Is the UK productivity slowdown unprecedented?

We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7 per cent below the pre-2008 trend path in 2018. This is nearly double the previous worst productivity shortfall ten years after the start of a downturn. On this criterion the slowdown is unprecedented in the past 250 years. We conjecture that this reflects a combination of adverse circumstances, namely, a financial crisis, a weakening impact of ICT and impending Brexit

Fiscal policy in a depressed economy : was there a ‘free lunch’ in 1930s’ Britain?

We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data and timeseries econometrics. We find that the government-expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.3 to 0.9 even during the period that interest rates were at the lower bound. The scope for a ‘Keynesian solution’to recession was much less than is generally supposed. In the later 1930s but not before Britain’s exit from the gold standard, there was a ‘fiscal free lunch’in that deficit-financed government spending would have improved public finances enough to pay for the interest on the extra debt

Rearmament to the rescue? New estimates of the impact of ‘Keynesian’ policies in 1930s’ Britain

We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data, time-series econometrics, and ‘defense news’. We find that the government expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.3 to 0.8, much lower than previous estimates. The scope for a Keynesian solution to recession was less than is generally supposed. We find that rearmament gave a smaller boost to real GDP than previously claimed. Rearmament may, however, have had a larger impact than a temporary public works program of similar magnitude if private investment anticipated the need to add capacity to cope with future defense spending

Deoxidation and Inclusion Control for Alloy Steel

DEOXIDATION of quality steels is directed toward the casting of sound ingots free from excessive segregation, having good rolling and forging characteristics, and containing it minimum of harmful impurity elements and inclusions. In addition, deoxidation is employed for grain size control to promote maximum toughness of the steel. These objectives are a chieved by selection of suitable charge material, slag control and initial deoxi-dation practice in the furnace, and final deoxidation practice in the ladle. Although much has been learned of the physical chemistry of the process,the art of steel-making is still in large part empirical, and successful practices are somewhat difficult to rationalize. For this reason, equilibrium relations in the iron-oxygen deoxidizer systems are important, but the kinetics of deoxidation and the sequence of operations may be more significant to the operator

Self-defeating austerity? Evidence from 1930s' Britain

Self-defeating austerity entails “perverse effects” of fiscal consolidation such that fiscal indicators deteriorate. Inter alia, this depends on the size of the fiscal multiplier as Keynes (1933. The Means to Prosperity. London: Macmillan) underlined. We find that the government-expenditure multiplier was less than 1 in 1930s' Britain. Austerity was not self-defeating in the long run and even its initial impact probably did not raise the public debt-to-GDP ratio. In the later 1930s, there was a “fiscal free lunch” in that deficit-financed government spending would have improved public finances enough to pay for the interest on the extra debt

Predicting medium-term TFP growth in the United States : econometrics vs ‘techno-optimism’

We analyse TFP growth in the US business sector using a basic unobserved component model where trend growth follows a random walk and the noise is a first order autoregression. This is fitted using a Kalman-filter methodology. We find that trend TFP growth has declined steadily from 1.5 to 1.0 per cent per year over the past 50 years. Nevertheless, recent trends are not a good guide to actual medium-term TFP growth. This exhibits substantial variations and is quite unpredictable. Techno-optimists should not give best to productivity pessimists simply because recent TFP growth has been weak

Six centuries of British economic growth : a time-series perspective

This paper provides a time-series analysis of recent annual estimates of real GDP and industrial output covering 1270–1913. We show that growth can be regarded as a segmented trend-stationary process. On this basis, we find that trend growth of real GDP per person was zero prior to the 1660s but then experienced two significant accelerations, pre- and post-industrial revolution. We also find that the hallmark of the industrial revolution is a substantial increase in the trend rate of growth of industrial output rather than being an episode of difference stationary growth

Human Mesenchymal Stromal Cells Decrease Mortality Following Intestinal Ischemia and Reperfusion Injury

Background Cellular therapy is a novel treatment option for intestinal ischemia. Bone marrow–derived mesenchymal stromal cells (BMSCs) have previously been shown to abate the damage caused by intestinal ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) injury. We therefore hypothesized that (1) human BMSCs (hBMSCs) would produce more beneficial growth factors and lower levels of proinflammatory mediators compared to differentiated cells, (2) direct application of hBMSCs to ischemic intestine would decrease mortality after injury, and (3) decreased mortality would be associated with an altered intestinal and hepatic inflammatory response. Methods Adult hBMSCs and keratinocytes were cultured on polystyrene flasks. For in vitro experiments, cells were exposed to tumor necrosis factor, lipopolysaccharides, or 2% oxygen for 24 h. Supernatants were then analyzed for growth factors and chemokines by multiplex assay. For in vivo experiments, 8- to 12-wk-old male C57Bl6J mice were anesthetized and underwent a midline laparotomy. Experimental groups were exposed to temporary superior mesenteric artery occlusion for 60 min. Immediately after ischemia, 2 × 106 hBMSCs or keratinocytes in phosphate-buffered saline were placed into the peritoneal cavity. Animals were then closed and allowed to recover for 6 h (molecular/histologic analysis) or 7 d (survival analysis). After 6-h reperfusion, animals were euthanized. Intestines and livers were harvested and analyzed for inflammatory chemokines, growth factors, and histologic changes. Results hBMSCs expressed higher levels of human interleukin (IL) 6, IL-8, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and epidermal growth factor and lower levels of IL-1, IL-3, IL-7, and granulocyte-monocyte colony-stimulating factor after stimulation. In vivo, I/R resulted in significant mortality (70% mortality), whereas application of hBMSCs after ischemia decreased mortality to 10% in a dose-dependent fashion (P = 0.004). Keratinocyte therapy offered no improvements in mortality above I/R. Histologic profiles were equivalent between ischemic groups, regardless of the application of hBMSCs or keratinocytes. Cellular therapy yielded significantly decreased murine intestinal levels of soluble activin receptor-like kinase 1, betacellulin, and endothelin, whereas increasing levels of eotaxin, monokine induced by gamma interferon (MIG), monocyte chemoattractant protein 1, IL-6, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF), and interferon gamma-induced protein 10 (IP-10) from ischemia were appreciated. hBMSC therapy yielded significantly higher expression of murine intestinal VEGF and lower levels of intestinal MIG compared to keratinocyte therapy. Application of hBMSCs after ischemia yielded significantly lower murine levels of hepatic MIG, IP-10, and G-CSF compared to keratinocyte therapy. Conclusions Human BMSCs produce multiple beneficial growth factors. Direct application of hBMSCs to the peritoneal cavity after intestinal I/R decreased mortality by 60%. Improved outcomes with hBMSC therapy were not associated with improved histologic profiles in this model. hBMSC therapy was associated with higher VEGF in intestines and lower levels of proinflammtory MIG, IP-10, and G-CSF in liver tissue after ischemia, suggesting that reperfusion with hBMSC therapy may alter survival by modulating the systemic inflammatory response to ischemia