Impact on international capital flows of sovereign credit ratings: evidence from Turkey

Çalışmada, 1992-2015 yılları için Türkiye örnekleminde ülke kredi notlarının değişiminin, ülkeye giren ve çıkan sermaye üzerindeki etkisi ekonometrik yöntemler ile araştırılmaktadır. Alfanümerik tarzda olan ratingler, not görünümlerini de dâhil sayısallaştırılarak endekse (KÜDİ-Karşılaştırmalı Ülke Derecelendirme İndeksi) dönüştürülmüştür. Çalışmada, rating indeksleri ve toplam sermaye hareketinin GSYH’ya oranı (capital/gdp) olmak üzere iki seri kullanılmıştır. Serilerin birim kök içerip içermedikleri ADF, PP, KPSS ve Ng-Perron birim kök testleri ile test edilmiştir. Seriler arasındaki eşbütünleşmenin varlığı, Pesaran vd. (2001) tarafından geliştirilen sınır testi yaklaşımı ile test edilmiştir. Seriler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkileri sınır testi yaklaşımına dayalı ARDL yöntemiyle irdelenmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarında göre, seriler arasında nedensellik ve eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiş olup, uzun dönemde KÜDİ indeksinin 1 puan artması, net sermaye hareketinin GSYH içindeki payını yaklaşık % 1.75 oranında artmasına neden olmaktadır. Kısa dönemde ise hata düzeltme mekanizması çalışmaktadır.In this study, the effects of changes in sovereign ratings on the capital income and outcome the country are researched by econometric methods on the case of Turkey in the period between 1992 and 2015. Alphanumeric ratings (included rating outlook) were adapted by converting to digitization index (CRIS - Comparative Rating Index of Sovereigns). Two series involving the GDP ratio of total capital flows (capital/GDP) and rating indexes were used in this study. Whether the series include unit roots or not was tested by ADF, PP, KPSS and Ng-Perron unit root tests. The presence of co-integration between the series was tested by bounds test approach which was developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Short and long-term relationships between series were investigated by ARDL approach that is based on limit test approach. According to the analysis results, causality and co-integration relationship between the series were detected. While 1 point increase of CRIS rating index results in 1.75% net capital flow increase in its share of GDP in the long-term, error correction mechanism works in the short term

THE HOLIDAY CONSEPT OF CONSERVATIVE PEOPLE IN TURKEY AFTER THE 2000s

In this study it is tried to be explained that Islamic tourism is a demand which has emerged as a result of changing and developing conditions. Conservative client profile has emerged with these demands, which can be explained as modernization efforts of Islamic section, and the desire of more utilize from world’s blessings. As a natural result of this situation Islamic tourism concept has developed rapidly in our country. Instead of handling all dimensions of Islamic tourism, only inversion efforts of coastal tourism, including sea-sand-sun triangle and thermal spring tourism to Islamic tourism is analyzed

Portfolio optimization through markowitz quadratic programming with constrainted Elton-Gruber: an application on Sei-50 (stock exchange İstanbul)

Bu çalışmada, Sharpe’ın (1964) Tek İndeks Modeli altında Elton-Gruber (1995) tarafından geliştirilen portföy seçim yöntemi ve Markowitz’in (1952) ortalama-varyans modelinin BIST-50 üzerinde uygulanabilirliğinin test edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Çalışmada, BIST50 endeksinde işlem gören tüm hisse senetlerinin 1 Ağustos-30 Eylül 2013 tarihlerindeki günlük kapanış verileri kullanılmıştır. Günlük kapanış verilerine bağlı olarak hesaplanan getiriler doğal logaritma ile hesaplanarak, optimizasyon işlemleri MS Office Excel çözücü eklentisi kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Yine Elton-Gruber yöntemi ile portföye dahil edilecek hisse senetleri MS Office Excel programı yardımıyla bulunmuştur. Çalışma sonunda, Elton-Gruber Yöntemi ile elde edilen risk ve getiri oranları Markowitz kuadratik programlama kısıtına uygulandığında, daha yüksek getirili, daha düşük riskli ve daha yüksek Sharpe oranlı yeni bir portföy elde edilebilmiştir.In this study, aimed to test the applicability of Elton-Gruber (1995) Portfolio Selection Method developed under the Single-Index Model and Mean-Variance Model of Markowitz (1952) on SEI-50 (Stock Exchange Istanbul-National 50 Index). In the study, used daily closing values of all stocks traded in SEI-50 between the date of 1 August to 30 September 2013. Returns of dialy closing datas calculate through natural logarithm and process of optimization was performed using MS Office Excel Solver plugin. Stocks that included to portfolio through Elton-Gruber Method found using MS Office Excel, either. At the end of study, When applied to constraint of Markowitz Quadratic Programming risk and return ratios that obtained through Elton-Gruber Method, could obtain a new portfolio which has higher returns, lower risk and higher Sharpe ratio

The role of economic growth and energy consumption on CO2 emissions in E7 countries

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between carbon emissions, financial development, total energy consumption and economic growth by using panel data analysis in E7 countries (Brazil, China, Indonesia, India, Mexico, Russia and Turkey) for 1990-2014 period. The result of the panel analysis suggests that there is no long-term relationship between carbon emissions and financial development. A 1% increase in total energy consumption increases carbon emissions by 1.840%. A 1% increase in economic growth leads to an increase of 0.243% in carbon emissions over the long-term. To this end, it would be beneficial for policy makers to consider alternative growth models, along with alternative energy sources, to prevent environmental pollution

A research on the performance and characteristics of the firms in Turkish manufacturing industry

4th AutorThis study aims to determine the factors affecting the performance of companies operating in the Turkish manufacturing industry. The sample of the study consists of 25394 firms which have been active in Turkish manufacturing industry between the years 2005 and 2011. Heckman sample selection model is used for the assessment of the growth and survival probabilities of the firms. According to the research model, it was found that the factors affecting firm performance are firm and industry based factors. It is concluded that Innovation, R&D, export and branch variables have positive significant effects on the performance of the manufacturing industry firms