Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest: A SVAR Approach

For the successful conduct of monetary policy the central bank needs reliable indicators of the monetary policy stance. A recently often advocated one is the gap between the real, market and the natural rate of interest. In this article we estimate the historical time series of the natural rate of interest using a structural vector autoregressive model. This method returns plausible results and thus seems to be well designed for the estimation of the natural rate of interest. We show that the natural rate exhibits quite substantial variability over time, of comparable magnitude to the variability of the real interest rate. We also find that it is a procyclical variable. We conclude that the gap between the natural and real market interest rates can be considered a useful, although not perfect, indicator of the stance of monetary policy.natural rate of interest, SVAR, monetary policy, interest rate gap

The Relationship between Real Interest Rates and Inflation

In the recent decade, a huge amount of papers, describing monetary policy rules based on nominal interest rates, has been written. As it is, however, well known, it is in fact the real and not the nominal interest rate, that can influence spending decisions of enterprises and households and thus inflation. One way, to describe the relationship between real interest rates and inflation, is based on our experience with the monetary theory of the price level. The quantity theory of money can be used under certain assumptions as a good description of the long-run relationship between money and prices. In this respect the best known empirical application is probably the P-star model of Hallman, Porter and Small (1991). In this paper we use two simple descriptions of the long run link between real interest rates and inflation, and subsequently test their empirical performance, using similar techniques as employed in P-star modeling. In an empirical study, based on cointegration analysis, we show that the gap between the real and natural rate of interest does not determine inflation, as it is often postulated, but its growth rate. We find that this relationship describes reasonably well the long run influence of the interest rate gap on inflation. Simultaneously we calculate the average natural rate of interest.Inflation, Natural Rate of Interest

Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest: A SVAR Approach

For the successful conduct of monetary policy the central bank needs reliable indicators of the monetary policy stance. A recently often advocated one is the gap between the real, market and the natural rate of interest. In this article we estimate the historical time series of the natural rate of interest using a structural vector autoregressive model. This method returns plausible results and thus seems to be well designed for the estimation of the natural rate of interest. We show that the natural rate exhibits quite substantial variability over time, of comparable magnitude to the variability of the real interest rate. We also find that it is a procyclical variable. We conclude that the gap between the natural and real market interest rates can be considered a useful, although not perfect, indicator of the stance of monetary policy.natural rate of interest, interest rate gap, monetary policy, SVAR

The Information Content of the Natural Rate of Interest: The Case of Poland

In this paper, I use a structural VAR model and the Kalman filter to estimate the natural rate of interest (NRI) in Poland. I show how the NRI can yield important information for a central banker. First, estimation of the NRI can be helpful for monetary authorities, seeking to stabilize inflation after a long process of disinflation. Second, for a country trying to join a monetary union there exists an additional information content of the estimated NRI. The bigger the difference between the candidates and the Unions natural rates, the more likely the “Portuguese” scenario of a widening current account after adopting the common currency.Poland, natural rate of interest, SVAR, transition economy

Downward nominal wage rigidity in Poland

We use data on enterprise level from a survey of medium sized and big companies to test for downward nominal wage rigidity in Poland. We find relatively weak support for downward nominal wage rigidity when average total compensation in the enterprise is taken into account. However, since this result may be affected by job rotation,we propose a method for eliminating its impact and find that downward wage rigidity becomes higher. Moreover, disaggregating the data reveals strong differences between sectors, with no rigidity in highly competitive branches and significant rigidities in monopolized or stateowned sectors. Still, the amount of downward nominal wage rigidity seems lower than in other countries, although, due to differences in data sets, robust comparisons are not possible.downward nominal wage rigidity, Poland, inflation

The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?

In a New Keynesian model with asymmetric information we show that publication of macroeconomic projections and of the future interest rate path by the central bank can improve macroeconomic outcomes. However, the gains from publishing interest rate paths are small relative to those from publishing macroeconomic projections. Given that most inflation targeting central banks are already publishing macroeconomic projections this means that most gains from increasing transparency in this area may already have been reaped. This, together with the potential costs, may explain the relative reluctance of central banks to publish interest rate paths.interest rate path, monetary policy, adaptive learning

Designing Poland’s Macroeconomic Strategy on the Way to the Euro Area

In this paper we discuss selected aspects of Poland’s road to the euro zone. Our attention focuses on the proper design of macroeconomic policy during the accession period. We address the issue of entering ERM II, with special attention to the choice of central parity, fluctuation bands, possible revaluation of the parity and sharing the burden of interventions with the ECB. Further we concentrate on the issue of a simultaneous fulfilment of all convergence criteria. We point at the central role of fiscal austerity in providing a save framework for fulfilling the inflation, exchange rate and, obviously, the public deficit criteria. The key role of timing is accentuated.Transition economies, ERM II, equilibrium exchange rate

Downward nominal wage rigidity in Poland

We use data on enterprise level from a survey of medium sized and big companies to test for downward nominal wage rigidity in Poland. We find relatively weak support for downward nominal wage rigidity when average total compensation in the enterprise is taken into account. However, since this result may be affected by job rotation, we propose a method for eliminating its impact and find that downward wage rigidity becomes higher. Moreover, disaggregating the data reveals strong differences between sectors, with no rigidity in highly competitive branches and significant rigidities in monopolized or state-owned sectors. Still, the amount of downward nominal wage rigidity seems lower than in other countries, although, due to differences in data sets, robust comparisons are not possible.Downward nominal wage rigidity; Poland; inflation

Credit Crunch in a Small Open Economy

We construct an open-economy DSGE model with a banking sector to analyse the impact of the recent credit crunch on a small open economy. In our model the banking sector operates under monopolistic competition, collects deposits and grants collateralized loans. Collateral effects amplify monetary policy actions, interest rate stickiness dampens the transmission of interest rates, and financial shocks generate non-negligible real and nominal effects. As an application we estimate the model for Poland - a typical small open economy. According to the results, financial shocks had a substantial, though not overwhelming, impact on the Polish economy during the 2008/09 crisis, lowering GDP by a little over one percent.credit crunch, monetary policy, DSGE with banking sector

Designing Poland's Macroeconomic Strategy on the Way to the Euro Area

In this paper we discuss selected aspects of Poland's road to the euro zone. Our attention focuses on the proper design of macroeconomic policy during the accession period. We address the issue of entering ERM II, with special attention to the choice of central parity, fluctuation bands, possible revaluation of the parity and sharing the burden of interventions with the ECB.Further we concentrate on the issue of a simultaneous fulfilment of all convergence criteria. We point at the central role of fiscal austerity in providing a save framework for fulfilling the inflation, exchange rate and, obviously, the public deficit criteria. The key role of timing is accentuated.EMU; Euro; Poland