Procedimento para análise de decisão quanto à prevenção de doenças em animais: uma aplicação da Teoria dos Jogos

The basic hypothesis of this study is that producers do not realize, individually, the importance of adopting preventive measures, even aware of the economic risks for them and for the local economy, because outbreaks of some diseases are not frequent. Moreover, the presence of externalities makes the action of one producer regarding sanitary measures of the herd affect other producers in the same region, which cannot be perceived by them, either. This study aims to develop a theoretical procedure to infer about strategic decisions taken by producers to prevent animal disease in their herds, in face of the risk of contamination. The development of the model is based on the Game Theory, and the cost-benefit analysis as support for decision-making process. After modeling the problem and determining the equilibriums, they are used to elaborate inferences about possible actions of the government through economic incentives (such as indemnities and fines) to encourage the prevention. Then, the theoretical model is applied to a specific case of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Brazil. Results indicate that with the absence of a differentiated market for non-vaccinated animals, the game equilibrium tends to the situation in which decisions of producer are to vaccinate their herd, suggesting that government intervention is not necessary. In practice, however, the Brazilian government uses incentive policies for cattle vaccination since some producers do not vaccinate their animals, despite their awareness of the risks, which suggests lack of rationality.Game Theory, Foot-and-mouth disease, Meat sector, Benefit/cost analysis, Decision making theory, Agribusiness, C72, D81, Q18.,

PERSPECTIVAS PARA O SETOR SUCROALCOOLEIRO BRASILEIRO NOS PROGRAMAS DE ÁLCOOL COMBUSTÍVEL DA UNIÃO EUROPÉIA, JAPÃO E BRASIL

O presente trabalho teve como objetivo delinear cenários para o consumo de álcool utilizado como combustível no Japão, nas maiores economias da União Européia (Alemanha, França, Itália, Reino Unido), mercados com potencial para serem grandes importadores de álcool combustível brasileiro, considerando-se um horizonte até o ano de 2012. Efetua-se também uma comparação entre o potencial de importação destes mercados com o mercado doméstico brasileiro. O Japão é o país desenvolvido com maior potencial para se tornar um grande importador de álcool brasileiro. No cenário mais otimista apresentou-se a possibilidade de consumo de aproximadamente 6,5 bilhões de litros. Na União Européia, o cenário mais otimista de consumo seria da ordem de 1,36 bilhões de litros. Projetou-se, ainda, o consumo de álcool anidro e hidratado no Brasil, o mercado doméstico apresenta o maior potencial de demanda para o setor sucroalcooleiro brasileiro, podendo atingir 17,4 bilhões de litros.---------------------------------------------The present work had as objective to delineate scenes for the consumption of ethanol used as combustible in Japan, in the biggest economies of the European Union (Germany, France, Italy, the United kingdom), markets with potential to be great Brazilian combustible alcohol importers, considering a horizon until the year of 2012. A comparison is also effected enters the potential of importation of these markets with the Brazilian domestic market. Japan is the developed country, analysed, with bigger potential to become a great Brazilian importer of ethanol. In the scene most optimistical it was presented approximately possibility of consumption of 6,5 billion liters. In the European Union, the consumption scene most optimistical would be of the order of 1,36 billion liters. It was projected, still, the consumption of alcohol in Brazil, the Brazilian market as being the biggest potential market with respect to the Brazilian producers of alcohol, being able to reach 17,4 billion liters.Álcool, Brasil, Japão e União Européia, Ethanol, Japan, European Union and Brazil, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Procedimento para análise de decisão quanto à prevenção de doenças em animais: uma aplicação da Teoria dos Jogos

A hipótese básica do trabalho é que, mesmo quando cientes dos riscos econômicos envolvidos, alguns produtores não reconhecem, individualmente, a importância em adotar medidas preventivas, uma vez que a ocorrência de algumas doenças não é frequente. Ademais, a existência de externalidades faz com que a ação de um produtor em relação às medidas sanitárias afete os demais produtores da mesma região, o que também pode não ser percebido por eles. O presente trabalho busca desenvolver um procedimento teórico que permita inferir sobre as decisões estratégicas de produtores quanto à prevenção contra doenças em animais, face ao risco de contaminação de seu rebanho. O desenvolvimento do modelo é baseado na Teoria dos Jogos e na análise de Benefício-Custo como base para a tomada de decisão. Depois de modelado o problema, infere-se sobre as possíveis atuações do governo, no uso de incentivos econômicos (como indenizações e multas) para que o equilíbrio seja o da prevenção. Em seguida, o modelo teórico é aplicado a um caso de surto de febre aftosa no Brasil. O resultado mostrou que, na ausência de um mercado diferenciado para animal não vacinado, o equilíbrio do jogo tende para a situação em que produtores decidem vacinar seu rebanho, sugerindo que não existe a necessidade de intervenção do governo. Na prática, no entanto, o governo brasileiro estabelece políticas de incentivo, visto que alguns produtores não vacinam seu rebanho mesmo conhecendo os riscos, o que sugere falta de racionalidade.The basic hypothesis of this study is that producers do not realize, individually, the importance of adopting preventive measures, even aware of the economic risks for them and for the local economy, because outbreaks of some diseases are not frequent. Moreover, the presence of externalities makes the action of one producer regarding sanitary measures of the herd affect other producers in the same region, which cannot be perceived by them, either. This study aims to develop a theoretical procedure to infer about strategic decisions taken by producers to prevent animal disease in their herds, in face of the risk of contamination. The development of the model is based on the Game Theory, and the cost-benefit analysis as support for decision-making process. After modeling the problem and determining the equilibriums, they are used to elaborate inferences about possible actions of the government through economic incentives (such as indemnities and fines) to encourage the prevention. Then, the theoretical model is applied to a specific case of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Brazil. Results indicate that with the absence of a differentiated market for non-vaccinated animals, the game equilibrium tends to the situation in which decisions of producer are to vaccinate their herd, suggesting that government intervention is not necessary. In practice, however, the Brazilian government uses incentive policies for cattle vaccination since some producers do not vaccinate their animals, despite their awareness of the risks, which suggests lack of rationality

Análise do grau de restritividade de exigências técnicas à s exportações brasileiras

The objective of this investigation was to evaluate to what degree technical requirements restrict Brazilian exports, based on a survey applied to 77 firms. The variables represented six types of technical measures that are usually imposed upon exported products. To facilitate the interpretation of the results, factorial analysis was used to reduce the number of variables involved. This allowed the construction of two indicators of the degree of restrictiveness of the technical barriers focused by the study. These were an indicator of requirements of technical specification (ITS) and an indicator for information and label requirements (IIL). Descriptive statistics and paired t test showed that the firms surveyed considered the ITS more restrictive to their exports, that is, these have been subject to greater restrictions affecting the production process, including quality, the production process pattern and conformity assessment.Technical requirements, Survey, Brazilian exports, Restrictiveness indicators, International Relations/Trade,

Impact of Sanitary and Technical Measures on Brazilian Exports of Poultry Meat

The major objective of this work is to evaluate the effects of technical and sanitary measures introduced by the main world importers upon Brazilian poultry meat in the international market. The impact of the measures is estimated using a gravity model constructed with disaggregated data about bilateral poultry meat between Brazil and its major trade partners for the period from 1996 to 2009. The gravity model is estimated with a fixed effects model and the results indicate that the impact of TBT and SPS measures upon Brazilian poultry meat exports is ambiguous. The results indicated that the existence of technical and sanitary regulations related to labelling might be stimulating trade of this product, while the presence regulations related to compliance appears to reduce the volume of Brazilian exports of poultry meat. In addition, the existence of prohibitive (and/or subject to quarantine) technical and sanitary measures may present a positive impact upon the traded volume of Brazilian exports of poultry meat. This result is relevant since it indicates the importance in considering different characteristics and content of regulations to analyse the impacts of TBT and SPS measures upon trade.Technical and Sanitary measure, Poultry meat, Gravity equation, International Relations/Trade,

Bioenergy and the Rise of Sugarcane-Based Ethanol in Brazil

Crop Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q42, O54, 013,

IMPORTÂNCIA DAS EXIGÊNCIAS TÉCNICAS À EXPORTAÇÃO DE EMPRESAS BRASILEIRAS

This article presents results of a survey applied to Brazilian exporting firms to obtain primary data, which are subject to a statistical analysis about the relative importance attributed to technical barriers to trade. The methodological procedure used consisted in Rio Branco – Acre, 20 a 23 de julho de 2008 Sociedade Brasileira de Economia, Administração e Sociologia Rural factor analysis. This allowed the construction of three indexes: Traditional determinants Index - ICOND, Trade Impediments Index - IIMP and Technical requirements Index - IEXIG. The results indicated that technical requirements effects are different than other variables that affect exports. Additionally, the firms surveyed considered the IEXIG more restrictive than IIMP to their exports. This perception is different within the sectors evaluated.technical barriers, Brazilian exports, factor analysis, International Relations/Trade,

Asymmetric price transmission in the brazilian refined sugar market

This work evaluates the price relations and transmission patterns between producers and retail in the market for refined sugar in Sao Paulo, Brazil, its direction and magnitude. The results suggest that the transmission of shocks is bidirectional. Formal tests suggest that the symmetry in price transmission from retail to producer cannot be rejected in short and long-run. Therefore, positive and negative exogenous shocks of refined sugar at the retail impact producer’s prices in the same magnitude. From producer to retail prices, the tests confirmed a negative asymmetry in price transmission. It means that a reduction in producer prices has a stronger impact in reducing retail prices than when a positive shock on producer prices is transmitted to increase retail prices

Escalada tarifária e exportações brasileiras da agroindústria do café e da soja

A escalada tarifária, em que o emprego de tarifas de importação sobre componentes ou matéria-prima é mais baixo e aumenta progressivamente para bens semifinais ou finais, estimula a importação de produtos primários em detrimento dos processados. Este artigo mensura os ganhos para o Brasil com a eliminação da escalada tarifária para produtos do café na União Européia (UE), e da soja na China e na UE, comparando esses resultados com os de uma redução da escalada proposta na Rodada Doha da OMC (Organização Mundial do Comércio). Para tanto, foram simuladas reduções tarifárias e quantificados os impactos comerciais com uma modelagem de equilíbrio parcial. Os resultados indicam que as negociações sob a rodada Doha da OMC poderão reduzir a escalada tarifária que incide sobre produtos do café na UE e da soja na China e na UE, no entanto sem a eliminar, para o que seriam necessários cortes tarifários mais elevados. Os impactos comerciais se mostraram maiores na simulação de eliminação da escalada tarifária do que na de uma redução, conforme esperado. Quantificou-se o volume de comércio que o Brasil deixaria de ganhar no caso da adoção da proposta de Doha para corte da escalada. Na UE, o aumento das importações dos produtos brasileiros processados do café e da soja poderia ser 75,4% maior com a eliminação da escalada tarifária do que com a redução conforme Doha.The tariff escalation, where the import duties on components or raw materials are lower, and move progressively higher on semi-finished goods upwards to the finished goods, stimulates the imports of primary commodities rather than processed products. This article measures the gains to Brazil with the elimination of the tariff escalation for coffee products in the European Union (EU), and soybean products in China and in the EU, comparing these results with those of an escalation reduction proposed in the Doha Round of the WTO (World Trade Organization). For that purpose, tariff reductions have been simulated and the impact upon trade has been evaluated with the application of partial equilibrium modeling. The results indicate that trade under the Doha round of the WTO can reduce the tariff escalation although it is not phased out, which would require greater tariff cuts. The impacts upon trade have been higher in the simulation of an elimination of tariff escalation than in its reduction, as expected. It was possible to quantify the trade flows that Brazil would not gain if the Doha proposal for tariff escalation reduction was adopted. The EU imports of coffee and soybean processed products from Brazil could be 75.4 percent higher with the elimination of the tariff escalation than under its reduction according to Doha negotiations