Modeling and stability analysis of the African swine fever epidemic model

Paper presented at the 5th Strathmore International Mathematics Conference (SIMC 2019), 12 - 16 August 2019, Strathmore University, Nairobi, KenyaIn this paper, a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics and control of African swine fever with recruitment of susceptible, exposed and infective domestic pigs into the population is studied using a system of ordinary differential equations. The basic reproduction number Ro for the model was obtained and its dependence on model parameters discussed. Without the inflow of exposed and infective pigs into the population, the model exhibits the disease-free equilibrium Eo and the endemic equilibrium El. The disease-free equilibrium Eo is globally stable if the basic reproduction number Ro < 1 and the disease will be wiped out of the population. If Ro > 1, the endemic equilibrium El is asyrnptotically globally stable and the disease persists in the population. With the influx of exposed and infective domestic pigs, the model has only a unique endemic equilibrium Ee that is globally asymptotically stable and the disease persists. Numerical simulation is carried out to verify the analytical results. It is revealed that with the influx of the exposed and infected pigs, the disease is maintained at endemic equilibrium.Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Uganda

Modelling transmission and control of African Swine Fever in Uganda with transportation of infected pigs

Paper presented at the 4th Strathmore International Mathematics Conference (SIMC 2017), 19 - 23 June 2017, Strathmore University, Nairobi, Kenya.African Swine Fever (ASF) is a devastating haemorrhagic fever of pigs that causes up to 100% mortality, for which there is no vaccine and treatment. Its highly contagious nature and ability to spread over long distances make it one of the most feared diseases, since it’s devastating effects on pig production have been experienced most of sub-Saharan Africa. A mathematical model for spread and control of African Swine Fever with and without transportation of infected pigs is studied using a system of ordinary differential equations. Model analysis is carried out for existence and stability of the equilibrium points to establish the long time behavior of the disease. It is revealed that without inflow of infected pigs into the population, the model has both the disease free and the endemic equilibrium points. The disease free equilibrium point is globally stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one and the disease can be wiped out of the community. If R0>1, the endemic equilibrium point is globally stable and the disease persists in the community. With transportation of infected pigs, the model only has the endemic equilibrium point which is locally stable. This indicates that with constant inflow of infected pigs the disease cannot be wiped out of the community

Maize germ and bran for value addition : high fiber bakery and confectionery products

The research aimed to add value to maize germ and bran, to develop improved products for human consumption, and to contribute to food security and human nutrition. Of low economic value, maize germ and bran currently dominate the livestock feed sector. However, with careful handling these processing by-products could be made to impact the confectionery and bakery sector. By incorporating them into bakery and confectionery products, nutritional value would be enhanced. The Ministry of Health and Uganda National Bureau of Standards can develop, implement and enforce standards for a positive impact on Food and Nutrition Policy

Expanding market access and value addition in selected agricultural value chains: the role of IAR4D in the Lake Kivu Pilot Learning Site

Limited access to profitable markets and production resources by smallholders restricts expansion and investment in technologies that could increase efficiency and add value to primary production. Two cases from the DRC and Rwanda, targeting the collective marketing, value addition and processing of banana and Irish potatoes, are used to demonstrate the IAR4D approach. The results show that, through collective marketing and banana processing, farmers are able to increase their returns by about 50% compared to the period before IAR4D interventions. The shelf life of the products was also increased drastically. Market efficiency improved for Irish potatoes by reducing transaction costs and decreasing the market intermediaries who would extract larger margins at the expense of the producers. Thus the tonnage of potatoes marketed increased from about 3 to 15 MTs in less than one year, while farmers were able to earn up to 10% higher prices through the IPs. Transformation to prevent postharvest losses experienced by farmers in general and members of IPs in particular is recommended. The use of flexible contracts, coupled with support from credit institutions, is also recommended