Participatory Modelling of Socio-Ecological Systems: Lessons from a human-centered case study on regenerative agriculture

University of Technology Sydney. Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology.Addressing the root of ‘wicked’ problems of socio-ecological systems (SES) requires a more nuanced understanding of how human behavior can help or hinder the collaboration necessary to achieve transformation of the system. Participatory Modelling (PM) — the co-production of knowledge with stakeholders via facilitated modelling workshops — plays a critical role in this endeavour, for its ability to elicit and shape mental models and reveal tacit knowledge which could otherwise be concealed in ’black-box’ scientific modelling practices. The difficulties of working with stakeholders and ensuring systemic change are well noted in the PM literature. Fortunately, disciplines like neuroscience, psychology, education, and others have uncovered insights about the way the human mind works. In this thesis, I seek to elucidate where and how the behavioral sciences—how people think, learn, and behave— might improve the design, facilitation, and evaluation of PM to drive better management of SES. In a PM case study, I examine the adoption of regenerative agriculture in Australia as an example of one such system. Ultimately, this thesis provides an approach and practical insights that can be adopted by PM practitioners, but also more broadly for researchers and policymakers seeking to take a behaviorally-attuned stance to moving towards the resilience, sustainability, and prosperity our society so desperately needs

NuSTAR Tests of Sterile-Neutrino Dark Matter: New Galactic Bulge Observations and Combined Impact

We analyze two dedicated NuSTAR observations with exposure ${\sim}190$ ks located ${\sim}10^\circ$ from the Galactic plane, one above and the other below, to search for x-ray lines from the radiative decay of sterile-neutrino dark matter. These fields were chosen to minimize astrophysical x-ray backgrounds while remaining near the densest region of the dark matter halo. We find no evidence of anomalous x-ray lines in the energy range 5--20 keV, corresponding to sterile neutrino masses 10--40 keV. Interpreted in the context of sterile neutrinos produced via neutrino mixing, these observations provide the leading constraints in the mass range 10--12 keV, improving upon previous constraints in this range by a factor ${\sim}2$. We also compare our results to Monte Carlo simulations, showing that the fluctuations in our derived limit are not dominated by systematic effects. An updated model of the instrumental background, which is currently under development, will improve NuSTAR's sensitivity to anomalous x-ray lines, particularly for energies 3--5 keV.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures. Text updated to match published version in PRD. Conclusions unchange

Radiomics of Lung Nodules: A Multi-Institutional Study of Robustness and Agreement of Quantitative Imaging Features.

Radiomics is to provide quantitative descriptors of normal and abnormal tissues during classification and prediction tasks in radiology and oncology. Quantitative Imaging Network members are developing radiomic "feature" sets to characterize tumors, in general, the size, shape, texture, intensity, margin, and other aspects of the imaging features of nodules and lesions. Efforts are ongoing for developing an ontology to describe radiomic features for lung nodules, with the main classes consisting of size, local and global shape descriptors, margin, intensity, and texture-based features, which are based on wavelets, Laplacian of Gaussians, Law's features, gray-level co-occurrence matrices, and run-length features. The purpose of this study is to investigate the sensitivity of quantitative descriptors of pulmonary nodules to segmentations and to illustrate comparisons across different feature types and features computed by different implementations of feature extraction algorithms. We calculated the concordance correlation coefficients of the features as a measure of their stability with the underlying segmentation; 68% of the 830 features in this study had a concordance CC of ≥0.75. Pairwise correlation coefficients between pairs of features were used to uncover associations between features, particularly as measured by different participants. A graphical model approach was used to enumerate the number of uncorrelated feature groups at given thresholds of correlation. At a threshold of 0.75 and 0.95, there were 75 and 246 subgroups, respectively, providing a measure for the features' redundancy

Illumination in symbiotic binary stars: Non-LTE photoionization models. II. Wind case

We describe a non-LTE photoionization code to calculate the wind structure and emergent spectrum of a red giant wind illuminated by the hot component of a symbiotic binary system. We consider spherically symmetric winds with several different velocity and temperature laws and derive predicted line fluxes as a function of the red giant mass loss rate, \mdot. Our models generally match observations of the symbiotic stars EG And and AG Peg for \mdot about 10^{-8} \msunyr to 10^{-7} \msunyr. The optically thick cross- section of the red giant wind as viewed from the hot component is a crucial parameter in these models. Winds with cross-sections of 2--3 red giant radii reproduce the observed fluxes, because the wind density is then high, about 10^9 cm^{-3}. Our models favor winds with acceleration regions that either lie far from the red giant photosphere or extend for 2--3 red giant radii.Comment: 51 pages, LaTeX including three tables, requires 15 Encapsulated Postscript figures, to appear in Ap

Numerical atomic orbitals for linear scaling

The performance of basis sets made of numerical atomic orbitals is explored in density-functional calculations of solids and molecules. With the aim of optimizing basis quality while maintaining strict localization of the orbitals, as needed for linear-scaling calculations, several schemes have been tried. The best performance is obtained for the basis sets generated according to a new scheme presented here, a flexibilization of previous proposals. The basis sets are tested versus converged plane-wave calculations on a significant variety of systems, including covalent, ionic and metallic. Satisfactory convergence (deviations significantly smaller than the accuracy of the underlying theory) is obtained for reasonably small basis sizes, with a clear improvement over previous schemes. The transferability of the obtained basis sets is tested in several cases and it is found to be satisfactory as well.Comment: 9 pages with 2 encapsulated postscript figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Multiwavelength Observations of the Blazar Mrk 421 in December 2002 and January 2003

We report on a multiwavelength campaign on the TeV gamma-ray blazar Markarian (Mrk) 421 performed during December 2002 and January 2003. These target of opportunity observations were initiated by the detection of X-ray and TeV gamma-ray flares with the All Sky Monitor (ASM) on board the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) and the 10 m Whipple gamma-ray telescope.The campaign included observational coverage in the radio (University of Michigan Radio Astronomy Observatory), optical (Boltwood, La Palma KVA 0.6m, WIYN 0.9m), X-ray (RXTE pointed telescopes), and TeV gamma-ray (Whipple and HEGRA) bands. At TeV energies, the observations revealed several flares at intermediate flux levels, peaking between 1 and 1.5 times the flux from the Crab Nebula. While the time averaged spectrum can be fitted with a single power law of photon index Gamma =2.8, we find some evidence for spectral variability. Confirming earlier results, the campaign reveals a rather loose correlation between the X-ray and TeV gamma-ray fluxes. In one case, a very strong X-ray flare is not accompanied by a comparable TeV gamma-ray flare. Although the source flux was variable in the optical and radio bands, the sparse sampling of the optical and radio light curves does not allow us to study the correlation properties in detail. We present a simple analysis of the data with a synchrotron-self Compton model, emphasizing that models with very high Doppler factors and low magnetic fields can describe the data.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

A Search for TeV Gamma-Ray Emission from High-Peaked Flat Spectrum Radio Quasars Using the Whipple Air-Cherenkov Telescope

Blazars have traditionally been separated into two broad categories based upon their optical emission characteristics; BL Lacs, with faint or no emission lines, and flat spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) with prominent, broad emission lines. The spectral energy distribution of FSRQs has generally been thought of as being more akin to the low-peaked BL Lacs, which exhibit a peak in the infrared region of the spectrum, as opposed to high-peaked BL Lacs (HBLs), which exhibit a peak in UV/X-ray region of the spectrum. All blazars currently confirmed as sources of TeV emission are HBLs. Recent surveys have found several FSRQs exhibiting spectral properties similar to HBLs, particularly the synchrotron peak frequency. These objects are potential sources of TeV emission according to several models of blazar jet emission and blazar evolution. Measurements of TeV flux or upper limits could impact existing theories explaining the links between different blazar types and could have a significant impact on our understanding of the nature of objects that are capable of TeV emission. In particular, the presence (or absence) of TeV emission from FSRQs could confirm (or cast doubt upon) recent evolutionary models that expect intermediate objects in a transitionary state between FSRQ and BL Lac. The Whipple 10 meter imaging air-Cherenkov gamma-ray telescope is well suited for TeV gamma-ray observations. Using the Whipple telescope, we have taken data on a small selection of nearby(z<0.1 in most cases), high-peaked FSRQs. Although one of the objects, B2 0321+33, showed marginal evidence of flaring, no significant emission was detected. The implications of this paucity of emission and the derived upper limits are discussed.Comment: accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journa

A Multi-wavelength View of the TeV Blazar Markarian 421: Correlated Variability, Flaring, and Spectral Evolution

We report results from a multi-wavelength monitoring campaign on Mrk 421 over the period of 2003-2004. The source was observed simultaneously at TeV and X-ray energies, with supporting observations frequently carried out at optical and radio wavelengths. The large amount of simultaneous data has allowed us to examine the variability of Mrk 421 in detail. The variabilities are generally correlated between the X-ray and gamma-ray bands, although the correlation appears to be fairly loose. The light curves show the presence of flares with varying amplitudes on a wide range of timescales both at X-ray and TeV energies. Of particular interest is the presence of TeV flares that have no coincident counterparts at longer wavelengths, because the phenomenon seems difficult to understand in the context of the proposed emission models for TeV blazars. We have also found that the TeV flux reached its peak days before the X-ray flux during a giant flare in 2004. Such a difference in the development of the flare presents a further challenge to the emission models. Mrk 421 varied much less at optical and radio wavelengths. Surprisingly, the normalized variability amplitude in optical seems to be comparable to that in radio, perhaps suggesting the presence of different populations of emitting electrons in the jet. The spectral energy distribution (SED) of Mrk 421 is seen to vary with flux, with the two characteristic peaks moving toward higher energies at higher fluxes. We have failed to fit the measured SEDs with a one-zone SSC model; introducing additional zones greatly improves the fits. We have derived constraints on the physical properties of the X-ray/gamma-ray flaring regions from the observed variability (and SED) of the source. The implications of the results are discussed. (Abridged)Comment: 32 pages, 12 figures, to appear in Ap