Primary Atmospheric Drivers of Pluvial Years in the United States Great Plains

Precipitation variability has increased in recent decades across the Great Plains (GP) of the United States. Drought and its associated drivers have been studied in the GP region; however, periods of excessive precipitation (pluvials) at seasonal to interannual scales have received less attention. This study narrows this knowledge gap with the overall goal of understanding GP precipitation variability during pluvial periods. Through composites of relevant atmospheric variables from the ECMWF twentieth-century reanalysis (ERA-20C), key differences between southern Great Plains (SGP) and northern Great Plains (NGP) pluvial periods are highlighted. The SGP pluvial pattern shows an area of negative height anomalies over the southwestern United States with wind anomalies consistent with frequent synoptic wave passages along a southward-shifted North Pacific jet. TheNGPpattern during pluvial periods, by contrast, depicts anomalously low heights in the northwestern United States and an anomalously extended Pacific jet. Analysis of daily heavy precipitation events reveals the key drivers for these pluvial events, namely, an east–west height gradient and associated stronger poleward moisture fluxes. Therefore, the results show that pluvial years over the GP are likely driven by synoptic-scale processes rather than by anomalous seasonal precipitation driven by longer time-scale features. Overall, the results present a possible pathway to predicting the occurrence of pluvial years over the GP and understanding the causes of GP precipitation variability, potentially mitigating the threats of water scarcity and excesses for the public and agricultural sectors

The impact of the urban heat island during an intense heatwave

, an intense heat wave occurred in Oklahoma City. To quantify the impact of the urban heat island (UHI) in Oklahoma City on observed and apparent temperature conditions during the heat wave event, this study used observations from 46 locations in and around Oklahoma City. The methodology utilized composite values of atmospheric conditions for three primary categories defined by population and general land use: rural, suburban, and urban. The results of the analyses demonstrated that a consistent UHI existed during the study period whereby the composite temperature values within the urban core were approximately 0.5 • C warmer during the day than the rural areas and over 2 • C warmer at night. Further, when the warmer temperatures were combined with ambient humidity conditions, the composite values consistently revealed even warmer heat-related variables within the urban environment as compared with the rural zone

Primary Atmospheric Drivers of Dry and Wet Periods over the U.S. Great Plains within CMIP5 Models

Precipitation variability is critical to the economic and ecosystem health of the United States Great Plains (GP). Whether from wet or dry extremes, changes in annual precipitation can lead to impacts on the health of the ecosystem and overall crop yield in a given year. To this end, wet and dry extremes have been investigated using the ERA-20C and CMIP5 dataset on an annual timescale to determine the ability of climate-scale simulations to resolve atmospheric drivers of precipitation variability. Results from the ERA-20C analysis show that specific atmospheric circulation anomalies can be detected which relate eddy geopotential height (EGH) anomalies to dry or wet annual precipitation anomalies in the GP domain. Using a similar method of defining dry and wet years, CMIP5 model simulations were examined to determine their ability to resolve these drivers and the associated precipitation variability in the GP. After filtering the different models based on their depiction of GP precipitation variability, the model simulations were categorized as Tier 1 and Tier 2 models, where Tier 1 yielded overall strong similarities and Tier 2 with overall weaker similarities. Both the Tier 1 and Tier 2 models were subsequently analyzed using the same atmospheric fields investigated within the ERA-20C dataset. The results demonstrated that both the Tier 1 and Tier 2 model ensembles were able to resolve the atmospheric anomalies associated with dry and wet years over the GP. However, specific differences exist between the Tier 1 and Tier 2 ensembles, namely that the Tier 2 model composites show larger magnitude anomalies. This result likely means that the Tier 2 model composites produce too many years in which the atmospheric anomalies are the primary cause of the precipitation anomalies when compared with known observational cases of GP dry or wet years. Overall, however, the CMIP5 models were able to satisfactorily reproduce GP precipitation variability, while the root of the variability appears to be forced by processes that are not widely evident in reanalysis datasets

Role of Sea Surface Temperatures in Forcing Circulation Anomalies Driving U.S. Great Plains Pluvial Years

In the U.S. Great Plains (GP), diagnosing precipitation variability is key in developing an understanding of the present and future availability of water in the region. Building on previous work investigating U.S. GP pluvial years, this study usesERAtwentieth century (ERA-20C) reanalysis data to investigate key circulation anomalies driving GP precipitation anomalies during a subset of GP pluvial years (called in this paper Pattern pluvial years). With previous research showing links between tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and GP climate variability, this study diagnoses the key circulation anomalies through an analysis of SSTs and their influence on the atmosphere. Results show that during Pattern southern Great Plains (SGP) pluvial years, central tropical Pacific SST anomalies are coincident with key atmospheric anomalies across the Pacific basin and North America. During northern Great Plains (NGP) Pattern pluvial years, no specific pattern of oceanic anomalies emerges that forces the circulation anomaly feature inherent in specific NGP pluvial years. Utilizing the results for SGP pluvial years, a conceptual model is developed detailing the identified pathway for the occurrence of circulation patterns that are favorable for pluvial years over the SGP. Overall, results from this study show the importance of the identified SGP atmospheric anomaly signal and the potential for predictability of such events

Examining Rapid Onset Drought Development Using the Thermal Infrared–Based Evaporative Stress Index

Reliable indicators of rapid drought onset can help to improve the effectiveness of drought early warning systems. In this study, the evaporative stress index (ESI), which uses remotely sensed thermal infrared imagery to estimate evapotranspiration (ET), is compared to drought classifications in the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and standard precipitation-based drought indicators for several cases of rapid drought development that have occurred across the United States in recent years. Analysis of meteorological time series from the North American Regional Reanalysis indicates that these events are typically characterized by warm air temperature and low cloud cover anomalies, often with high winds and dewpoint depressions that serve to hasten evaporative depletion of soil moisture reserves. Standardized change anomalies depicting the rate at which various multiweek ESI composites changed over different time intervals are computed to more easily identify areas experiencing rapid changes in ET. Overall, the results demonstrate that ESI change anomalies can provide early warning of incipient drought impacts on agricultural systems, as indicated in crop condition reports collected by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. In each case examined, large negative change anomalies indicative of rapidly drying conditions were either coincident with the introduction of drought in the USDM or lead the USDM drought depiction by several weeks, depending on which ESI composite and time-differencing interval was used. Incorporation of the ESI as a data layer used in the construction of the USDM may improve timely depictions of moisture conditions and vegetation stress associated with flash drought events

Hydronephrosis Resulting from Bilateral Ureteral Stenosis: A Late Complication of Polyoma BK Virus Cystitis?

We report here a case of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in remission presenting a late-onset bilateral hydronephrosis probably due to polyoma BK virus-induced proliferation of bladder endothelium on both ostii. The diagnosis was made virologically by BK virus Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) detection in the absence of any other bladder disease. Awareness of this late complication is necessary not only in patients after renal transplantation but also in patients after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation from matched unrelated donor

The electromagnetic calorimeter of the AMS-02 experiment

The electromagnetic calorimeter (ECAL) of the AMS-02 experiment is a 3-dimensional sampling calorimeter, made of lead and scintillating fibers. The detector allows for a high granularity, with 18 samplings in the longitudinal direction, and 72 sampling in the lateral direction. The ECAL primary goal is to measure the energy of cosmic rays up to few TeV, however, thanks to the fine grained structure, it can also provide the separation of positrons from protons, in the GeV to TeV region. A direct measurement of high energy photons with accurate energy and direction determination can also be provided.Comment: Proceedings of SF2A conference 201

Global projections of flash drought show increased risk in a warming climate

Flash drought, characterized by unusually rapid drying, can have substantial impact on many socioeconomic sectors, particularly agriculture. However, potential changes to flash drought risk in a warming climate remain unknown. In this study, projected changes in flash drought frequency and cropland risk from flash drought are quantified using global climate model simulations. We find that flash drought occurrence is expected to increase globally among all scenarios, with the sharpest increases seen in scenarios with higher radiative forcing and greater fossil fuel usage. Flash drought risk over cropland is expected to increase globally, with the largest increases projected across North America (change in annual risk from 32% in 2015 to 49% in 2100) and Europe (32% to 53%) in the most extreme emissions scenario. Following low-end and medium scenarios compared to high-end scenarios indicates a notable reduction in annual flash drought risk over cropland

Factors affecting haemoglobin dynamics in African children with acute uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria treated with single low dose primaquine or placebo

Background: Single low-dose primaquine (SLDPQ) effectively blocks the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but anxiety remains regarding its haemolytic potential in patients with glucose-6-phopshate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency. We, therefore, examined the independent effects of several factors on haemoglobin (Hb) dynamics in falciparum-infected children with a particular interest in SLDPQ and G6PD status. Methods: This randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, safety trial was conducted in Congolese and Ugandan children aged 6 months–11 years with acute uncomplicated P. falciparum and day (D) 0 Hbs ≥ 6 g/dL who were treated with age-dosed SLDPQ/placebo and weight-dosed artemether lumefantrine (AL) or dihydroartemisinin piperaquine (DHAPP). Genotyping defined G6PD (G6PD c.202T allele), haemoglobin S (HbS), and α-thalassaemia status. Multivariable linear and logistic regression assessed factor independence for continuous Hb parameters and Hb recovery (D42 Hb > D0 Hb), respectively. Results: One thousand one hundred thirty-seven children, whose median age was 5 years, were randomised to receive: AL + SLDPQ (n = 286), AL + placebo (286), DHAPP + SLDPQ (283), and DHAPP + placebo (282). By G6PD status, 284 were G6PD deficient (239 hemizygous males, 45 homozygous females), 119 were heterozygous females, 418 and 299 were normal males and females, respectively, and 17 were of unknown status. The mean D0 Hb was 10.6 (SD 1.6) g/dL and was lower in younger children with longer illnesses, lower mid-upper arm circumferences, splenomegaly, and α-thalassaemia trait, who were either G6PDd or heterozygous females. The initial fractional fall in Hb was greater in younger children with higher D0 Hbs and D0 parasitaemias and longer illnesses but less in sickle cell trait. Older G6PDd children with lower starting Hbs and greater factional falls were more likely to achieve Hb recovery, whilst lower D42 Hb concentrations were associated with younger G6PD normal children with lower fractional falls, sickle cell disease, α-thalassaemia silent carrier and trait, and late treatment failures. Ten blood transfusions were given in the first week (5 SLDPQ, 5 placebo). Conclusions: In these falciparum-infected African children, posttreatment Hb changes were unaffected by SLDPQ, and G6PDd patients had favourable posttreatment Hb changes and a higher probability of Hb recovery. These reassuring findings support SLDPQ deployment without G6PD screening in Africa