relations (p < 0.01), but essentially no change in intimate partner violence. In a second experiment, we study the impact of a low-cost attempt to include household partners (often husbands) in the process. Participants from the 60 waitlist villages (n = 904) were randomly assigned to participate in the program as individuals or with a household partner. We observe small, non-significant decreases in abuse and marital control and large increases in the quality of relationships (p < 0.05), but no effects on women's attitudes toward gender norms and a non-significant reduction in autonomy. Involving men and changing framing to promote more inclusive programming can improve relationships, but may not change gender attitudes or increase business success. Increasing women's earnings has no effect on intimate partner violence.A Vanguard Charitable Trust and the LOGiCA Trust Fund at the World Bank funded data collection and analysis. This article is the result of independent research and does not necessarily represent the views of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau or the United States

The returns to microenterprise support among the ultrapoor: A field experiment in postwar Uganda

This is the final version of the article. Available from American Economic Association via the DOI in this record.We show that extremely poor, war-affected women in northern Uganda have high returns to a package of $150 cash, five days of business skills training, and ongoing supervision. Sixteen months after grants, participants doubled their microenterprise ownership and incomes, mainly from petty trading. We also show these ultrapoor have too little social capital, but that group bonds, informal insurance, and cooperative activities could be induced and had positive returns. When the control group received cash and training 20 months later, we varied supervision, which represented half of the program costs. A year later, supervision increased business survival but not consumption. (JEL I38, J16, J23, J24, L26, O15, Z13

Measuring the measurement error: A method to qualitatively validate survey data

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Empirical social science relies heavily on self-reported data, but subjects may misreport behaviors, especially sensitive ones such as crime or drug abuse. If a treatment influences survey misreporting, it biases causal estimates. We develop a validation technique that uses intensive qualitative work to assess survey misreporting and pilot it in a field experiment where subjects were assigned to receive cash, therapy, both, or neither. According to survey responses, both treatments reduced crime and other sensitive behaviors. Local researchers spent several days with a random subsample of subjects after surveys, building trust and obtaining verbal confirmation of four sensitive behaviors and two expenditures. In this instance, validation showed survey underreporting of most sensitive behaviors was low and uncorrelated with treatment, while expenditures were under reported in the survey across all arms, but especially in the control group. We use these data to develop measurement error bounds on treatment effects estimated from surveys.This study was funded by the National Science Foundation (SES-1317506), the World Bank's Learning on Gender and Conflict in Africa (LOGiCA) trust fund, the World Bank's Italian Children and Youth (CHYAO) trust fund, the Department of International Development, UK (DFID, GA-C1-RA2-114) via the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), a Vanguard Charitable Trust, the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID, AID-OAA-A-12-00066) DCHA/CMM office, and the Robert Wood Johnson Health and Society Scholars Program at Harvard University (Cohort 5). The contents of this study are the sole responsibility of authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of their employers or any of these funding agencies or governments

Restoration of CD28 Expression in CD28− CD8+ Memory Effector T Cells Reconstitutes Antigen-induced IL-2 Production

The control of many persistent viral infections by Ag-specific cytolytic CD8+ T cells requires a concurrent virus-specific CD4+ Th cell response. This reflects in part a requirement of activated effector CD8+ T cells for paracrine IL-2 production as a growth and survival factor. In human CMV and HIV infection, the majority of differentiated virus-specific CD8+ T cells notably lose the ability to produce IL-2 but also lose expression of CD28, a costimulatory molecule. Analysis of the fraction of memory CD8+ T cells that continue to express CD28 revealed these cells retain the ability to produce IL-2. Therefore, we examined if IL-2 production by CD28− CD8+ T cells could be restored by introduction of a constitutively expressed CD28 gene. Expression of CD28 in CD28− CD8+ CMV- and HIV-specific CD8+ T cells reconstituted the ability to produce IL-2, which could sustain an autocrine proliferative response after Ag recognition. These results suggest that the loss of CD28 expression during differentiation of memory/effector CD8+ T cells represents a decisive step in establishing regulation of responding CD8+ T cells, increasing the dependence on CD4+ Th for proliferation after target recognition, and has implications for the treatment of viral disease with adoptively transferred CD8+ T cells