Vickrey Auctions for Irregular Distributions

The classic result of Bulow and Klemperer \cite{BK96} says that in a single-item auction recruiting one more bidder and running the Vickrey auction achieves a higher revenue than the optimal auction's revenue on the original set of bidders, when values are drawn i.i.d. from a regular distribution. We give a version of Bulow and Klemperer's result in settings where bidders' values are drawn from non-i.i.d. irregular distributions. We do this by modeling irregular distributions as some convex combination of regular distributions. The regular distributions that constitute the irregular distribution correspond to different population groups in the bidder population. Drawing a bidder from this collection of population groups is equivalent to drawing from some convex combination of these regular distributions. We show that recruiting one extra bidder from each underlying population group and running the Vickrey auction gives at least half of the optimal auction's revenue on the original set of bidders

Entry in the ADHD drugs market: Welfare impact of generics and me-toos

Recent decades have seen a growth in treatments for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) including many branded and generic drugs. In the early 2000's, new drug entry dramatically altered market shares. We estimate a demand system for ADHD drugs and assess the welfare impact of new drugs. We find that entry induced large welfare gains by reducing prices of substitute drugs, and by providing alternative delivery mechanisms for existing molecules. Our results suggest that the success of follow-on patented drugs may come from unanticipated innovations like delivery mechanisms, a factor ignored by proposals to retard new follow-on drug approvals

Impact of amoxicillin-clavulanate followed by autologous fecal microbiota transplantation on fecal microbiome structure and metabolic potential

The spread of multidrug resistance among pathogenic organisms threatens the efficacy of antimicrobial treatment options. The human gut serves as a reservoir for many drug-resistant organisms and their resistance genes, and perturbation of the gut microbiome by antimicrobial exposure can open metabolic niches to resistant pathogens. Once established in the gut, antimicrobial-resistant bacteria can persist even after antimicrobial exposure ceases. Strategies to prevent multidrug-resistant organism (MDRO) infections are scarce, but autologous fecal microbiota transplantation (autoFMT) may limit gastrointestinal MDRO expansion. AutoFMT involves banking one’s feces during a healthy state for later use in restoring gut microbiota following perturbation. This pilot study evaluated the effect of amoxicillin-clavulanic acid (Amox-Clav) exposure and autoFMT on gastrointestinal microbiome taxonomic composition, resistance gene content, and metabolic capacity. Importantly, we found that metabolic capacity was perturbed even in cases where gross phylogeny remained unchanged and that autoFMT was safe and well tolerated.Strategies to prevent multidrug-resistant organism (MDRO) infections are scarce, but autologous fecal microbiota transplantation (autoFMT) may limit gastrointestinal MDRO expansion. AutoFMT involves banking one’s feces during a healthy state for later use in restoring gut microbiota following perturbation. This pilot study evaluated the effect of autoFMT on gastrointestinal microbiome taxonomic composition, resistance gene content, and metabolic capacity after exposure to amoxicillin-clavulanic acid (Amox-Clav). Ten healthy participants were enrolled. All received 5 days of Amox-Clav. Half were randomized to autoFMT, derived from stool collected pre-antimicrobial exposure, by enema, and half to saline enema. Participants submitted stool samples pre- and post-Amox-Clav and enema and during a 90-day follow-up period. Shotgun metagenomic sequencing revealed taxonomic composition, resistance gene content, and metabolic capacity. Amox-Clav significantly altered gut taxonomic composition in all participants (n = 10, P  0.05, compared to enrollment). Alterations to microbial metabolic capacity occurred following antimicrobial exposure even in participants without substantial taxonomic disruption, potentially creating open niches for pathogen colonization. Our findings suggest that metabolic potential is an important consideration for complete assessment of antimicrobial impact on the microbiome. AutoFMT was well tolerated and may have contributed to phylogenetic recovery. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under identifier NCT02046525.

Quantity and quality of empathic responding by autistic and non-autistic adolescent girls and boys

Empathy evokes support for the person in distress, and thus strengthening social cohesion. The question is to what extent empathic reactions can be observed in autistic adolescents and autistic girls in particular, since there is evidence that they have better social skills than boys, which might hinder their recognition as autistic. We examined 193 adolescents (autistic/non-autistic boys/girls) during an in vivo task in which the experimenter hurt herself. In line with our predictions, no group or gender differences appeared related to their attention for the event; yet autistic girls and boys showed less visible emotional arousal, indicative of less affective empathy. Autistic girls and boys reacted by comforting the experimenter equally often as their non-autistic peers, but autistic boys seemed to address the problem more often than any other group; while girls (autistic and non-autistic) more often addressed the emotion of the person in need. Our findings highlight that empathic behaviour – to some extent – seems similar between autistic and non-autistic boys and girls. However, differences exist, in terms of expressed emotional arousal and gender-specific comforting styles. Autistic girls’ higher levels of emotion-focused comforting could be explained by well-developed social skills, camouflaging, or emotional investment in relationships with others

Lunar Outgassing, Transient Phenomena and The Return to The Moon, I: Existing Data

Herein the transient lunar phenomena (TLP) report database is subjected to a discriminating statistical filter robust against sites of spurious reports, and produces a restricted sample that may be largely reliable. This subset is highly correlated geographically with the catalog of outgassing events seen by the Apollo 15, 16 and Lunar Prospector alpha-particle spectrometers for episodic Rn-222 gas release. Both this robust TLP sample and even the larger, unfiltered sample are highly correlated with the boundary between mare and highlands, as are both deep and shallow moonquakes, as well as Po-210, a long-lived product of Rn-222 decay and a further tracer of outgassing. This offers another significant correlation relating TLPs and outgassing, and may tie some of this activity to sagging mare basalt plains (perhaps mascons). Additionally, low-level but likely significant TLP activity is connected to recent, major impact craters (while moonquakes are not), which may indicate the effects of cracks caused by the impacts, or perhaps avalanches, allowing release of gas. The majority of TLP (and Rn-222) activity, however, is confined to one site that produced much of the basalt in the Procellarum Terrane, and it seems plausible that this TLP activity may be tied to residual outgassing from the formerly largest volcanic ffusion sites from the deep lunar interior. With the coming in the next few years of robotic spacecraft followed by human exploration, the study of TLPs and outgassing is both promising and imperiled. We will have an unprecedented pportunity to study lunar outgassing, but will also deal with a greater burden of anthropogenic lunar gas than ever produced. There is a pressing need to study lunar atmosphere and its sources while still pristine. [Abstract abridged.]Comment: 35 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Icarus. Other papers in series found at http://www.astro.columbia.edu/~arlin/TLP

The probability of sale and price premiums in withdrawn auctioned properties

This paper examines the impact of the auction process of residential properties that whilst unsuccessful at auction sold subsequently. The empirical analysis considers both the probability of sale and the premium of the subsequent sale price over the guide price, reserve and opening bid. The findings highlight that the final achieved sale price is influenced by key price variables revealed both prior to and during the auction itself. Factors such as auction participation, the number of individual bidders and the number of bids are significant in a number of the alternative specifications

Political institutions and debt crises

This paper shows that political institutions matter in explaining defaults on external and domestic debt obligations. We explore a large number of political and macroeconomic variables using a non-parametric technique to predict safety from default. The advantage of this technique is that it is able to identify patterns in the data that are not captured in standard probit analysis. We find that political factors matter, and do so in different ways for democratic and non-democratic regimes, and for domestic and external debt. In democracies, a parliamentary system or sufficient checks and balances almost guarantee the absence of default on external debt when economic fundamentals or liquidity are sufficiently strong. In dictatorships, high stability and tenure play a similar role for default on domestic debt