Looking through conduit FDI in search of ultimate investors – a probabilistic approach

This paper presents a novel computational method to determine the distribution of ultimate investors in bilateral FDI stock. The approach employs results from the probabilistic theory of absorbing Markov chains. The method allows for the estimation of a bilateral matrix that provides inward positions by ultimate counterparts for over 100 recipient countries, covering 95% of total FDI stock and including many developing countries. Reconstructing the global FDI network by ultimate investors enables a more accurate and complete snapshot of international production than do standalone bilateral FDI statistics. This has considerable implications for policymaking. It also provides more nuanced context to some contemporary developments such as the trade tensions between the United States, China and others, as well as Brexi

FDI Statistics and International Production: Towards (Re-) Conciliation?

In a highly complex global production landscape, the quest for sound statistics to measure the international activity of multinational enterprises (MNEs) has become ever more pressing, and challenging at the same time. Rationales for the use of FDI statistics from Balance of Payments, traditionally the main indicators of international production, seem to have weakened as boundaries between "real" and financial investment are becoming increasingly blurry. The purpose of this paper is to critically revisit the main objections to the use of FDI statistics to describe international production, and the possible counter-arguments and mitigating factors. Such balanced approach is aimed at providing concrete indications on the best analytical use of FDI statistics to measure international production

The strong weak convergence of the quasi-EA

In this paper, we investigate the convergence of a novel simulation scheme to the target diffusion process. This scheme, the Quasi-EA, is closely related to the Exact Algorithm (EA) for diffusion processes, as it is obtained by neglecting the rejection step in EA. We prove the existence of a myopic coupling between the Quasi-EA and the diffusion. Moreover, an upper bound for the coupling probability is given. Consequently we establish the convergence of the Quasi-EA to the diffusion with respect to the total variation distance

FDI in the digital economy: a shift to asset-light international footprints

The digital economy is becoming an ever more important part of the world economy. It is revolutionizing the way we do business, and it has important implications for foreign direct investment (FDI). However, little systematic analysis has been done to investigate the investment patterns of digital multinational enterprises (MNEs). This study, conducted in the context of UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2017 (WIR17), is an attempt to fill some of the gap in knowledge and to provide an impetus for future research. It proposes a new interpretative framework for the digital economy, builds an extensive sample of digital and ICT MNEs, and profiles their international operations. Its main findings are that MNEs in highly digitalized industries have a “lighter” FDI footprint than traditional MNEs; they tend to concentrate their operations in a few highly developed countries and their investment patterns are shaped by fiscal and financial motives more than those of traditional MNEs. As digital technologies and business models tend to disseminate across the broader economy, this may suggest the onset of a new era of international production and MNE internationalization paths. This paper sheds light on the methodology underpinning the analysis in WIR17 to ensure full replicability and to prepare the ground for further work in the area. It also builds further on the discussion in WIR17, proposing broader implications for international business and new avenues for future research

The Blurring of Corporate Investor Nationality and Complex Ownership Structures

Recent years have seen a significant increase in complexity of multinational enterprises (MNEs) ownership structures. Complex corporate structures raise concerns on the effectiveness of national and international investment policies, based on the notion of investors’ nationality. This motivates this research effort aimed at analysing the ownership structures of some 700 thousand foreign affiliates (FAs). A new methodology, the bottom-up approach, is introduced. The main objective is to empirically map the "shareholder space" of FAs, along the vertical dimension, from the direct shareholders to the ultimate owners. We find that FAs are often part of transnational investment chains; more than 40% of foreign affiliates have direct and ultimate shareholders in different jurisdictions ("double or multiple passports"). Based on shareholders’ nationality, we then propose and empirically analyse the salient features of four main archetypes of FAs ownership structure: plain foreign, conduit structures, round-tripping and domestic hubs. Each poses specific challenges to the policy-maker