Income, resources, and electricity mix

This paper presents evidence on a national-level electricity ladder which sees countries transition toward coal and natural gas, and finally nuclear power and modern renewables such as wind power, for their electricity needs as they develop. The extent to which countries climb the electricity ladder is dependent on energy endowments. The results imply that the environmental implications of economic development differ in countries with different energy resource endowments. An effective global carbon mitigation strategy will require developing countries to leapfrog the middle rungs of the electricity ladder.economic development, electricity mix, energy, substitution, transition

Gasoline prices and road fatalities: international evidence

This study utilizes data for 144 countries from 1991 to 2010 to present the first international estimates of the gasoline price elasticity of road fatalities. We instrument each country’s gasoline price with that country’s oil reserves and the yearly international crude oil price to address potential endogeneity concerns. Our findings suggest that the average reduction in road fatalities resulting from a 10% increase in the gasoline pump price is in the order of 3%–6%. Around 35,000 road deaths per year could be avoided by the removal of global fuel subsidies

Do output contractions trigger democratic change?

Does faster economic growth increase pressure for democratic change, or reduce it? Using data for 154 countries for the period 1963-2007, we examine the short-run relationship between economic growth and moves toward and away from greater democracy. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, we use variation in precipitation, temperatures, and commodity prices as instruments for a country’s rate of economic growth. Our results indicate that more rapid economic growth reduces the short-run likelihood of institutional change toward democracy. Output contractions due to adverse weather shocks appear to have a particularly important impact on the timing of democratic change.economic growth, democratization, weather, commodity prices

Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?

Does faster economic growth increase pressure for democratic change, or reduce it? Using data for 154 countries for the period 1963-2007, we examine the short-run relationship between economic growth and moves toward and away from greater democracy. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, we use variation in precipitation, temperatures, and commodity prices as instruments for a country’s rate of economic growth. Our results indicate that more rapid economic growth reduces the short-run likelihood of institutional change toward democracy. Output contractions due to adverse weather shocks appear to have a particularly important impact on the timing of democratic change.weather, democratization, economic growth, commodity prices

The national-level energy ladder and its carbon implications

This paper uses data for 134 countries for the period 1960–2010 to document an energy ladder that nations ascend as their economies develop. On average, economic development results in an overall substitution from the use of biomass to energy sourced from fossil fuels, and then increasingly towards nuclear power and certain low-carbon modern renewables such as wind power. The process results in the carbon intensity of energy evolving in an inverse-U manner as per capita incomes increase. Fossil fuel-poor countries climb more quickly to the low-carbon upper rungs of the national-level energy ladder and so typically experience larger reductions in the carbon intensity of energy as they develop. Leapfrogging to low-carbon energy sources on the upper rungs of the national-level energy ladder is one route via which developing countries can reduce the magnitudes of their expected upswings in carbon dioxide emissions

Some consequences of intense electromagnetic wave injection into space plasmas

The future possibility of actively testing the current understanding of how energetic particles may be accelerated in space or dumped from the radiation belts using intense electromagnetic energy from ground based antennas is discussed. The ground source of radiation is merely a convenience. A space station source for radiation that does not have to pass through the atmosphere and lower ionosphere, is an attractive alternative. The text is divided into two main sections addressing the possibilities of: (1) accelerating electrons to fill selected flux tubes above the Kennel-Petscheck limit for stably trapped fluxes, and (2) using an Alfven maser to cause rapid depletion of energetic protons or electrons from the radiation belts

Climbing the electricity ladder generates carbon Kuznets curve downturns

This paper examines why some countries have experienced environmental Kuznets curve (EKC)-type reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, while others have not. The hypothesis that climbing to the upper rungs of the electricity ladder (nuclear power and modern renewables) has been the primary mechanism via which countries have achieved substantial reductions in per capita CO2 emissions is tested using a binomial dependent variable modelling approach for a sample of 105 countries. The findings suggest that electricity mix transitions caused by long-run growth in per capita incomes are indeed the primary determinant of carbon Kuznets curve downturns. The paper explores additional mechanisms via which carbon Kuznets curves may have been generated, but the results indicate that these are of lesser overall importance than the electricity mix effect. The evidence also suggests that countries with larger fossil fuel endowments are less likely to experience carbon Kuznets curve downturns, an additional curse of natural resources

On Impacts of Economic Growth

This thesis presents four papers on impacts of economic growth. The results indicate that faster economic growth improves the short-run political survival prospects of national leaders in both democracies and autocracies, and reduces the short-run likelihood of democratic change. Results also indicate that long-run economic growth sees countries climb an "electricity ladder", substituting away from hydroelectricity and oil-fired electricity and toward electricity generated using coal and natural gas, and finally to nuclear power and modern renewables such as wind power. The extent to which countries climb the electricity ladder as they develop is a function of indigenous energy resources: countries with large endowments of hydro potential or fossil fuels are less likely to adopt nuclear power and modern renewables than otherwise similar countries. Countries that climb to the upper rungs of the electricity ladder are far more likely to experience environmental Kuznets curve-type downturns in carbon dioxide emissions. The results have important implications for actors who wish to encourage political change, and for climate change mitigation action.Funding from the Arndt-Corden Division of Economics, the research budget of Professor Andrew Leigh, and Project 11 of the Environmental Economics Research Hub based at the Australian National University