HIV with contact-tracing: a case study in Approximate Bayesian Computation

Missing data is a recurrent issue in epidemiology where the infection process may be partially observed. Approximate Bayesian Computation, an alternative to data imputation methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo integration, is proposed for making inference in epidemiological models. It is a likelihood-free method that relies exclusively on numerical simulations. ABC consists in computing a distance between simulated and observed summary statistics and weighting the simulations according to this distance. We propose an original extension of ABC to path-valued summary statistics, corresponding to the cumulated number of detections as a function of time. For a standard compartmental model with Suceptible, Infectious and Recovered individuals (SIR), we show that the posterior distributions obtained with ABC and MCMC are similar. In a refined SIR model well-suited to the HIV contact-tracing data in Cuba, we perform a comparison between ABC with full and binned detection times. For the Cuban data, we evaluate the efficiency of the detection system and predict the evolution of the HIV-AIDS disease. In particular, the percentage of undetected infectious individuals is found to be of the order of 40%

Dark field Z-scan microscopic configuration for nonlinear optical measurements: Numerical study

This study deals with numerical simulations to optimize the parameters of the Dark Filed Z-scan (DFZ-scan) in a microscopic configuration for third-order nonlinear (NL) refraction measurements into thin films. The method allows dynamic, transparent, nonlinear phase shifts to be clearly visible. The simulations of such images are obtained for very low-induced refractive indices. Darkfield illumination requires blocking out of the central light which ordinarily passes through and around (surrounding) the NL specimen. A table to approximate circular aperture stop size versus magnification will be given depending on the focusing lens into the tested material

The Spread of Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 in Great Britain and Its Control by Vaccination

Bluetongue (BT) is a viral disease of ruminants transmitted by Culicoides biting midges and has the ability to spread rapidly over large distances. In the summer of 2006, BTV serotype 8 (BTV-8) emerged for the first time in northern Europe, resulting in over 2000 infected farms by the end of the year. The virus subsequently overwintered and has since spread across much of Europe, causing tens of thousands of livestock deaths. In August 2007, BTV-8 reached Great Britain (GB), threatening the large and valuable livestock industry. A voluntary vaccination scheme was launched in GB in May 2008 and, in contrast with elsewhere in Europe, there were no reported cases in GB during 2008.Here, we use carefully parameterised mathematical models to investigate the spread of BTV in GB and its control by vaccination. In the absence of vaccination, the model predicted severe outbreaks of BTV, particularly for warmer temperatures. Vaccination was predicted to reduce the severity of epidemics, with the greatest reduction achieved for high levels (95%) of vaccine uptake. However, even at this level of uptake the model predicted some spread of BTV. The sensitivity of the predictions to vaccination parameters (time to full protection in cattle, vaccine efficacy), the shape of the transmission kernel and temperature dependence in the transmission of BTV between farms was assessed.A combination of lower temperatures and high levels of vaccine uptake (>80%) in the previously-affected areas are likely to be the major contributing factors in the control achieved in England in 2008. However, low levels of vaccination against BTV-8 or the introduction of other serotypes could result in further, potentially severe outbreaks in future

Recreational marathon running does not cause exercise-induced left ventricular hypertrabeculation.

BACKGROUND: Marathon running in novices represents a natural experiment of short-term cardiovascular remodeling in response to running training. We examine whether this stimulus can produce exercise-induced left ventricular (LV) trabeculation. METHODS: Sixty-eight novice marathon runners aged 29.5 ± 3.2 years had indices of LV trabeculation measured by echocardiography and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging 6 months before and 2 weeks after the 2016 London Marathon race, in a prospective longitudinal study. RESULTS: After 17 weeks unsupervised marathon training, indices of LV trabeculation were essentially unchanged. Despite satisfactory inter-observer agreement in most methods of trabeculation measurement, criteria defining abnormally hypertrabeculated cases were discordant with each other. LV hypertrabeculation was a frequent finding in young, healthy individuals with no subject demonstrating clear evidence of a cardiomyopathy. CONCLUSION: Training for a first marathon does not induce LV trabeculation. It remains unclear whether prolonged, high-dose exercise can create de novo trabeculation or expose concealed trabeculation. Applying cut off values from published LV noncompaction cardiomyopathy criteria to young, healthy individuals risks over-diagnosis

Crafting organization

The recent shift in attention away from organization studies as science has allowed for consideration of new ways of thinking about both organization and organizing and has led to several recent attempts to \u27bring down\u27 organizational theorizing. In this paper, we extend calls for organization to be represented as a creative process by considering organization as craft. Organizational craft, we argue, is attractive, accessible, malleable, reproducible, and marketable. It is also a tangible way of considering organization studies with irreverence. We draw on the hierarchy of distinctions among fine art, decorative art, and craft to suggest that understanding the organization of craft assists in complicating our understanding of marginality. We illustrate our argument by drawing on the case of a contemporary Australian craftworks and marketplace known initially as the Meat Market Craft Centre (\u27MMCC\u27) and then, until its recent closure, as Metro! &Dagger; Stella Minahan was a board member and then the Chief Executive Officer of the Metro! Craft Centre.<br /

In search of stool donors: a multicentre study of prior knowledge, perceptions, motivators and deterrents among potential donors for fecal microbiota transplantation

Fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) is a highly effective therapy for recurrent Clostridioides difficile infection. Stool donors are essential, but difficult to recruit and retain. We aimed to identify factors influencing willingness to donate stool. This multi-center study with a 32-item questionnaire targeted young adults and health care workers via social media and university email lists in Edmonton and Kingston, Canada; London and Nottingham, England; and Indianapolis and Boston, USA. Items included baseline demographics and FMT knowledge and perception. Investigated motivators and deterrents included economic compensation, screening process, time commitment, and stool donation logistics. Logistic regression and linear regression models estimated associations of study variables with self-assessed willingness to donate stool. 802 respondents completed our questionnaire: 387 (48.3%) age 21-30 years, 573 (71.4%) female, 323 (40%) health care workers. Country of residence, age and occupation were not associated with willingness to donate stool. Factors increasing willingness to donate were: already a blood donor (OR 1.64), male, altruism, economic benefit, knowledge of how FMT can help patients (OR 1.32), and positive attitudes towards FMT (OR 1.39). Factors decreasing willingness to donate were: stool collection unpleasant (OR 0.92), screening process invasive (OR 0.92), higher stool donation frequency, negative social perception of stool, and logistics of collection/transporting feces. We conclude that 1) blood donors and males are more willing to consider stool donation; 2) altruism, economic compensation, and positive feedback are motivators; and 3) screening process, high donation frequency, logistics of collection/transporting feces, lack of public awareness, and negative social perception are deterrents. Considering these variables could maximize donor recruitment and retention