Can crop disease control cope with climate change?

Crop yields need to increase by at least 70% over the next 35 years in order to meet the global demands for food due to the increasing population and changing dietary preferences towards meat and dairy products in developing nations. Climate change threatens food security because pests and diseases that limit crop productivity are all sensitive to climate change and especially to more frequent extreme weather events. A more variable climate will mean greater uncertainty for crop yields because crop development stages, e.g. when reproductive organs such as flowers and seeds are produced, are especially vulnerable to short periods of extreme temperature or drought. For instance, Europe experienced an extreme climate event during the summer of 2003 when temperatures were ca. 6°C higher and rainfall was ca. 300 mm less than the long-term mean values. One impact of this summer was a record crop yield decrease of ca. 36% below average yield in Italy for maizePeer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Evaluation of oilseed rape seed yield losses caused by Leptosphaeria biglobosa in central China

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Xiang Cai, Yongju Huang, Daohong Jiang, Bruce D. L. Fitt, Guoqing Li, and Long Yang, "Evaluation of oilseed rape seed yield losses caused by Leptosphaeria biglobosa in central China", European Journal of Plant Pathology, first published 9 June 2017. Under embargo. Embargo end date: 9 June 2018. The final publication is available at Springer via: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10658-017-1266-x.Phoma stem canker of oilseed rape (Brassica napus), caused by Leptosphaeria maculans/L. biglobosa is a globally important disease. Severe phoma stem canker symptoms have been observed on winter oilseed rape in China but the seed yield loss caused by this disease remains unknown. In May 2012 and May 2013, 17 and 13 crops were surveyed, respectively, in seven counties of Hubei Province, central China. Stems with phoma stem canker disease symptoms were sampled for pathogen isolation and identification. Only L. biglobosa was identified by culture morphology and species-specific PCR; no L. maculans was found. To evaluate the yield losses, yield components (number of branches per plant, number of pods per plant, 1000-seed weight, number of seeds per pod) were assessed on healthy and diseased plants sampled from crops in four counties and on plants from inoculated pot experiments (plants of three cultivars were inoculated at the green bud stage by injecting L. biglobosa conidia into the stem between the first and second leaf scars). Results of the field surveys showed that diseased plants had 14–61% less branches and 32–83% less pods than healthy plants, respectively. The estimated seed yield loss varied from 10% to 21% and from 13% to 37% in 2012 and 2013, respectively. In the pot experiments, there were no differences in numbers of branches or pods but there were differences in number of seeds per pod between inoculated and control plants. For the three cultivars tested, the inoculated plants had yield losses of 29–56% compared with the control. This study indicates that L. biglobosa could cause substantial seed yield loss in China.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Comparative biology of different plant pathogens to estimate effects of climate change on crop diseases in Europe

This review describes environmental factors that influence severity of crop disease epidemics, especially in the UK and north-west Europe, in order to assess the effects of climate change on crop growth and yield and severity of disease epidemics. While work on some diseases, such as phoma stem canker of oilseed rape and fusarium ear blight of wheat, that combine crop growth, disease development and climate change models is described in detail, climate-change projections and predictions of the resulting biotic responses to them are complex to predict and detailed models linking climate, crop growth and disease development are not available for many crop-pathogen systems. This review uses a novel approach of comparing pathogen biology according to 'ecotype' (a categorization based on aspects such as epidemic type, dissemination method and infection biology), guided by detailed disease progress models where available to identify potential future research priorities for disease control. Consequences of projected climate change are assessed for factors driving elements of disease cycles of fungal pathogens (nine important pathogens are assessed in detail), viruses, bacteria and phytoplasmas. Other diseases classified according to 'ecotypes' were reviewed and likely changes in their severity used to guide comparable diseases about which less information is available. Both direct and indirect effects of climate change are discussed, with an emphasis on examples from the UK, and considered in the context of other factors that influence diseases and particularly emergence of new diseases, such as changes to farm practices and introductions of exotic material and effects of other environment changes such as elevated CO 2. Good crop disease control will contribute to climate change mitigation by decreasing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture while sustaining production. Strategies for adaptation to climate change are needed to maintain disease control and crop yields in north-west Europe.Peer reviewe

Impacts of changing air composition on severity of arable crop disease epidemics

This review assesses the impacts, both direct and indirect, of man-made changes to the composition of the air over a 200 year period on the severity of arable crop disease epidemics. The review focuses on two well-studied UK arable crops, wheat and oilseed rape, relating these examples to worldwide food security. In wheat, impacts of changes in concentrations of SO2 in air on two septoria diseases are discussed using data obtained from historical crop samples and unpublished experimental work. Changes in SO2 seem to alter septoria disease spectra both through direct effects on infection processes and through indirect effects on soil S status. Work on the oilseed rape diseases phoma stem canker and light leaf spot illustrates indirect impacts of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, mediated through climate change. It is projected that, by the 2050s, if diseases are not controlled, climate change will increase yields in Scotland but halve yields in southern England. These projections are discussed in relation to strategies for adaptation to environmental change. Since many strategies take 10-15 years to implement, it is important to take appropriate decisions soon. Furthermore, it is essential to make appropriate investment in collation of long-term data, modelling and experimental work to guide such decision-making by industry and government, as a contribution to worldwide food security.Peer reviewe

Controlling crop disease contributes to both food security and climate change mitigation

Original article can be found at: http://www.tandfonline.com/ Copyright Taylor & FrancisGlobal food security is threatened by crop diseases that account for average yield losses of 16 per cent, with the greatest losses experienced by subsistence farmers in the developing world. Climate change is exacerbating the threats to food security in such areas, emphasizing the need to increase food production in northern European countries such as the UK. However, the crops must be grown in such a way as to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with their production. As an example, it is estimated that production of UK winter oilseed rape is associated with GHG of 3300 kg CO2 eq. ha(-1) of crop and 834 kg CO2 eq. t(-1) of seed yield, with 79 per cent of the GHG associated with the use of nitrogen fertilizer. Furthermore, it is estimated that control of diseases by use of fungicides in this UK oilseed rape is associated with a decrease in GHG of 100 kg CO2 eq. t(-1) of seed. Winter oilseed rape cultivar disease resistance is associated with a decrease in GHG of 56 kg CO2 eq. t(-1), although this figure is an underestimate. These results demonstrate how disease control in arable crops can make a contribution to both climate change mitigation and sustainable arable crop production to ensure global food security.Peer reviewe

Identification of environmentally stable QTL for resistance against Leptosphaeria maculans in oilseed rape (Brassica napus)

© The Author(s) 2015. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.Phoma stem canker, caused by Leptosphaeria maculans, is a disease of world-wide importance on oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Quantitative trait locus (QTL) mediated resistance against L. maculans in B. napus is considered to be race non-specific and potentially durable. Identification and evaluation of QTL for resistance to L. maculans is important for breeding oilseed rape cultivars with durable resistance. An oilseed rape mapping population was used to detect QTL for resistance against L. maculans in five winter oilseed rape field experiments under different environments. A total of 17 QTL involved in ‘field’ quantitative resistance against L. maculans were detected and collectively explained 51% of the phenotypic variation. The number of QTL detected in each experiment ranged from two to nine and individual QTL explained 2 to 25% of the phenotypic variation. QTL × environment interaction analysis suggested that six of these QTL were less sensitive to environmental factors, so they were considered to be stable QTL. Markers linked to these stable QTL will be valuable for selection to breed for effective resistance against L. maculans in different environments, which will contribute to sustainable management of the disease.Peer reviewe

Arable crop disease control, climate change and food security

Copyright Association of Applied BiologistsGlobal food security is threatened by crop diseases that account for average yield losses of 16%. Climate change is exacerbating threats to food security in much of the world, emphasising the need to increase food production in northern European countries such as the UK. However, to mitigate climate change, crops must be grown so as to minimise greenhouse gas emissions (GHG); results with UK oilseed rape demonstrate how disease control in arable crops can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, work examining impacts of climate change on UK epidemics of winter oilseed rape diseases illustrates unexpected, contrasting impacts of climate change on complex plant-disease interactions. In England, phoma stem canker is expected to become more severe whilst light leaf spot is expected to become less severe. Such work can provide guidance for government and industry planning for adaptation to impacts of climate change on crops to ensure future food securityFinal Accepted Versio

Weakly--exceptional quotient singularities

A singularity is said to be weakly--exceptional if it has a unique purely log terminal blow up. In dimension $2$, V. Shokurov proved that weakly--exceptional quotient singularities are exactly those of types $D_{n}$, $E_{6}$, $E_{7}$, $E_{8}$. This paper classifies the weakly--exceptional quotient singularities in dimensions $3$ and $4$

Critical exponents and equation of state of the three-dimensional Heisenberg universality class

We improve the theoretical estimates of the critical exponents for the three-dimensional Heisenberg universality class. We find gamma=1.3960(9), nu=0.7112(5), eta=0.0375(5), alpha=-0.1336(15), beta=0.3689(3), and delta=4.783(3). We consider an improved lattice phi^4 Hamiltonian with suppressed leading scaling corrections. Our results are obtained by combining Monte Carlo simulations based on finite-size scaling methods and high-temperature expansions. The critical exponents are computed from high-temperature expansions specialized to the phi^4 improved model. By the same technique we determine the coefficients of the small-magnetization expansion of the equation of state. This expansion is extended analytically by means of approximate parametric representations, obtaining the equation of state in the whole critical region. We also determine a number of universal amplitude ratios.Comment: 40 pages, final version. In publication in Phys. Rev.