The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

Multiple Cytokines Are Released When Blood from Patients with Tuberculosis Is Stimulated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Antigens

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection may cause overt disease or remain latent. Interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) detect Mtb infection, both latent infection and infection manifesting as overt disease, by measuring whole-blood interferon gamma (IFN-γ) responses to Mtb antigens such as early secreted antigenic target-6 (ESAT-6), culture filtrate protein 10 (CFP-10), and TB7.7. Due to a lack of adequate diagnostic standards for confirming latent Mtb infection, IGRA sensitivity for detecting Mtb infection has been estimated using patients with culture-confirmed tuberculosis (CCTB) for whom recovery of Mtb confirms the infection. In this study, cytokines in addition to IFN-γ were assessed for potential to provide robust measures of Mtb infection.Cytokine responses to ESAT-6, CFP-10, TB7.7, or combinations of these Mtb antigens, for patients with CCTB were compared with responses for subjects at low risk for Mtb infection (controls). Three different multiplexed immunoassays were used to measure concentrations of 9 to 20 different cytokines. Responses were calculated by subtracting background cytokine concentrations from cytokine concentrations in plasma from blood stimulated with Mtb antigens.Two assays demonstrated that ESAT-6, CFP-10, ESAT-6+CFP-10, and ESAT-6+CFP-10+TB7.7 stimulated the release of significantly greater amounts of IFN-γ, IL-2, IL-8, MCP-1 and MIP-1β for CCTB patients than for controls. Responses to combination antigens were, or tended to be, greater than responses to individual antigens. A third assay, using whole blood stimulation with ESAT-6+CFP-10+TB7.7, revealed significantly greater IFN-γ, IL-2, IL-6, IL-8, IP-10, MCP-1, MIP-1β, and TNF-α responses among patients compared with controls. One CCTB patient with a falsely negative IFN-γ response had elevated responses with other cytokines.Multiple cytokines are released when whole blood from patients with CCTB is stimulated with Mtb antigens. Measurement of multiple cytokine responses may improve diagnostic sensitivity for Mtb infection compared with assessment of IFN-γ alone

Relative adrenal insufficiency and hemodynamic status in cardiopulmonary bypass surgery patients. A prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The objectives of this study were to determine the risk factors for relative adrenal insufficiency in cardiopulmonary bypass patients and the impact on postoperative vasopressor requirements.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Prospective cohort study on cardiopulmonary bypass patients who received etomidate or not during anesthetic induction. Relative adrenal insufficiency was defined as a rise in serum cortisol ≤ 9 μg/dl after the administration of 250 μg of consyntropin. Plasma cortisol levels were measured preoperatively, immediately before, 30, 60, and 90 minutes after the administration of cosyntropin, and at 24 hours after surgery.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>120 elective cardiopulmonary bypass patients were included. Relative adrenal insufficiency (Δcortisol ≤9 μg/dl) incidence was 77.5%. 78 patients received etomidate and 69 (88%) of them developed relative adrenal insufficiency, (<it>P </it>< 0.001). Controlling for clinical characteristics with a propensity analysis, etomidate was the only independent risk factor associated with relative adrenal insufficiency (OR 6.55, CI 95%: 2.47-17.4; <it>P </it>< 0.001). Relative adrenal insufficiency patients showed more vasopressor requirements just after surgery (<it>P </it>= 0.04), and at 4 hours after surgery (<it>P </it>= 0.01). Pre and post-test plasma cortisol levels were inversely associated with maximum norepinephrine dose (ρ = -0.22, <it>P </it>= 0.02; ρ = -0.18, <it>P </it>= 0.05; ρ = -0.21, <it>P </it>= 0.02; and ρ = -0.22, <it>P </it>= 0.02, respectively).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Relative adrenal insufficiency in elective cardiopulmonary bypass patients may induce postoperative vasopressor dependency. Use of etomidate in these patients is a modifiable risk factor for the development of relative adrenal insufficiency that should be avoided.</p

Day-care, early common infections and childhood acute leukaemia: a multicentre French case–control study

We conducted a case–control study to investigate the role of early infections in the aetiology of childhood acute leukaemias. The study included 280 incident cases (240 acute lymphoblastic leukaemia and 40 acute non-lymphoblastic leukaemia) and 288 hospital controls, frequency matched by age, gender, hospital, catchment area of the hospital and ethnic origin. Data were obtained from standardised face-to-face interviews of the mothers. The interviews included questions on early common infections, day-care attendance, breast-feeding, birth order and infantile diseases. Odds ratios were estimated using an unconditional regression model including the stratification variables, parental socio-economic status and perinatal characteristics. Birth order was not associated with childhood leukaemia (acute lymphoblastic or acute non-lymphoblastic). A statistically-significant inverse association was observed between childhood leukaemia and day-care attendance (odds ratio=0.6, 95% Confidence Interval=(0.4–1.0)), repeated early common infections (⩾4 per year before age two, odds ratio=0.6 (0.4–1.0)), surgical procedures for ear–nose–throat infections before age two (odds ratio=0.5 (0.2–1.0)) and prolonged breast-feeding (⩾6 months, odds ratio=0.5 (0.2–1.0)). In the multivariate model including day-care attendance, early common infections and breast-feeding, results concerning breast-feeding remained unchanged. A statistically significant interaction between day-care attendance and repeated early common infections was observed. When the interaction was taken into account, the simple effects of day-care and early common infections disappeared (odds ratio=1.1 (0.5–2.3) and odds ratio=0.8 (0.5–1.3), respectively) while the joint effect of day-care attendance and early common infections was negatively associated with childhood leukaemia (odds ratio=0.3 (0.1–0.8)). All the above associations were observed both for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia and acute non-lymphoblastic leukaemia. Our results support Greaves' hypothesis, even though they are not specific of common leukaemia

Comparison of different treatments for isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis: an individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Isoniazid-resistant, rifampicin-susceptible (INH-R) tuberculosis is the most common form of drug resistance, and is associated with failure, relapse, and acquired rifampicin resistance if treated with first-line anti-tuberculosis drugs. The aim of the study was to compare success, mortality, and acquired rifampicin resistance in patients with INH-R pulmonary tuberculosis given different durations of rifampicin, ethambutol, and pyrazinamide (REZ); a fluoroquinolone plus 6 months or more of REZ; and streptomycin plus a core regimen of REZ. METHODS: Studies with regimens and outcomes known for individual patients with INH-R tuberculosis were eligible, irrespective of the number of patients if randomised trials, or with at least 20 participants if a cohort study. Studies were identified from two relevant systematic reviews, an updated search of one of the systematic reviews (for papers published between April 1, 2015, and Feb 10, 2016), and personal communications. Individual patient data were obtained from authors of eligible studies. The individual patient data meta-analysis was performed with propensity score matched logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and risk differences of treatment success (cure or treatment completion), death during treatment, and acquired rifampicin resistance. Outcomes were measured across different treatment regimens to assess the effects of: different durations of REZ (≤6 months vs >6 months); addition of a fluoroquinolone to REZ (fluoroquinolone plus 6 months or more of REZ vs 6 months or more of REZ); and addition of streptomycin to REZ (streptomycin plus 6 months of rifampicin and ethambutol and 1–3 months of pyrazinamide vs 6 months or more of REZ). The overall quality of the evidence was assessed using GRADE methodology. FINDINGS: Individual patient data were requested for 57 cohort studies and 17 randomised trials including 8089 patients with INH-R tuberculosis. We received 33 datasets with 6424 patients, of which 3923 patients in 23 studies received regimens related to the study objectives. Compared with a daily regimen of 6 months of (H)REZ (REZ with or without isoniazid), extending the duration to 8–9 months had similar outcomes; as such, 6 months or more of (H)REZ was used for subsequent comparisons. Addition of a fluoroquinolone to 6 months or more of (H)REZ was associated with significantly greater treatment success (aOR 2·8, 95% CI 1·1–7·3), but no significant effect on mortality (aOR 0·7, 0·4–1·1) or acquired rifampicin resistance (aOR 0·1, 0·0–1·2). Compared with 6 months or more of (H)REZ, the standardised retreatment regimen (2 months of streptomycin, 3 months of pyrazinamide, and 8 months of isoniazid, rifampicin, and ethambutol) was associated with significantly worse treatment success (aOR 0·4, 0·2–0·7). The quality of the evidence was very low for all outcomes and treatment regimens assessed, owing to the observational nature of most of the data, the diverse settings, and the imprecision of estimates. INTERPRETATION: In patients with INH-R tuberculosis, compared with treatment with at least 6 months of daily REZ, addition of a fluoroquinolone was associated with better treatment success, whereas addition of streptomycin was associated with less treatment success; however, the quality of the evidence was very low. These results support the conduct of randomised trials to identify the optimum regimen for this important and common form of drug-resistant tuberculosis. FUNDING: World Health Organization and Canadian Institutes of Health Research

The impact of breastfeeding patterns on regional differences in infant mortality in Germany, 1910

This paper examines the impact of breastfeeding practices on the large regional differences in infant mortality in Germany around 1910. Breastfeeding is strongly negatively associated with infant mortality and remains so after controlling for public health measures and for demographic, economic, and social factors that also affect infant mortality. But it contributes much less to regional differences in infant mortality than do access to medical care, percentage illegitimate and marital fertility. Breastfeeding is less important than these other factors because it affects fewer causes of death and has a smaller impact on cause-specific infant mortality rates. L'auteur étudie l'impact des pratiques d'allaitement sur les grandes différences régionales de mortalité infantile observées en Allemagne aux alentours de 1910. Il existe une association fortement négative entre l'allaitement et la mortalité infantile, même quand on contrôle les facteurs démographiques, économiques, sociaux et de politique sanitaire, qui, eux aussi, affectent la mortalité infantile. Mais les différences régionales de mortalité infantile s'expliquent nettement moins par l'allaitement que par l'accessibilité des soins médicaux, le taux d'illégitimité des naissances et la fécondité légitime. L'allaitement est un facteur de moindre importance que ceux-ci parce qu'il n'a d'impact que sur un petit nombre de causes de décès, et un faible impact sur les taux de mortalité infantile par cause.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/42730/1/10680_2005_Article_BF01796777.pd