Circular 60

The University o f Alaska-Fairbanks reindeer program has existed under its current organizational framework since 1981. Program guidance across the three functions o f research, extension, and instruction continues to meet with support both internal and external to the university. The program ’s user group, the Alaska Reindeer Herders Association, is an ideal Land Grant/Sea Grant recipient for such guidance. Several major issues outlined by the Reindeer Herders Association’s first five-year plan have been addressed during the past few years. In most cases the university’s input has helped to resolve the association’s concerns. Currently a new five-year plan is being developed, and the university’s reindeer program is responding by redirecting its efforts toward emerging issues. This report identifies recent accomplishments in the reindeer program , continuing efforts, and projected areas of future effort

Counseling and the Search for Meaning

Reviewed Book: Welter, Paul R. Counseling and the Search for Meaning. Waco, Tex: Word Books, 1987. Resources for Christian Counseling; 9

Consumer confidence after September 11

The terrorist attacks on September 11 dealt a serious blow to the U.S. economy. The damage included the tragic loss of human life, massive property destruction, and disruptions to the travel and shipping industries. But immediately after the attacks, many observers also worried about the possible harm to business and consumer confidence. Although the effects on business confidence are hard to measure, regular surveys of households make it easier to assess the effects on consumer confidence. These surveys show that consumer confidence was surprisingly resilient.> Faced with this resilience, forecasters and policymakers struggled to interpret the movements in consumer confidence. Did consumers quickly return to more normal economic behavior even though they were shocked by the terrorist attacks? Or was the resilience somehow illusory? Were measures of consumer confidence actually lower than would be expected based on prevailing economic conditions? The answers to these questions might have implications about the economic outlook or the proper settings for monetary and fiscal policy.> Garner examines the impact of the terrorist attacks on consumer confidence at the end of 2001. He finds that the terrorist attacks did not cause a clear weakening of consumer confidence after September 11. As a result, the consumer confidence indexes maintained a fairly normal relationship to other economic indicators and did not contain much new information for forecasters and policymakers. The resilience of consumer confidence may have offered some assurance, however, that the worst fears about the economic outlook would not be realized.Consumers ; Consumer behavior ; Terrorism

Consumption taxes : macroeconomic effects and policy issues

Proposals for fundamental reform of the federal tax code are receiving increased attention in the business press and among economic analysts and policymakers. President Bush has identified tax reform as a top priority, calling for a tax system that is “pro-growth, easy to understand, and fair to all.” Moreover, the President has appointed a commission to consider different approaches to tax reform. One approach might be to improve the current income-based federal tax code, perhaps by broadening the tax base and lowering income-tax rates. However, another approach might be to replace current income taxes altogether with a consumption tax. Switching the federal tax system from an income tax to a consumption tax could have important macroeconomic effects. Most economists believe that switching to a consumption tax could increase saving and real output per person over the long run, although studies differ on the size of these effects. However, switching to a consumption tax might also require sizable short-run economic adjustments and create challenges for monetary policymakers. Garner analyzes the macroeconomic effects of replacing the current federal tax system with a consumption tax. First, he provides some background on the goals of tax reform and the basic difference between an income tax and a consumption tax. Next, he describes three widely discussed versions of a consumption tax: a national retail sales tax, a value-added tax, and a consumption-type flat tax. Finally, he examines the macroeconomic effects of adopting a consumption tax. All three proposals could raise U.S. output over the long run, but adopting a consumption tax could have sizable transition effects as well. These transition effects could vary depending on which consumption tax was adopted and how monetary policy responded to the reforms.Consumption (Economics) ; Taxation ; Tax reform

Social Security privatization: balancing efficiency and fairness

This article examines these fundamental issues of economic efficiency and fairness that should be weighed when considering Social Security privatization. The first section summarizes the challenges to the current system and outlines various options for reform. The second section explains how privatization could improve economic efficiency, and briefly considers the difficult issue of the transition costs in moving from the current system to full privatization. The third section discusses important issues of fairness within and across generations. Any decision to privatize Social Security will require balancing the likely gains of greater real output and fairer returns to younger generations with the possible adverse effects of a more unequal income distribution among retirees and greater investment risks. This balancing must occur through the political process because fairness is a matter of values rather than economic analysis.Social security

New evidence connecting exchange rates to business cycles

Gross domestic product ; Business cycles ; Foreign exchange rates

Learning by Suing: Structural Estimates of Court Errors in Patent Litigation

This paper presents structural estimates of the probability of validity, and the probability of Type I and Type II errors by courts in patent litigation. Patents are modeled as uncertain property rights, and implications of the model are tested using stock market reactions to patent litigation decisions. The estimation quantifies beliefs about patent validity and court errors in a Bayesian context. I estimate that the underlying beliefs about validity range from 0.6 to 0.7 for litigated patents. Market beliefs about courts show that Type I errors (finding a valid patent invalid) occur very frequently–an estimated probability of 0.45. However, Type II errors (finding an invalid patent valid) occur with near zero probability. Additional implications of the model address patent value. My results are the first structural estimates of court errors. Additionally, this study is the first to perform event studies on patent litigation.