Prediction of inherited genomic susceptibility to 20 common cancer types by a supervised machine-learning method.

Prevention and early intervention are the most effective ways of avoiding or minimizing psychological, physical, and financial suffering from cancer. However, such proactive action requires the ability to predict the individual's susceptibility to cancer with a measure of probability. Of the triad of cancer-causing factors (inherited genomic susceptibility, environmental factors, and lifestyle factors), the inherited genomic component may be derivable from the recent public availability of a large body of whole-genome variation data. However, genome-wide association studies have so far showed limited success in predicting the inherited susceptibility to common cancers. We present here a multiple classification approach for predicting individuals' inherited genomic susceptibility to acquire the most likely phenotype among a panel of 20 major common cancer types plus 1 "healthy" type by application of a supervised machine-learning method under competing conditions among the cohorts of the 21 types. This approach suggests that, depending on the phenotypes of 5,919 individuals of "white" ethnic population in this study, (i) the portion of the cohort of a cancer type who acquired the observed type due to mostly inherited genomic susceptibility factors ranges from about 33 to 88% (or its corollary: the portion due to mostly environmental and lifestyle factors ranges from 12 to 67%), and (ii) on an individual level, the method also predicts individuals' inherited genomic susceptibility to acquire the other types ranked with associated probabilities. These probabilities may provide practical information for individuals, heath professionals, and health policymakers related to prevention and/or early intervention of cancer

Determinants of Inflation in Poland: A Structural Cointegration Approach

Using cointegration and error-correction models, this paper analyses the relative impacts of the monetary, labour and foreign sectors on Polish inflation from 1990 to 1999. Following the development of a theoretical framework, we use a structural system approach in which cointegration relationships are used to derive deviations from steady-state levels. The deviations are interpreted as excess demand pressure on inflation in a given sector and subsequently incorporated in order to determine the short-run dynamics of Polish inflation. The results suggest that the labour and external sectors dominated the determination of Polish inflation during the above period, but their effects have been opposite since 1994. The appreciation of the domestic currency contributed to reducing inflation, while excessive wage increases prevented inflation from decreasing to a lower level. The monetary sector appears not to have exerted influence on inflation, suggesting monetary policy has been passive.inflation; cointegration; error correction mechanism; Poland

Informal Economy Activities and Entrepreneurship in Russia

This paper uses the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) from 1998 to 2004 to analyze the effect of previous informal economy activities on the creation of official entrepreneurship. We find that previous participation in the informal economy is positively associated with the probability to become registered entrepreneurs in the present. We also find that that self-employment is used as a transition mechanism to entrepreneurship and moonlighters in the past are more active in actual job changes. Furthermore, a survival function analysis suggests that previous experience as self-employed moonlighters enhances the probability of success as official entrepreneur. Workers who moonlighted as selfemployed in the past represent 16-22% of the new entrepreneurs. --Informal economy,entrepreneurs,Russia

Plan, siphoning and corruption in the Soviet command economy

This paper reconsiders Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny’s suggestion that a socialist industry will always prefer to cut both price and output relative to a market–clearing equilibrium in order to maximise bribe income. The evidence from recent archival studies of the Soviet economy does not support this conjecture. To understand the evidence we present an analytical framework within which a plan–setter and an effort–setter interact, subject to a hard resource constraint, to determine real output and hidden inflation simultaneously. We find that managers who use resources gained corruptly were enabled to produce more real output with less hidden inflation and fulfil the plan more honestly as a result. We find clear rationales for plan–setters to have tolerated corruption and siphoning while maintaining plan tension, and we associate reduced plan tension in the 1970s with the spread of disloyal behaviours