Productivity growth and resource degradation in Pakistan's Punjab - a decomposition analysis

The introduction of green revolution technologies in wheat, and rice production in Asia, in the mid 1960s reversed the food crisis, and stimulated rapid agricultural, and economic growth. But the sustainability of this intensification strategy is being questioned, in light of the heavy use of external inputs, and growing evidence of a slowdown in productivity growth, and degradation of the resource base. The authors address the critical issue of long-term productivity, and the sustainability of Pakistan's irrigated agriculture. To estimate changes in total factor productivity in four production systems of Punjab province, they assemble district-level data on 33 crops, 8 livestock products, and 17 input categories. They find that average annual growth in total factor productivity was moderately high (1.26 percent) for both crops, and livestock for the period 1966-94, but observe wide variation in productivity growth by cropping system. A second, disaggregated data set on soil, and water quality reveals significant resource degradation. The authors use the two data sets to decompose the effects of technical change, and resource degradation through application of a cost function. They find that continuous, and widespread resource degradation (as measured by soil and water quality variables) has had a significant negative effect on productivity, especially in the wheat-rice system, where resource degradation has more than offset the productivity effects of technological change. Degradation of the health of the agro-ecosystem was related in part, to modern technologies, mono-cropping, and mismanagement of water resources. The results call for urgent analysis of technology, and options to arrest the degradation of resources.Environmental Economics&Policies,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Agricultural Research,Economic Theory&Research,Drylands&Desertification

The rise of large farms in land abundant countries : do they have a future ?

Increased levels and volatility of food prices has led to a surge of interest in large-scale agriculture and land acquisition. This creates challenges for policy makers aiming to establish a policy environment conducive to an agrarian structure to contribute to broad-based development in the long term. Based on a historical review of episodes of growth of large farms and their impact, this paper identifies factors underlying the dominance of owner-operated farm structures and ways in which these may change with development. The amount of land that could potentially be available for expansion and the level of productivity in exploiting available land resources are used to establish a country-level typology. The authors highlight that an assessment of the advantages of large operations, together with information on endowments, can provide input into strategy formulation at the country level. A review of recent cases of land acquisition reinforces the importance of the policy framework in determining outcomes. It suggests that transparency and contract enforcement, recognition of local land rights and ways in which they can be exercised, attention to employment effects and technical viability, and mechanisms to re-allocate land from unsuccessful ventures to more productive entrepreneurs are key areas warranting the attention of policy makers.Environmental Economics&Policies,Agricultural Knowledge&Information Systems,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems,Banks&Banking Reform,Labor Policies

Maize revolutions in Sub-Saharan Africa

There have been numerous episodes of widespread adoption of improved seed and long-term achievements in the development of the maize seed industry in Sub-Saharan Africa. This summary takes a circumspect view of technical change in maize production. Adoption of improved seed has continued to rise gradually, now representing an estimated 44 percent of maize area in Eastern and Southern Africa (outside South Africa), and 60 percent of maize area in West and Central Africa. Use of fertilizer and restorative crop management practices remains relatively low and inefficient. An array of extension models has been tested and a combination of approaches will be needed to reach maize producers in heterogeneous agricultural environments. Yield growth overall has been 1 percent over the past half-century, although this figure masks the high variability in maize yields, as well as improvements in resistance to disease and abiotic pressures that would have caused yield decline in the absence of maize breeding progress. The authors argue that conducive policies are equally, if not more, important for maize productivity in the region than the development of new technology and techniques. Currently popular, voucher-based subsidies can"crowd out"the private sector and could be fiscally unsustainable.Crops&Crop Management Systems,Agricultural Research,Food&Beverage Industry,Food Security,Agricultural Knowledge&Information Systems

Maize Revolutions in Sub-Saharan Africa

There have been numerous episodes of widespread adoption of improved seed and long-term achievements in the development of the maize seed industry in Sub-Saharan Africa. This summary takes a circumspect view of technical change in maize production. Adoption of improved seed has continued to rise gradually, now representing an estimated 44 percent of maize area in Eastern and Southern Africa (outside South Africa), and 60 percent of maize area in West and Central Africa. Use of fertilizer and restorative crop management practices remains relatively low and inefficient. An array of extension models has been tested and a combination of approaches will be needed to reach maize producers in heterogeneous agricultural environments. Yield growth overall has been 1 percent over the past half-century, although this figure masks the high variability in maize yields, as well as improvements in resistance to disease and abiotic pressures that would have caused yield decline in the absence of maize breeding progress. The authors argue that conducive policies are equally, if not more, important for maize productivity in the region than the development of new technology and techniques. Currently popular, voucher-based subsidies can “crowd out” the private sector and could be fiscally unsustainable.Sub-Saharan Africa, maize, seed, Agricultural and Food Policy, Production Economics,

Policies to promote cereal intensification in Ethiopia: A review of evidence and experience

Dawit Alemu: DCA, EthiopiaCereal crops, Agricultural development, Agricultural extension work, Fertilizers, Seed industry and trade Developing countries, Public investment, Food policy,

Technical Change and Returns to Wheat Breeding Research in Pakistan's Punjab in the Post-Green Revolution Period

Rates of yield gain and returns to investment in wheat breeding research are estimated for Pakistan's Punjab for the period since the introduction of semidwarf varieties. Analysis of two comprehensive data sets indicates that wheat breeders have maintained a rate of yield gain in newer releases of semidwarf varieties of about 1 percent per year. Improved disease resistance of newer varieties may have also prevented a yield decline of the order of 0.25 percent per year. Yield gains on farms may be less (0.6 percent per year) because of slow diffusion of new varieties. Given costs of wheat research, returns to investment in wheat breeding have been above 20 percent and are over 15 percent even if all research costs at the national and international level are included. However, more rapid diffusion of new varieties in the Punjab could considerably increase returns to wheat research.

Toward a Strategy and Results Framework for the CGIAR

tbd. Document discussed at ExCo16

Ex Post Evaluation of Economic Impacts of Agricultural Research Programs: a Tour of Good Practice

Revised version of a paper presented to the Workshop on "The Future of Impact Assessment in CGIAR: Needs, Constraints, and Options", Standing Panel on Impact Assessment (SPIA) of the Technical Advisory Committee, Rome, May 3-6, 2000, FAO, Rome.This paper summarizes "state of the art" in ex post economic impact assessment of agricultural research with an emphasis on providing a practical guide that can be used by research managers and economists working within a research organization under tight time and resource constraints. Much of the early part of the paper is focused on conceptual and methodological issues. Later sections of the paper turn to implementation issues, especially the implementation of impact assessment as a routine activity. Throughout, the focus is on public research organizations in developing countries, both national and international, and only in one section do we focus on the emphasize the special issues in international research organizations. The underlying premise is that evaluation work in the CGIAR should increasingly be based on evaluation work undertaken in NARSs, with IARCs providing a facilitating and synthetic role

Agricultural development and urban unemployment : a simulation analysis of the Nigerian economy

The study critically analyzes the implication of various agricultural development policies on urban unemployment and income distribution. More specifically it focuses on the evaluation of agricultural policies at the macro-economic Level in the Nigerian economy. A system science and simulation approach is used to build and test a ten sector macro-economic model of the Nigerian economy to investigate the problem. The model simulates consumption, investment, employment and production endogenously. Validation of the model shows that it is capable of describing the major trends in the Nigerian economy for recent history. By interacting with a detailed agricultural sector model, the macro-model enables evaluation of agricultural policies in the context of the total economy after taking account of the important interactions between the agricultural and nonagricultural economies. In particular the model enables some measures of income distribution and employment to be included as targets of economic development planning together with the conventional target of growth. The model predicts that if current agricultural policies are continued, urban unemployment and income disparities will become increasingly more serious in Nigeria. Furthermore, the income differential between agriculture and nonagriculture is predicted to widen leading to a continuing increase in the rate of labor migration out of agriculture. The evaluation of two sets of agricultural policies, export crop modernization and food crop modernization, leads to a serious questioning of the present emphasis among development economists on agricultural development as a means of steadying the flow of rural-urban migration and reducing urban unemployment and rural-urban income inequities. Because of the considerable multiplier effects of increased agricultural incomes on nonagricultural incomes, both agricultural policies produced a wider differential between agricultural and nonagricultural incomes stimulating further labor migration out of agriculture. This effect was particularly acute in the case of the food modernization policy where the terms of trade turned against agriculture. Nevertheless both sets of policies and particularly the export modernization policy improved the disparity in self-employed earnings and wage earnings and produced a steady rise in nonagricultural self-employed earnings which, under current policies, were predicted to stagnate because of rising urban unemployment. Other policies to restrain wages and increase government employment demonstrated the considerable trade-off between various groups of the population arising out of the complexity of interactions between the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors. The macroeconomic simulation model is suggested as a useful approach to development planning where there is need to consider interactions between sectors and trade-offs between targets of development

SDG2 – The Elusive Global Quest to End Hunger

SDG2 recognizes that access to sufficient, nutritious and safe food is arguably the most fundamental necessity for a healthy and productive life. This chapter provides an overview of the many dimensions of hunger and malnutrition and how societies from ancient times—states, civil society, and private philanthropists—have gradually organized collectively to reduce the burden of hunger and malnutrition. The chapter begins with a discussion of famine, the most visible manifestation of hunger throughout history that was once a scourge in most societies but has now largely been eliminated in the twenty-first century. We then discuss how from the early twentieth century the goal of zero hunger became an international cause and a basic human right. The review then moves to the post-Second World War period when foreign assistance programs and countries focused on producing more staples to feed the world’s burgeoning population, narrowly measured in per capita calories supplied. In the 1980s, the focus turned from supply to access to food, and from around 1990 to the multiple dimensions of malnutrition, now including obesity. This has resulted in the move to multi-sectoral approaches including agriculture, the food industry, nutrition policy, public health, and the status of women. Finally, we conclude that although the world has registered impressive achievements on some measures of malnutrition, the continuing presence of hundreds of millions suffering chronic malnourishment in its various dimensions remains a huge challenge but one that with sufficient will and focus can be solved with available resources and knowledge