Comparing Water Use Forecasting Model Selection Criteria: The Case of Commercial, Institutional, and Industrial Sector in Southern California

The United States is one of the largest per capita water withdrawers in the world, and certain parts of it, especially the western region, have long experienced water scarcity. Historically, the U.S. relied on large water infrastructure investments and planning to solve its water scarcity problems. These large-scale investments as well as water planning activities rely on water forecast studies conducted by water managing agencies. These forecasts, while key to the sustainable management of water, are usually done using historical growth extrapolation, conventional econometric approaches, or legacy software packages and often do not utilize methods common in the field of statistical learning. The objective of this study is to illustrate the extent to which forecast outcomes for commercial, institutional and industrial water use may be improved with a relatively simple adjustment to forecast model selection. To do so, we estimate over 352 thousand regression models with retailer level panel data from the largest utility in the U.S., featuring a rich set of variables to model commercial, institutional, and industrial water use in Southern California. Out-of-sample forecasting performances of those models that rank within the top 5% based on various in- and out-of-sample goodness-of-fit criteria were compared. We demonstrate that models with the best in-sample fit yeild, on average, larger forecast errors for out-of-sample forecast exercises and are subject to a significant degree of variation in forecasts. We find that out-of-sample forecast error and the variability in the forecast values can be reduced by an order of magnitude with a relatively straightforward change in the model selection criteria even when the forecast modelers do not have access to “big data” or utilize state-of-the-art machine learning techniques

Arizona Space Grant Consortium Participation and Contribution during the 2017 Solar Eclipse

Students from the Arizona Space Grant Consortium attended the Montana State University (MSU) Solar Eclipse Workshop in July 2016, where the MSU-designed ground station and payloads were assembled. The team returned with the systems, making modifications and conducting tests leading up to the eclipse in the following areas: ground station tracking, payload improvements, and expanded video capability. With the initial aid of Louisiana State University, the team upgraded the tracking system to use both Automated Packet Reporting System (APRS) beacons and MSU’s Iridium tracking system. This update improved the accuracy of determining the location of the balloon and payloads. The hardware improvements for the ground station included the addition of mobile HughesNet satellite internet service. Payload improvements included using medium-gain antennas, next generation Ubiquiti modems, and Raspberry Pi 3 computers. In addition, a 360 degree video camera payload was developed. The systems were tested over six balloon flights. During the solar eclipse, the team was in Glendo, WY, and flew the following payloads: Digital Video Payload (DVP), Digital Image Payload (DIP), 360 Video Payload, ASU Scientific Payload, flight termination payloads, and tracking payloads. Each of these payloads operated correctly with the exception of DVP, which malfunctioned during an impact at launch. The team was unable to live stream video, but instead streamed a slideshow of downlinked images. However, videos from both the DVP and 360 Video Payload were recovered after the flight and later processed. Overall the mission was successful, and high quality video, images, and data were collected

Governing Values and Practices for School Success and Decreased Juvenile Justice Involvement: A Comparative Case Study

This comparative case study of two elementary schools employs Flexible Leadership Theory (FLT) and cultural leadership theories in order to explore how leadership approaches influence student academic success and the prevention of juvenile justice involvement. The researcher used a comparative case study framework in order to contrast two demographicallysimilar elementary schools, which varied greatly in terms of students’ juvenile justice involvement. The researcher interviewed a minimum of six stakeholders per school and used an interview guide to facilitate participant responses. Results of the study indicate that FLT and cultural leadership are present in the two schools studied. Most notably, FLT and culture development regarding the importance of attendance, individual student relationships, and individual response to at-risk behaviors differentiate the two comparison schools. Results also suggest leadership and cultural practices that prevent juvenile justice involvement when other considerations are present

CD20+ T Cells in Primary Mediastinal Large B Cell Lymphoma Microenvironment

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/153656/1/cytob21832.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/153656/2/cytob21832_am.pd

Perceptions of Physical Activity in those with Visual Impairment

Background: Physical inactivity is a significant health issue facing the American population. This is even more prevalent in those with disabilities, such as a visual impairment. There is limited research into how persons with visual impairments perceive their own physical activity. We attempt to gain insight into this in order to better structure exercise programs for those with visual impairments. Objective: To gain better insight into the perceptions regarding exercise and physical activity in persons with visual impairments in order to better inform healthcare and exercise professionals. Design: This will be a 20 question survey study that will use convenience sampling to obtain participants. Participants: Participants will be visually impaired persons receiving services from Northeast Sight Services in Northeastern Pennsylvania. At least 20 participants will be recruited. Survey: Survey will be administered either digitally via SurveyMonkey or physically via a paper copy. There will be 20 questions utilizing a Likert scale. Questions will focus on current activity levels, comfort with exercise, confidence in performing physical activities other than exercise, and perceptions around increasing activity level. Measurements: Descriptive statistics will be utilized to analyze results. Limitations: Limitations could include limited geographical area, limited sample size, and limited accessibility to the survey. Conclusions: The results could provide valuable information about how persons with visual impairments perceive exercise and physical activity. This would allow healthcare and exercise professionals to make exercise more salient to those with visual impairments.https://digitalcommons.misericordia.edu/research_posters2021/1032/thumbnail.jp

Grocery Food Taxes and U.S. County Obesity and Diabetes Rates

BACKGROUND: Grocery food taxes represent a stable tax revenue stream for state and municipal government during times of adverse economic shocks such as that observed under the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Previous research, however, suggests a possible mechanism through which grocery taxes may adversely affect health. Our objectives are to document the spatial and temporal variation in grocery taxes and to empirically examine the statistical relationship between county-level grocery taxes and obesity and diabetes. METHODS: We collect and assemble a novel national dataset of annual county and state-level grocery taxes from 2009 through 2016. We link this data to three-year, county-level estimates based on data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on rates of obesity and diabetes and provide a nation-wide spatial characterization of grocery taxes and these two health outcomes. Using a county-level fixed effects estimator, we estimate the effect of grocery taxes on obesity and diabetes rates, also controlling for a subset of potential confounders that vary over time. RESULTS: We find a 1 percentage point increase in grocery taxes is associated with 0.588 and 0.215 percentage point increases in the county-level obesity and diabetes rates. CONCLUSION: Counties with grocery taxes have increased prevalence of obesity and diabetes. We estimate the economic burden of increased obesity and diabetes rates resulting from grocery taxes to be $5.9 billion. Based on this estimate, the benefit-cost ratio of removing grocery taxes across the United States only considering the effects on obesity and diabetes rates is 1.90

Clonal T-cell large granular lymphocyte proliferations in childhood and young adult immune dysregulation conditions

BackgroundProliferation of large granular lymphocytes (LGL) and T- cell LGL (T- LGL) in peripheral blood along with demonstration of clonality are the hallmarks of a heterogeneous group of disorders, including T- LGL leukemia or T- LGL lymphocytosis. They are often associated with neutropenia and responsive to immunosuppression. The true nature of this entity is not well understood. Some cases are reported as reactive phenomena with very limited experience in pediatric population.MethodsHematology/Oncology Flow Cytometry Laboratory database has been reviewed retrospectively. Patients with identifiable distinct CD5- dim T- cell population and positive clonal T- cell receptor rearrangement were included in the analysis. Clinical and laboratory data were then reviewed.ResultsSixteen cases of children and young adults with increased peripheral blood clonal T- LGL population characterized by dim CD5 expression with wide range of underlying immune dysregulation/stimulation disorders were reviewed. Extended follow up with repeat testing suggested the reactive nature of persistent clonal T- LGL proliferations in this group.ConclusionsOur observations indicate that clonal T- LGL proliferations in children and young adults are reactive in nature and some can be persistent with an indolent course with unknown consequentiality. Clonal T- LGL cells could be targeting the most prominent immunogenic stressor(s) involved as a control mechanism.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154679/1/pbc28231.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154679/2/pbc28231_am.pd

Semi-empirical framework for predicting the noise from wind-turbine blades with serrated trailing edges

This work proposes a semi-empirical framework to predict the noise of wind turbines with serrated trailing edge blades. The framework is employed for studying the reduction of the noise of the SWT 2.3-93 benchmark wind turbine. The framework is verified against field acoustic measurements of the real wind-turbine model and of noise reduction measured for airfoil geometries with serrated trailing edges. Two different serration design strategies are proposed, respectively one with the same serration geometry along the blade and one with serrations scaled with the local boundary-layer properties along the radius. Results show the predicted noise reduction obtained with each of the add-ons and explore the benefits of tailoring the design of the serrations according to the varying flow conditions along the blade span