Chinese Naval Strategy, the United States, ASEAN and the South China Sea

The South China Sea has become a focal point for US-China rivalry which makes it such a critical issue today. China�s naval strategy demands control over the South China Sea for the various missions the navy has set itself. It justifies China�s assertive actions that have been intended to press the ASEAN claimants, Vietnam and the Philippines in particular, to recognise Chinese sovereignty. The United States cannot accept Chinese control over the South China Sea, it has reacted to China�s assertiveness by repositioning its forces in the Asia Pacific and strengthening security ties with the ASEAN claimants. ASEAN itself becomes sidelined in this rivalry and struggles to maintain its relevance, the proposals it has promoted to resolve the South China Sea dispute such as the code of conduct lose importance. Rather than discussing a resolution of the issue it would be more realistic to negotiate an agreement preventing incidents at sea or similar measure which would reduce the likelihood of conflict

The South China Sea Maritime Dispute: Legality, Power, and Conflict Prevention

Tensions in the South China Sea have risen in recent years for reasons related to conflicting territorial claims and rivalry, competition for access to fish stocks as well as oil and gas fields, and in Chinas case, emerging strategic interests. Because international law largely excludes it from an area it regards as historically Chinese, China has recently become more assertive in pushing its claim, resorting to power projection, particularly against smaller claimants, such as Vietnam and the Philippines. Chinas actions have drawn in external powers, including the United States, Japan, and India, a development that exacerbates the problem. The danger is not that the United States and China may come into a direct conflict, but that through error or miscalculation a clash may escalate into a conflict involving external powers. Proposals to prevent conflict and stabilize the area include an agreement to avoid incidents at sea. Also a UN-sponsored conference on the South China Sea could contribute to a long-term resolution of the issue by dealing with competing claims in a semi-enclosed sea and other outstanding issues

US bases in the Philippines: issues and implications

The United States maintains in the Philippines its most significant military presence - in terms of bases, facilities, forces and capabilities - in the Southeast Asian and Southwest Pacific region. The bases are designed to support US military operations not just in this region but also in Northeast Asia and throughout the Indian Ocean/Persian Gulf region. The Military Bases Agreement (MBA) between the United States and the Philippines expires in September 1991. There is a very real possibility that the Agreement will not be renewed and that the US will have to vacate the bases and dismantle the facilities. This monograph is intended to provide a basis for informed discussion of issues involved in the presence of the US bases and facilities in the Philippines and their possible closure and relocation elsewhere in the region. It includes discussion of the general political relationship between the United States and the Philippines; the current Philippine domestic political issues; the attitudes of the ASEAN countries; the various redeployment options available to the United States in the region; and the strategic and political implications of the bases issue for Australia

Vietnam's withdrawal from Cambodia: regional issues and realignments

Vietnamese armed forces invaded Cambodia in December 1978. A decade of Vietnamese occupation had important political and security consequences for Cambodians, for Vietnam, for the ASEAN states, for China and the superpowers and, indirectly, for Australia. Vietnam was condemned in UN General Assembly Resolutions passed annually since 1979. Most Vietnamese armed forces have now been withdrawn from Cambodia. The significance of the withdrawal and the regional impact of the end of possibly the last major war in the Western Pacific were examined at a symposium arranged by Professor Nancy Viviani of the ANU's Department of Political Science in October 1989. These papers are a product of that symposium. Generally, there was a strong view that the governments of Vietnam and Cambodia would eventually experience a less hostile attitude from China, the US and several of the key ASEAN states as the fact of the Vietnamese withdrawal was accepted. The Hun Sen government in Phnom Penh, or some variant of it, would also probably be recognised, provided it could survive renewed attacks by an increasingly isolated Khmer Rouge and if a suitably graceful exit was found for China. An alternative more pessimistic view was that most governments would continue to defer to Beijing, that the Khmer Rouge were a potent and ruthless force and that the Hun Sen government would be fighting for its life. While there was scepticism about the viability of the Hun Sen government and doubts about China's agenda, as well as expressions of opposition to recognition of what was described as a puppet regime established by the use of force, the symposium overall leaned towards cautious optimism about Cambodia's future and, notwithstanding some uncertainties in a period of change, improvements to regional security

China's crisis: the international implications

China has always been important to countries in the Asia/Pacific region, whether as a vortex of disarray and discontent or - as it has appeared to be, particularly over the last decade - as a modernising great Asian power. In this latter context, China was increasingly accepted as a responsible participant in regional and global affairs. Although China's military capabilities and its political ambitions were regarded with residual distrust by some neighbouring countries, such misgivings were increasingly overshadowed by expectations of a new China possessing the largest potential market remaining in the world today. The Tiananmen affair, as it is now known, seemed to shatter any assumptions about China's stability, its economic potential and certainly some of the illusions about China's political system. This unique collection of papers begins with an analysis of the political situation in China, as seen from Beijing and Canberra. It provides detailed assessments of the way in which countries throughout the Asia/Pacific region, including Australia, responded or did not respond. There is an overview on Hong Kong and its governability and extensive discussion on the strategic and economic implications, if any, for China and for neighbouring and regional states, of events in Beijing in June 1989