Safety and Security Co-engineering and Argumentation Framework

Automotive systems become increasingly complex due to their functional range and data exchange with the outside world. Until now, functional safety of such safety-critical electrical/electronic systems has been covered successfully. However, the data exchange requires interconnection across trusted boundaries of the vehicle. This leads to security issues like hacking and malicious attacks against interfaces, which could bring up new types of safety issues. Before mass-production of automotive systems, arguments supported by evidences are required regarding safety and security. Product engineering must be compliant to specific standards and must support arguments that the system is free of unreasonable risks. This paper shows a safety and security co-engineering framework, which covers standard compliant process derivation and management, and supports product specific safety and security co-analysis. Furthermore, we investigate process- and product-related argumentation and apply the approach to an automotive use case regarding safety and security.This work is supported by the projects EMC2 and AMASS. Research leading to these results has received funding from the EU ARTEMIS Joint Undertaking under grant agreement no. 621429 (project EMC2), project AMASS (H2020-ECSEL no 692474; Spain’s MINECO ref. PCIN-2015-262) and from the COMET K2 - Competence Centres for Excellent Technologies Programme of the Austrian Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology (bmvit), the Austrian Federal Ministry of Science, Research and Economy (bmwfw), the Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG), the Province of Styria and the Styrian Business Promotion Agency (SFG)

Early deglacial Atlantic overturning decline and its role in atmospheric CO₂ rise inferred from carbon isotopes (δ¹³C)

The reason for the initial rise in atmospheric CO₂ during the last deglaciation remains unknown. Most recent hypotheses invoke Southern Hemisphere processes such as shifts in midlatitude westerly winds. Coeval changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are poorly quantified, and their relation to the CO₂ increase is not understood. Here we compare simulations from a global, coupled climate–biogeochemistry model that includes a detailed representation of stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) with a synthesis of high-resolution δ¹³C reconstructions from deep-sea sediments and ice core data. In response to a prolonged AMOC shutdown initialized from a preindustrial state, modeled δ¹³C of dissolved inorganic carbon (δ¹³C[subscript DIC]) decreases in most of the surface ocean and the subsurface Atlantic, with largest amplitudes (more than 1.5 ‰) in the intermediate-depth North Atlantic. It increases in the intermediate and abyssal South Atlantic, as well as in the subsurface Southern, Indian, and Pacific oceans. The modeled pattern is similar and highly correlated with the available foraminiferal δ¹³C reconstructions spanning from the late Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~19.5–18.5 ka BP) to the late Heinrich stadial event 1 (HS1, ~16.5–15.5 ka BP), but the model overestimates δ¹³C[subscript DIC] reductions in the North Atlantic. Possible reasons for the model–sediment-data differences are discussed. Changes in remineralized δ¹³C[subscript DIC] dominate the total δ¹³C[subscript DIC] variations in the model but preformed contributions are not negligible. Simulated changes in atmospheric CO₂ and its isotopic composition (δ¹³C[subscript CO₂]) agree well with ice core data. Modeled effects of AMOC-induced wind changes on the carbon and isotope cycles are small, suggesting that Southern Hemisphere westerly wind effects may have been less important for the global carbon cycle response during HS1 than previously thought. Our results indicate that during the early deglaciation the AMOC decreased for several thousand years.We propose that the observed early deglacial rise in atmospheric CO₂ and the decrease in δ¹³C[subscript CO₂] may have been dominated by an AMOC-induced decline of the ocean’s biologically sequestered carbon storage

Complementary constraints from carbon ¹³C and nitrogen ¹⁵N isotopes on the glacial ocean's soft-tissue biological pump

A three-dimensional, process-based model of the ocean’s carbon and nitrogen cycles, including 13C and 15N isotopes, is used to explore effects of idealized changes in the soft-tissue biological pump. Results are presented from one preindustrial control run (piCtrl) and six simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) with increasing values of the spatially constant maximum phytoplankton growth rate μmax, which accelerates biological nutrient utilization mimicking iron fertilization. The default LGM simulation, without increasing μmax and with a shallower and weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and increased sea ice cover, leads to 280 Pg more respired organic carbon (Corg) storage in the deep ocean with respect to piCtrl. Dissolved oxygen concentrations in the colder glacial thermocline increase, which reduces water column denitrification and, with delay, nitrogen fixation, thus increasing the ocean’s fixed nitrogen inventory and decreasing δ15NNO3 almost everywhere. This simulation already fits sediment reconstructions of carbon and nitrogen isotopes relatively well, but it overestimates deep ocean δ13CDIC and underestimates δ15NNO3 at high latitudes. Increasing μmax enhances Corg and lowers deep ocean δ13CDIC, improving the agreement with sediment data. In the model’s Antarctic and North Pacific Oceans modest increases in μmax result in higher δ15NNO3 due to enhanced local nutrient utilization, improving the agreement with reconstructions there. Models with moderately increased μmax fit both isotope data best, whereas large increases in nutrient utilization are inconsistent with nitrogen isotopes although they still fit the carbon isotopes reasonably well. The best fitting models reproduce major features of the glacial δ13CDIC, δ15N, and oxygen reconstructions while simulating increased Corg by 510–670 Pg compared with the preindustrial ocean. These results are consistent with the idea that the soft-tissue pump was more efficient during the LGM. Both circulation and biological nutrient utilization could contribute. However, these conclusions are preliminary given our idealized experiments, which do not consider changes in benthic denitrification and spatially inhomogenous changes in aeolian iron fluxes. The analysis illustrates interactions between the carbon and nitrogen cycles as well as the complementary constraints provided by their isotopes. Whereas carbon isotopes are sensitive to circulation changes and indicate well the three-dimensional Corg distribution, nitrogen isotopes are more sensitive to biological nutrient utilization

Isotopic constraints on the pre-industrial oceanic nitrogen budget

The size of the bioavailable (i.e., “fixed”) nitrogen inventory in the ocean influences global marine productivity and the biological carbon pump. Despite its importance, the pre-industrial rates for the major source and sink terms of the oceanic fixed nitrogen budget, N₂ fixation and denitrification, respectively, are not well known. These processes leave distinguishable imprints on the ratio of stable nitrogen isotopes, δ¹⁵N, which can therefore help to infer their patterns and rates. Here we use δ¹⁵N observations from the water column and a new database of seafloor measurements to constrain rates of N₂ fixation and denitrification predicted by a global three-dimensional Model of Ocean Biogeochemistry and Isotopes (MOBI). Sensitivity experiments were performed to quantify uncertainties associated with the isotope effect of denitrification in the water column and sediments. They show that the level of nitrate utilization in suboxic zones, that is the balance between nitrate consumption by denitrification and nitrate replenishment by circulation and mixing (dilution effect), significantly affects the isotope effect of water column denitrification and thus global mean δ¹⁵NO₃-. Experiments with lower levels of nitrate utilization within the suboxic zone (i.e., higher residual water column nitrate concentrations, ranging from 20 to 32 μM) require higher ratios of benthic to water column denitrification, BD:WCD=0.75–1.4, to satisfy the global mean NO₃- and δ¹⁵NO₃- constraints in the modern ocean. This suggests that nitrate utilization in suboxic zones plays an important role in global nitrogen isotope cycling. Increasing the net fractionation factor "BD for benthic denitrification ("BD = 0–4 ‰) requires even higher ratios, BD:WCD=1.4–3.5. The model experiments that best reproduce observed seafloor δ¹⁵N support the middle to high-end estimates for the net fractionation factor of benthic denitrification (εBD =2–4 ‰). Assuming a balanced fixed nitrogen budget, we estimate that preindustrial rates of N₂ fixation, water column denitrification, and benthic denitrification were between 195–350 (225), 65– 80 (76), and 130–270 (149) TgNyr−1, respectively, with our best model estimate (εBD = 2-4 ‰) in parentheses. Although uncertainties still exist, these results suggest that marine N₂ fixation is occurring at much greater rates than previously estimated and the residence time for oceanic fixed nitrogen is between ~1500 and 3000 yr

Less remineralized carbon in the intermediate-depth south Atlantic during Heinrich Stadial 1

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 34(7), (2019): 1218-1233, doi:10.1029/2018PA003537.The last deglaciation (~20–10 kyr BP) was characterized by a major shift in Earth's climate state, when the global mean surface temperature rose ~4 °C and the concentration of atmospheric CO2 increased ~80 ppmv. Model simulations suggest that the initial 30 ppmv rise in atmospheric CO2 may have been driven by reduced efficiency of the biological pump or enhanced upwelling of carbon‐rich waters from the abyssal ocean. Here we evaluate these hypotheses using benthic foraminiferal B/Ca (a proxy for deep water [CO32−]) from a core collected at 1,100‐m water depth in the Southwest Atlantic. Our results imply that [CO32−] increased by 22 ± 2 μmol/kg early in Heinrich Stadial 1, or a decrease in ΣCO2 of approximately 40 μmol/kg, assuming there were no significant changes in alkalinity. Our data imply that remineralized phosphate declined by approximately 0.3 μmol/kg during Heinrich Stadial 1, equivalent to 40% of the modern remineralized signal at this location. Because tracer inversion results indicate remineralized phosphate at the core site reflects the integrated effect of export production in the sub‐Antarctic, our results imply that biological productivity in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean was reduced early in the deglaciation, contributing to the initial rise in atmospheric CO2.We would like to thank Bärbel Hönisch at Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University for help with methods development and Sarah McCart for technical assistance with ICP‐MS analyses. We would also like to give special thanks to Anna lisa Mudahy, who was responsible for picking a substantial portion of the benthic foraminifera used in this study. We are grateful to the WHOI core lab for sample collection and archiving. This work was supported by NSF grant OCE‐1702231 to D. L.2020-01-2

Complementary constraints from carbon (13C) and nitrogen (15N) isotopes on the glacial ocean's soft-tissue biological pump

A three-dimensional, process-based model of the ocean's carbon and nitrogen cycles, including 13C and 15N isotopes, is used to explore effects of idealized changes in the soft-tissue biological pump. Results are presented from one preindustrial control run (piCtrl) and six simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) with increasing values of the spatially constant maximum phytoplankton growth rate μmax, which accelerates biological nutrient utilization mimicking iron fertilization. The default LGM simulation, without increasing μmax and with a shallower and weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and increased sea ice cover, leads to 280 Pg more respired organic carbon (Corg) storage in the deep ocean with respect to piCtrl. Dissolved oxygen concentrations in the colder glacial thermocline increase, which reduces water column denitrification and, with delay, nitrogen fixation, thus increasing the ocean's fixed nitrogen inventory and decreasing δ15NNO3 almost everywhere. This simulation already fits sediment reconstructions of carbon and nitrogen isotopes relatively well, but it overestimates deep ocean δ13CDIC and underestimates δ15NNO3 at high latitudes. Increasing μmax enhances Corg and lowers deep ocean δ13CDIC, improving the agreement with sediment data. In the model's Antarctic and North Pacific Oceans modest increases in μmax result in higher δ15NNO3 due to enhanced local nutrient utilization, improving the agreement with reconstructions there. Models with moderately increased μmax fit both isotope data best, whereas large increases in nutrient utilization are inconsistent with nitrogen isotopes although they still fit the carbon isotopes reasonably well. The best fitting models reproduce major features of the glacial δ13CDIC, δ15N, and oxygen reconstructions while simulating increased Corg by 510–670 Pg compared with the preindustrial ocean. These results are consistent with the idea that the soft-tissue pump was more efficient during the LGM. Both circulation and biological nutrient utilization could contribute. However, these conclusions are preliminary given our idealized experiments, which do not consider changes in benthic denitrification and spatially inhomogenous changes in aeolian iron fluxes. The analysis illustrates interactions between the carbon and nitrogen cycles as well as the complementary constraints provided by their isotopes. Whereas carbon isotopes are sensitive to circulation changes and indicate well the three-dimensional Corg distribution, nitrogen isotopes are more sensitive to biological nutrient utilization

Southwest Atlantic water mass evolution during the last deglaciation

The rise in atmospheric CO₂ during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 14.5–17.5 kyr B.P.) may have been driven by the release of carbon from the abyssal ocean. Model simulations suggest that wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean can liberate ¹³C-depleted carbon from the abyss, causing atmospheric CO₂ to increase and the δ¹³C of CO₂ to decrease. One prediction of the Southern Ocean hypothesis is that water mass tracers in the deep South Atlantic should register a circulation response early in the deglaciation. Here we test this idea using a depth transect of 12 cores from the Brazil Margin. We show that records below 2300 m remained ¹³C-depleted until 15 kyr B.P. or later, indicating that the abyssal South Atlantic was an unlikely source of light carbon to the atmosphere during HS1. Benthic δ¹⁸O results are consistent with abyssal South Atlantic isolation until 15 kyr B.P., in contrast to shallower sites. The depth dependent timing of the δ¹⁸O signal suggests that correcting δ¹⁸O for ice volume is problematic on glacial terminations. New data from 2700 to 3000 m show that the deep SW Atlantic was isotopically distinct from the abyss during HS1. As a result, we find that mid-depth δ¹³C minima were most likely driven by an abrupt drop in δ¹³C of northern component water. Low δ¹³C at the Brazil Margin also coincided with an ~80‰ decrease in Δ¹⁴C. Our results are consistent with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and point toward a northern hemisphere trigger for the initial rise in atmospheric CO₂ during HS1.This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. and copyrighted by American Geophysical Union. It can be found at: http://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/agu/journal/10.1002/%28ISSN%291944-9186/Keywords: carbon dioxide, deglaciation, South Atlantic, stable isotope

Sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to South Atlantic freshwater anomalies

The sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to changes in basin integrated net evaporation is highly dependent on the zonal salinity contrast at the southern border of the Atlantic. Biases in the freshwater budget strongly affect the stability of the AMOC in numerical models. The impact of these biases is investigated, by adding local anomaly patterns in the South Atlantic to the freshwater fluxes at the surface. These anomalies impact the freshwater and salt transport by the different components of the ocean circulation, in particular the basin-scale salt-advection feedback, completely changing the response of the AMOC to arbitrary perturbations. It is found that an appropriate dipole anomaly pattern at the southern border of the Atlantic Ocean can collapse the AMOC entirely even without a further hosing. The results suggest a new view on the stability of the AMOC, controlled by processes in the South Atlantic. <br/