The Threat of Multiâ Year Drought in Western Amazonia

Recent â onceâ inâ aâ centuryâ Amazonian droughts highlight the impacts of drought and climate change on this region’s vegetation, carbon storage, water cycling, biodiversity, land use, and economy. The latest climate model simulations suggest this region will experience worsening future drought. However, the instrumental record is too short to quantify the range of background drought variability, or to evaluate extended drought risk in climate models. To overcome these limitations, we generated a new, highly resolved lake record of hydroclimatic variability within the western Amazon Basin. We find that Amazonia has regularly experienced multiâ year droughts over the last millennium. Our results indicate that current climate model simulations likely underestimate the background risk of multiâ year Amazonian drought. These findings illustrate that the future sustainability of the Amazonian forest and its many services may require management strategies that consider the likelihood of multiâ year droughts superimposed on a continued warming trend.Plain Language SummaryThe Amazon basin recently experienced multiple â onceâ inâ aâ centuryâ droughts that impacted the region’s water cycle, economy, vegetation, and carbon storage. However, the instrumental record in this region tends to be too short to determine if these droughts are abnormal in a longâ term context. Paleoclimate data can extend drought records that help water and land managers plan for these events in the face of climate change. To provide additional information about preâ instrumental drought, here we present results from a new paleoclimate lake record based on sediments we recovered from Lake Limón in the Peruvian Amazon. We find that concentrations of elements in the Lake Limón sediment cores are likely recording past changes in rainfall variability. We use this elemental variability to generate a new, millennialâ length record of drought for the western Amazon. We show that this region has experienced multiâ year droughts at least twice a century over the last â ¼1,400 years. The frequency and severity of these paleoclimateâ inferred droughts may exceed most climate model and instrumentalâ era drought risk estimates. Our findings illustrate that the future sustainability of the Amazonian forest and its many ecosystem services may require management strategies that consider the likelihood of multiâ year droughts in addition to continued warming.Key PointsWe present results from a highâ resolution paleoclimate record of hydroclimatic variability in western AmazoniaOur paleoclimate record suggests western Amazonia has regularly experienced multiâ year drought over the last millenniumEarth system model simulations may underestimate the background risk of multiâ year western Amazonian droughtPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146272/1/wrcr23386_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146272/2/wrcr23386.pd

Central American climate and microrefugia: A view from the last interglacial

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