Climate-induced severe water scarcity events as harbinger of global grain price

The severe water scarcity (SWS) concept allows for consistent analysis of the supply and demand for water sourced grain production worldwide. Thus, the primary advantage of using SWS is its ability to simultaneously accommodate the spatial extent and temporal persistence of droughts using climatic data. The SWS concept was extended here to drivers of global grain prices using past SWS events and prices of three dominant grain crops: wheat, rice and maize. A significant relation between the SWS affected area and the prices of wheat was confirmed. The past price–SWS association was then used to project future wheat prices considering likely climate change scenarios until 2050 and expected SWS extent. The projected wheat prices increase with increasing SWS area that is in turn a function of greenhouse gas emissions. The need to act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is again reinforced assuming the SWS-price relation for wheat is unaltered

The Future of Agent-Based Modeling

In this paper, I elaborate on the role of agent-based (AB) modeling for macroeconomic research. My main tenet is that the full potential of the AB approach has not been realized yet. This potential lies in the modular nature of the models, which is bought by abandoning the straitjacket of rational expectations and embracing an evolutionary perspective. I envisage the foundation of a Modular Macroeconomic Science, where new models with heterogeneous interacting agents, endowed with partial information and limited computational ability, can be created by recombining and extending existing models in a unified computational framework

Scenario development and foresight analysis: exploring options to inform choices

In an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, where social and environmental change occur ever more rapidly, careful futures-oriented thinking becomes crucial for effective decision-making. Foresight activities, including scenario development and scenario-guided policy and program design as well as quantitative modeling, play a key role in exploring options to address socioeconomic and environmental challenges across many sectors and decision-making levels. We take stock of recent methodological developments in scenario and foresight exercises, seek to provide greater clarity on the many diverse approaches employed, and examine their use by decision makers in different fields and at different geographic, administrative, and temporal scales. Experience shows the importance of clearly formulated questions, structured dialog, carefully designed scenarios, sophisticated biophysical and socioeconomic analysis, and iteration as needed to more effectively link the growing scenarios and foresight community with today’s decision-makers and better address the social, economic and environmental challenges of tomorrow

A 60 GHz system-on-package balanced antipodal Vivaldi antenna with stepped dielectric director (BAVA-SDD) in LTCC

To improve the performance of Vivaldi antennas, a novel stepped dielectric director (SDD) is designed. Compared to the same antenna without an SDD, the new antenna has higher gain. The SDD is added to a balanced antipodal Vivaldi antenna (BAVA) to form a BAVA-SDD with dimensions of 12.4 × 4.2 × 0.776 mm 3, which can be easily implemented in multilayered substrate technology. The director is created by extending the substrate of the existing antenna and using cavities to create a stepped profile. No further post-processing is required and a bandwidth limiting balun is unnecessary. Low temperature co-fired ceramic technology (LTCC) is used to implement the antenna and make it possible to integrate with other transceiver components to create a system-on-package solution (SoP). The BAVA-SDD displays a broad impedance bandwidth centered around 60 GHz and maintains a stable gain in this range. Measured results are in good agreement with simulations and indicate an insertion loss below 10 dB from 57 to 63 GHz and a boresight gain of 10.25 dBi at the center frequency of 60 GHz. To our best knowledge, this is believed to be the highest gain single element LTCC antenna reported at 60 GHz

5th Workshop of the ERCIM Working Group on Matrix Computations and Statistics Numerical Methods for Statistics Aims and Scopes

Similarly to the previous ERCIM WG workshops we plan several plenary lectures and specialize