Risks of higher food prices on international markets

Agricultural commodity prices have increased since the early 2000s in response to a combination of causes on the demand side (demographic growth, increased animal product consumption in emerging countries and biofuel mandates) and on the supply side (the phasing out of agricultural policies subsidising food supply in the European Union and United States, lack of public investment in agriculture, reaching ceilings in cereal yields in already high-yield countries and an increase in energy prices). The succession of food crises between 2008 and 2012 has brought the agricultural price regime and its implications for food security back to the forefront. Even though the increase of average agricultural prices could profit some farmers, part of the price increase corresponds to increased costs and urban dwellers, as well as many food-insecure food producers, depend on the market for their supply. In addition, environmental policies concerning the protection of biodiversity, climate mitigation and pesticide reduction could make these issues even more acute

Global and regionalized land uses in 2050: scenarios taking into account climate change. [P-2236-05]

How will future changes in land uses - within regions and on a global level – will affect food security, taking into account possible climate changes, as well as changes in cropping and livestock systems, changes in farm structures, rural and urban relations, food regimes as well as changes in the general context. The agrimonde- terra foresight project on “L and use and food (in) security” considers this question. Launched by the French research institutes Cirad and inra , the agrimonde- terra conceptual framework can be used to build land uses scenarios at national and global levels with narratives and quantitative illustrations. a t national and regional levels, the foresight process involves a group of diverse stakeholders, and discussions on the direct and indirect causes of land use changes facilitate thinking about the possible futures (anticipation), getting new ideas and understanding different points of view (appropriation) as well as decision-making (action). A first workshop has taken place in Tunisia and land use scenarios have been built. On top of that, global and regional levels scenarios are built with the support of a scenarios advisory Committee and their are the basis for discussions on possible consequences of land use changes on food security. t he scenarios have been build combining hypotheses on direct and indirect causes of land use changes, and looking at interactions and retroactions between the variables. The foresight exercice has a wholistic approach.. Climate change is one of the important indirect drivers of land use changes. It impacts the food production capacity of ecosystems in several ways. i t changes the time maturity of crops, it alters annual yields as well as their inter-annual variability, and it changes the nutritious qualities of crops. a s far as climate change is concerned, two contrasted scenarios have been taken into account, focusing on temperature change and biogeochemical cycles. t he first scenario, entitled “Stabilization of Global Warming” corresponds to the RCP 26 the AR5.The agricultural system does not experience any major change due to climate conditions compared to the current situation. t he area of cropland suitable for agricultural production does not notably change compared to the current situation, but the stabilization of anthropogenic emissions requires massive efforts for sequestering carbon in the vegetation which may take the form of afforestation and/or production of bioenergy production with carbon capture and storage, or agro-forestry. Most of the land use changes, however, occur after 2050. t he second scenario entitled “ runaway climate change” corresponds to the RCP 85 of the AR5. The agricultural system experiences strong impacts: there are increases in the area of cropland suitable for agricultural production but it is unevenly allocated as it mainly concerns the northern latitudes while arable cropland areas decrease in tropical regions. The average suitability of cropland areas also decrease significantly. t he combination of the climate change scenarios with scenarios concerning the direct and indirect causes of land use changes show that food regimes, crooping and livestock systems, and farm structures, will have to adapt to new situations (Texte intégral

Evaluating the impact of rising fertilizer prices on crop yields

The agricultural land application of biosolids (stabilised solid organic residuals from treated sewage sludge) as a source of nutrients for crop production is considered a long-term sustainable management option throughout many regions in Australia. Approximately 70% of the 330,000 tonne dry solids produced nationally are land applied per annum. The phosphorus (P) content of biosolids varies and is dependent on the wastewater treatment process, with mean total P values of 1.3-3.9% reported throughout Australia. It is estimated that approximately 6,000 tonne of P is returned to the soil annually in Australia from the land application of biosolids. Hence the recycling of P from biosolids is a useful substitute for inorganic fertiliser P and prevents the loss of P from the food chain. This paper presents findings for P availability in four biosolids products (dewatered mesophilic anaerobically digested, lime-amended, pelletised and alum sludge) relative to inorganic P fertiliser as investigated by combinations of field crop, laboratory and pot experiments in south-western Australia over several years. The risk of off-site movement of biosolids-P compared with inorganic fertiliser P at typical application rates was further examined on several soil types to assess the environmental implications of this practice in Australia. The effectiveness of biosolids-P compared to inorganic-P as a source of fertiliser in field experiments as measured by soil available P, uptake of P by shoots and crop yield was dependent on many factors over time including the soil conditions and biosolids type. Biosolids produced from wastewater treatment processes that used aluminium treatment to remove excess P had lower phytoavailability than those without chemical addition and pose additional challenges for land application as a source of P. (Texte intégral

Intensification and production reallocation: Attributing land-use changes to their underlying drivers

Debates on bioenergy production emphasized the complex nature of land-use changes which put into play responses from the demand and supply-side based on price signals and biophysical potentials. Every change in agricultural production leads to mechanisms of intensification, production reallocation and changes in demand which usually refer to as indirect land-use changes (ILUC). These indirect effects have been estimated by many studies, however their mechanic has never been made completely explicit. Thus, to improve our understanding of land-use dynamic, the objective of this paper is to attribute as precisely as possible land-use changes to their underlying drivers. The following processes are considered: changes in yield due to (i) input use and to (ii) expansion on marginal lands, and changes of production allocation (iii) across countries and (iv) across sectors (between crop and livestock). This study provides first an analytic decomposition of land-use changes from a production shock that makes it possible to distinguish between land-use changes directly resulting from the production shock and those resulting from price-induced effects. A numerical analysis is then conducted using the global model of land-use NLU in the case of a biofuel scenario from rapeseed in France

Research and Innovation to decarbonise the Agriculture and Land-Use sector

The European Commission's 'Farm to Fork' strategy for Sustainable food is a key component of the European Green Deal. To support this initiative, the Commission proposes that at least 40% of the overall budget of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) would contribute to climate action. This DEEDS Policy Brief outlines key features of EU research and innovation (R&I) needs to promote sustainable agriculture and land-use in Europe

The impact of global drivers on agriculture and land-use

Dans un contexte de tensions à venir sur la ressource foncière, l'objectif de cette thèse est d'étudier l'influence des déterminants globaux, que sont la mondialisation et le changement climatique, sur l'agriculture et les changements d'usages des sols. Pour mener cette étude, un nouveau modèle d'usage des sols, appelé ''Nexus Land-Use", est développé afin de permettre une vision cohérente du système socio-biosphérique. Les modèles existants sont d'abord examinés, avec pour objectif d'évaluer leur capacité à estimer les changements indirects d'affectation des terres liés aux biocarburants (CIAT). Les CIAT constituent un symptôme caractéristique de l'influence des déterminants globaux en ce qu'ils résultent des flux internationaux d'échanges. Leur estimation représente un défi pour les modélisateurs car elle nécessite une vision intégrée du système agricole, avec une prise en compte au niveau global des côtés offre et demande du secteur agricole. Il apparaît que malgré des progrès significatifs sur la représentation de l'offre de terres et du secteur de la bioénergie, les modèles existants ne parviennent pas encore à fournir une évaluation robuste des CIAT, du fait notamment d'estimations divergentes des élasticité-prix des rendements agricoles et de la demande alimentaire. Pour répondre au défi posé par la modélisation des déterminants globaux, cette thèse présente le modèle Nexus Land-Use. Fondé sur une représentation des mécanismes d'intensification agricole, à la fois au niveau de la production végétale et animale, ce modèle a pour caractéristiques de combiner au sein d'un seul outil l'économie et la biophysique, et de représenter les effets multi-échelles en intégrant l'hétérogénéité locale dans une architecture globale. La spécificité de ce modèle est également de calculer la rente foncière de manière endogène, ce qui permet, en particulier, de représenter l'effet de la substitution terre-engrais sur les usages des sols, compte tenu de scénarios exogènes de prix des intrants chimiques. A l'aide de ce modèle, l'influence de la mondialisation sur l'agriculture est ensuite étudiée au travers du prisme des régimes alimentaires. A partir de trois scénarios de consommation alimentaire représentatifs, l'analyse démontre l'importance de la convergence des régimes alimentaires comme facteur de tensions sur les usages des sols. Nos résultats révèlent qu'une convergence de l'ensemble du monde sur le régime alimentaire des Etats-Unis d'ici 2050 ne serait pas possible avec les tendances actuelles en matières d'expansion agricole. Les interactions entre le scénario alimentaire et les autres politiques affectant les usages des sols - soutien aux biocarburants et réduction de la déforestation - sont aussi mises en lumière, et certaines options permettant de réduire les tensions sur la ressource foncière testées. Dans un dernier chapitre, deux perspectives de développement du modèle sont présentées afin d'analyser la question du changement climatique. Elles concernent en premier lieu le couplage avec Imaclim-R, dont l'objectif est d'intégrer une valeur cohérente de la rente foncière dans le prix agricole et les courbes d'offre de biomasse énergie. Il s'agit également d'inclure dans le Nexus Land-Use les variations de rendement des cultures simulées par le modèle de végétation ORCHIDEE sous un scénario de changement climatique. Sur ce dernier point, les premiers résultats montrent que le changement climatique conduirait à une relocalisation partielle de la production agricole des pays du Sud (Afrique, Amérique Latine) vers les pays du Nord (principalement Canada et Russie). (Résumé d'auteur

Scenarios for land use and food security at global, regional and national scales. [ID812]

Researchers from Cirad and Inra, with the support of a Scenario Advisory Committee, have carried out an exploratory foresight exercise on 'Land use and food security in 2050' (Agrimonde-Terra) to prepare actors for different possible futures by providing them with elements for understanding and anticipating future issues. The method combines various approaches: a scenario method based on morphological analysis and applied at various system scales, the implementation of foresight forums to discuss hypotheses on evolutions of the system and the construction and use of a modelling and simulation tool, called GlobAgri-AgT. The land use system was broken down into sub-systems or external and direct drivers for which alternative hypotheses of changes to 2050 were constructed; then hypotheses were combined in plausible and internally consistent ways and gave shape to different traceable scenarios. At the global level, Agrimonde-Terra proposes a trend analysis on the global context, climate change, food diets, urban-rural linkages, farm structures, cropping and livestock systems, and explores five scenarios. Three scenarios entitled 'Metropolization', 'Regionalization' and 'Households' are based on current competing trends identified in most world regions. Two scenarios entitled 'Healthy' and 'Communities' involve potential breaks that could change the entire land use and food security system. For six regions of the world (OECD, FSU, Latin America, North Africa, SSA and Asia), past and on-going trends towards each scenario have been identified. The method has been used at the national level, in Tunisia. During several foresight fora, stakeholders and decision-makers of the agri-food system designed their own "land use and food security system", defined their hypotheses for each driver, built scenarios with these assumptions, compared scenarios using a number of criteria and discussed consequences for policy-making. GlobAgri-AgT can be used for quantifying the consequences of scenarios on areas and trade

Legumes production in Europe to mitigate agricultural emissions in a global perspective

Reactive nitrogen is an indispensable nutrient for agricultural production, since half of the crop production depends on human nitrogen fertilization, but reactive nitrogen also contributes to climate change through nitrous oxide emissions. Legumes fix nitrogen that can be used by subsequent crops, and emit less nitrous oxide than non legume crops. Ruminants use important areas of land, notably pastures and are associated to emissions of methane through enteric fermentation and methane and nitrous oxide during manure management. Introducing legumes to replace livestock could allow for reductions of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions, although this effect depends on how this introduction modifies livestock and cropland intensification and extensification. We evaluate the impacts of legume introduction in Europe on global agricultural emissions and production using a global agricultural intensification model: the NLU (Nexus Land-Use). We decompose effects of a demand side scenario representing a shift of animal protein to legume protein on GHG emissions taking into account indirect effects and characteristics of legumes. We also decompose effects of this scenario on the calorie price of the representative crop. For a 11.4kg/capita/year legumes introduction scenario, the net effect is an emission decrease of 100 million tCO2eq/year. It also decreases price of crops by % in 2050. The reduction of global demand decreases GHG emissions by 600 million tCO2eq/year. This reduction is partly compensated by an increase of emissions per unit of production, as livestock extensification leads to emission increases of 550 million tCO2eq/year. The importance of the indirect livestock extensification effect is caused by the low efficiency of extensive systems and the exogeneity of forest areas evolutions in the NLU. It emphasises the importance of taking into account indirect effects because of their major role in emission changes. (Résumé d'auteur

Climate change: a complex driver of rural migration

The link between climate change and rural migration is complex. Several entangled, often self-reinforcing factors are at play. The combination of climatic events and other natural, social, political and economic factors affect populations living in already vulnerable and fragile environments. Understanding how climate change interacts with other migration drivers requires disentangling this complexity in order to design adaptation strategies that address the root causes of vulnerability and tackle the challenges of climate related migration. (Résumé d'auteur