Concurrent Acquisition of a Single Nucleotide Polymorphism in Diverse Influenza H5N1 Clade 2.2 Sub-clades

Highly pathogenic Influenza A H5N1 was first identified in Guangdong Province in 1996, followed by human cases in Hong Kong in 1997 1,2. The number of confirmed human cases now exceeds 300, and the associated Case Fatality Rate exceeds 60% 3. The genetic diversity of the serotype continues to increase. Four distinct clades or sub-clades have been linked to human cases 4-7. The gradual genetic changes identified in the sub-clades have been attributed to copy errors by viral encoded polymerases that lack an editing function, thereby resulting in antigenic drift 8. We report here the concurrent acquisition of the same polymorphism by multiple, genetically distinct, clade 2.2 sub-clades in Egypt, Russia, and Ghana. These changes are not easily explained by the current theory of “random mutation” through copy error, and are more easily explained by recombination with a common source. This conclusion is supported by additional polymorphisms shared by clade 2.2 isolates in Egypt and Germany

Factors Determining the Use of Guaranteed Loans by U.S. Commercial Banks

Financial Economics,

ANALYSIS OF BORROWER AND LENDER USE OF INTEREST ASSISTANCE ON FSA GUARANTEED FARM LOANS

The Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 made permanent the interest assistance program for the Farm Service Agency's guaranteed loans, authorized a significant increase in funding for the program, and targeted funding for beginning farmers and ranchers. The research presented here provides a basic descriptive analysis of past use. In particular, borrower data for Federal fiscal years 1985 through 2002 are examined in several dimensions. These dimensions include geographic, borrower type, lender type, interest rate differentials, percent guarantee, and the status of the loan as to whether a loss claim was paid or the loan remained active. Even though the program has been in existence for more than 15 years, little is known about its impact and utilization. This research is an initial step in documenting usage of the program.Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance,

OPTION VALUES FOR PROVISIONS IN EXPORT CREDIT GUARANTEES

All major exporting countries of agricultural commodities have some form of credit guarantee program. As the importance of credit programs escalates, it is incumbent on policy makers to examine the value of their program relative to those of competitors. In this study, a model based on option pricing theory was developed to estimate the value of credit guarantees extended to importers and applied to U.S. and competing countries' programs. The Canadian guarantee has the lowest implicit value, followed by the U.S., Australian, and French guarantees. French guarantees had the highest implicit value due to higher coverage for interest and freight and insurance.International Relations/Trade,

Malt Barley Risk Management Strategies

Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

PRODUCTION RISK AND CROP INSURANCE IN MALTING BARLEY: A STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE ANALYSIS

Malt barley is an important specialty crop in the Northern Plains and growers mitigate risk with federally subsidized crop insurance and production contracts. However, growers face considerable risk due to "coverage gaps" in crop insurance that result in uncertain indemnity payments due to uncertainty of their crop meeting contract specifications. A stochastic dominance model is developed to evaluate alternative risk efficient strategies for growers with differing risk attitudes and production practices (irrigation vs. dryland). Results show that efficient choices are highly dependent on risk attitudes for dryland growers, but not irrigated growers. Sensitivities with respect to acceptance risk and level of crop insurance subsidization are presented. Increased specialization of agricultural crops with greater emphasis on quality characteristics will limit dryland producer interest in federal crop insurance.Crop insurance, malting barley, stochastic dominance, stochastic efficiency, Risk and Uncertainty,

Valuing Option Provisions for Export Credit Guarantees

International Relations/Trade,