A Comparative Analysis of Exceptional Flood Events in the Context of Heavy Rains in the Summer of 2010: Siret Basin (NE Romania) Case Study

The Siret River crosses northeastern (NE) Romania from the north to the south, and it discharges into the Danube, near the city of Galati. Between 17 June and 10 July 2010, significant amounts of precipitations in the mountainous basin of Siret were recorded. The floods comprised two periods with four bimodal cycles, and they were counted as among the strongest on the Romanian territory. The exceptional floods occurred in the rivers of Siret, Suceava, Moldova, Bistrita, Trotus, and so on. The most important compound flood wave was determined by the precipitations, which fell between 29 June and 1 July 2010, when significant amounts of rain were recorded, sometimes exceeding 80 mm/day. The high discharges on the Bistrita River—downstream from the Bicaz Reservoir—were controlled by complex hydro-technical works. The maximum discharge for summer floods in the year 2010 was recorded at the Dragesti hydrometric station: 2884 m3/s (historic discharge) compared with the preceding historic discharge (2850 m3/s) of the year 2008. The effects of floods were strongest in the counties of Suceava, Neamt, and Bacau. The floods on the main course of the Siret River were analyzed in correlation with the tributaries within the mountainous sector

Unstable Belief Formation and Slowed Decision-making: Evidence That the Jumping-to-Conclusions Bias in Schizophrenia Is Not Linked to Impulsive Decision-making

Background Jumping-to-conclusions (JTC) is a prominent reasoning bias in schizophrenia (SCZ). While it has been linked to not only psychopathological abnormalities (delusions and impulsive decision-making) but also unstable belief formation, its origin remains unclear. We here directly test to which extend JTC is associated with delusional ideation, impulsive decision-making, and unstable belief formation. Methods In total, 45 SCZ patients were compared with matched samples of 45 patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) and 45 healthy controls (HC) as delusions and JTC also occur in other mental disorders and the general population. Participants performed a probabilistic beads task. To test the association of JTC with measures of delusions (Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale [PANSS](positive), PANSS(positive-factor), and Peter Delusions Inventory [PDI]), Bayesian linear regressions were computed. For the link between JTC and impulsive decision-making and unstable beliefs, we conducted between-group comparisons of "draws to decision" (DTD), "decision times" (DT), and "disconfirmatory evidence scores" (DES). Results Bayesian regression obtained no robust relationship between PDI and DTD (all |R-adj(2)| = .022, all Bayes Factors [BF01] = .216; numerically higher DT in other trials). Further, SCZ had unstable beliefs about the correct source jar whenever unexpected changes in bead sequences (disconfirmatory evidence) occurred (compared with MDD: all P = .232; compared with HC: numerically higher DES). No significant correlation was observed between DT and DTD (all P >= .050). Conclusions Our findings point toward a relationship of JTC with unstable belief formation and do not support the assumption that JTC is associated with impulsive decision-making