Current and Near-Term AI as a Potential Existential Risk Factor

There is a substantial and ever-growing corpus of evidence and literature exploring the impacts of Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies on society, politics, and humanity as a whole. A separate, parallel body of work has explored existential risks to humanity, including but not limited to that stemming from unaligned Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). In this paper, we problematise the notion that current and near-term artificial intelligence technologies have the potential to contribute to existential risk by acting as intermediate risk factors, and that this potential is not limited to the unaligned AGI scenario. We propose the hypothesis that certain already-documented effects of AI can act as existential risk factors, magnifying the likelihood of previously identified sources of existential risk. Moreover, future developments in the coming decade hold the potential to significantly exacerbate these risk factors, even in the absence of artificial general intelligence. Our main contribution is a (non-exhaustive) exposition of potential AI risk factors and the causal relationships between them, focusing on how AI can affect power dynamics and information security. This exposition demonstrates that there exist causal pathways from AI systems to existential risks that do not presuppose hypothetical future AI capabilities

Utensils-The Major Non-Ferrous Industry of India

Aluminium and brass domestic utensils are major products of the Indian non- ferrous industry amounting to 80 per cent of the total consumption of these metals in India. The utensils industry is thus a much more significant part of the non-ferrous metal industry in India than elsewhere in the world. The annual production of brass utensils is over 40,000 tons, of which only 7000 tons are produced in registered factories , the balance being manufactured by the cottage industries. Aluminium utensils, on the other hand, are mostly manufactured in factories, the annual production being estimated at over 12,000 tons . India is an exporter of aluminium wares and utensils ( 978 tons worth Rs. 61 lakhs in 1951 ) and brass wares and utensils ( worth Rs. 35 lakhs in 1951 ) mostly to the East African, Middle Eastern and South Asian countries. Production of aluminium and copper in India is not able at present to meet the demands of industry and has to be augmented by imports to the tune of Rs. 750 lakhs ( including zinc). Aluminium is the only non-ferrous metal production of which can be readily increased to any large extent in India ; this is being organized under the country's first Five Year Plan. From the point of view of national economics it is necessary that for utensils copper alloys be replaced by aluminium and its alloys in so far as this can be done without any prejudice to the indigenous manufacture of copper.This replacement could be easily effected if conservatism and antipathy of consumers against aluminium utensils could be eradicated by suitable publicity accompanied by improved design and manufacture of aluminium utensils. The need for technical control and standardization is emphasized

An interval Kalman filter-based fuzzy multi-sensor fusion approach for fault-tolerant heading estimation of an autonomous surface vehicle

This article presents a novel fuzzy–logic based multi-sensor data fusion algorithm for combining heading estimates from three separate weighted interval Kalman filters to construct a robust, fault-tolerant heading estimator for the navigation of the Springer autonomous surface vehicle. A single, low-cost gyroscopic unit and three independent compasses are used to acquire data onboard the vehicle. The gyroscope data, prone to sporadic bias drifts, are fused individually with readings from each of the compasses via a weighted interval Kalman filter. Unlike the standard Kalman filter, the weighted interval Kalman filter is able to provide a robust heading estimate even when subject to such gyroscope bias drifts. The three ensuing weighted interval Kalman filter estimates of the vehicle’s heading are then fused via a fuzzy logic algorithm designed to provide an accurate heading estimate even when two of the three compasses develop a fault at any time. Simulations and real-time trials demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. </jats:p

The effectiveness of three types of practice in word recognition in grades II and III

Thesis (Ed.M.)--Boston Universit

An empirical analysis on the operational profile of liquefied natural gas carriers with steam propulsion plants

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) offers negligible NO_{x} and SO_{x} emissions as well as reductions in CO_{2} compared with other liquid hydrocarbons. LNG is a significant player in the global energy mix, with a projection of 40% increase in demand for the next two decades. It is anticipated that the expected rise in demand will cause the fleet of LNG carriers (LNGC) to expand. This work concentrates on steam-powered LNGC, which accounted for 47% of the LNGC fleet in 2018. It performs an empirical analysis of continuous monitoring data that provide high levels of accuracy and transparency. The analysis is done on data collected from 40 LNGCs for over a year to estimate the fleet's operational profile, fuel mix and energy performance. The findings of this work are relevant for bottom-up analysis and simulation models that depend on technical assumptions, but also for emission studies such as the upcoming Fourth International Maritime Organization Greenhouse Gases study

External validation of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) in 3305 abdominal surgery patients in the independent sector in the UK

BACKGROUND: Assessing the risk of post-surgical mortality is a key component of pre-surgical planning. The Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) uses pre-operative variables to predict 30-day mortality. The aim of this study was to externally validate SORT in patients undergoing major abdominal surgery. METHODS: Data were collected from patients treated in five independent hospitals in the UK. Individualised SORT scores were calculated, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and precision-recall curves (PRC) plus 95% confidence intervals (CI) were drawn to test the ability of SORT to identify in-hospital death. Outcomes of patients with a SORT predicted risk of mortality of ≥ 5% (high risk) were compared to those with a predicted risk of < 5% (standard risk). RESULTS: The study population comprised 3305 patients, mean age 51 years, 2783 (84.2%) underwent elective surgery most frequently involving the colon (24.6%), or liver, pancreas or gallbladder (18.2%). Overall, 1551 (46.9%) patients were admitted to ICU and 29 (0.88%) died. The AUROC of SORT for discriminating patients at risk of death in hospital was 0.899 (95% CI 0.849 to 0.949) and the PRC 0.247. In total, 72 (2.18%) patients were stratified as high risk. There were more unplanned ICU admissions and deaths in this group compared to the standard risk group (25.0% and 3.3%, versus 3.1% and 0.5%, respectively). CONCLUSION: We externally validated SORT in a large population of abdominal surgery patients. SORT performed well in patients with lower risk profiles, but underpredicted adverse outcomes in the higher risk group

Modelling the costs and benefits of hybrid buses from a whole-life perspective

Hybrid electric-diesel engine technologies offer the potential to reduce fuel consumption in buses by around 40%. These savings can largely be attributed to regenerative braking – the ability to store in a battery energy that would otherwise have been lost under braking. Lower fuel consumption makes sense economically for bus operators through reduced running costs; hybrid engines have other wider benefits, though, such as reducing emissions and noise, and providing smoother acceleration and braking. The costs associated with hybrid technologies are significant, however, with hybrid vehicles currently costing around 50% more to buy than conventional buses. With Alexander Dennis and BAE Systems, UCL is conducting a three-year systems engineering research and development project to adapt and optimise hybrid buses for the UK and European market. This paper investigates one aspect of this project – the costs and benefits of introducing hybrid bus technologies from a whole-life perspective. We find that fuel and emissions savings alone do not provide a compelling case for hybrid buses based on current prices. However, as the cost of fuel rises, and when the social and environmental impacts of motor vehicle use are better accounted for, hybrid technology outperforms conventional diesel technology

Protocol-directed sedation versus non-protocol-directed sedation to reduce duration of mechanical ventilation in mechanically ventilated intensive care patients

Background The sedation needs of critically ill patients have been recognized as a core component of critical care and meeting these is vital to assist recovery and ensure humane treatment. There is growing evidence to suggest that sedation requirements are not always optimally managed. Sub-optimal sedation incorporates both under- and over-sedation and has been linked to both short-term (e.g. length of stay) and long-term (e.g. psychological recovery) outcomes. Various strategies have been proposed to improve sedation management and address aspects of assessment as well as delivery of sedation. Objectives To assess the effects of protocol-directed sedation management on the duration of mechanical ventilation and other relevant patient outcomes in mechanically ventilated intensive care unit (ICU) patients. We looked at various outcomes and examined the role of bias in order to examine the level of evidence for this intervention. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled trials (CENTRAL) (2013; Issue 11), MEDLINE (OvidSP) (1990 to November 2013), EMBASE (OvidSP) (1990 to November 2013), CINAHL (BIREME host) (1990 to November 2013), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) (1990 to November 2013), LILACS (1990 to November 2013), Current Controlled Trials and US National Institutes of Health Clinical Research Studies (1990 to November 2013), and reference lists of articles. We re-ran the search in October 2014. We will deal with any studies of interest when we update the review. Selection criteria We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) conducted in adult ICUs comparing management with and without protocol-directed sedation. Data collection and analysis Two authors screened the titles and abstracts and then the full-text reports identified from our electronic search. We assessed seven domains of potential risk of bias for the included studies. We examined the clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity and used the random-effects model for meta-analysis where we considered it appropriate. We calculated the mean difference (MD) for duration of mechanical ventilation and risk ratio (RR) for mortality across studies, with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Main results We identified two eligible studies with 633 participants. Both included studies compared the use of protocol-directed sedation, specifically protocols delivered by nurses, with usual care. We rated the risk of selection bias due to random sequence generation low for one study and unclear for one study. The risk of selection bias related to allocation concealment was low for both studies. We also assessed detection and attrition bias as low for both studies while we considered performance bias high due to the inability to blind participants and clinicians in both studies. Risk due to other sources of bias, such as potential for contamination between groups and reporting bias, was considered unclear. There was no clear evidence of differences in duration of mechanical ventilation (MD -5.74 hours, 95% CI -62.01 to 50.53, low quality evidence), ICU length of stay (MD -0.62 days, 95% CI -2.97 to 1.73) and hospital length of stay (MD -3.78 days, 95% CI -8.54 to 0.97) between people being managed with protocol-directed sedation versus usual care. Similarly, there was no clear evidence of difference in hospital mortality between the two groups (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.31, low quality evidence). ICU mortality was only reported in one study preventing pooling of data. There was no clear evidence of difference in the incidence of tracheostomy (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.31 to 1.89). The studies reported few adverse event outcomes; one study reported self extubation while the other study reported re-intubation; given this difference in outcomes, pooling of data was not possible. There was significant heterogeneity between studies for duration of mechanical ventilation (I2 = 86%, P value = 0.008), ICU length of stay (I2 = 82%, P value = 0.02) and incidence of tracheostomy (I2 = 76%, P value = 0.04), with one study finding a reduction in duration of mechanical ventilation and incidence of tracheostomy and the other study finding no difference. Authors' conclusions There is currently insufficient evidence to evaluate the effectiveness of protocol-directed sedation. Results from the two RCTs were conflicting, resulting in the quality of the body of evidence as a whole being assessed as low. Further studies, taking into account contextual and clinician characteristics in different ICU environments, are necessary to inform future practice. Methodological strategies to reduce the risk of bias need to be considered in future studies

Patient comfort in the intensive care unit: A multicentre, binational point prevalence study of analgesia, sedation and delirium management

Objective: To measure the prevalence of assessment and management practices for analgesia, sedation and delirium in patients in Australian and New Zealand intensive care units. Materials and methods: We developed survey items from a modified Delphi panel and included them in a binational, point prevalence study. We used a standard case report form to capture retrospective patient data on management of analgesia, sedation and delirium at the end of a 4-hour period on the study day. Other data were collected during independent assessment of patient status and medication requirements. Results: Data were collected on 569 patients in 41 ICUs. Pain assessment was documented in the 4 hours before study observation in 46% of patients. Of 319 assessable patients, 16% had moderate pain and 6% had severe pain. Routine sedation assessment using a scale was recorded in 63% of intubated and ventilated patients. When assessed, 38% were alert and calm, or drowsy and rousable, 22% were lightly to moderately sedated, 31% were deeply sedated (66% of these had a documented indication), and 9% were agitated or restless. Sedatives were titrated to a target level in 42% of patients. Routine assessment of delirium occurred in 3%, and at study assessment 9% had delirium. Wrist or arm restraints were used for 7% of patients. Conclusions: Only two-thirds of sedated patients had their sedation levels formally assessed, half had pain assessed and very few had formal assessment of delirium. Our description of current practices, and other observational Crit Care Resusc 2013; 15: 213–219 data, may help in planning further research in this area