The 2007 federal election: exit poll analysis

This report presents a summary of the findings of an exit poll commissioned by APO during the 2007 federal election campaign, and compares those findings with the results from the newly released Australian Election Study and the Auspoll exit poll. Industrial relations and global warming were key issues for the Labor voters who took part in all three polls, with two of the polls revealing that global warming was the prime concern among voters who changed their vote between the 2004 and 2007 elections

Note on paramoudra-like carbonate concretions in the Urenui Formation, North Taranaki: possible plumbing system for a Late Miocene methane seep field

A reconnaissance study of calcitic and dolomitic tubular concretions in upper slope mudstone of the Late Miocene Urenui Formation exposed along the north Taranaki coastline indicates that they have a complex diagenetic history involving different phases of carbonate cementation and likely hydrofracturing associated with build up of fluid/gas pressures. The concretions resemble classical paramoudra in the European chalk, but are not siliceous and do not have a trace fossil origin. Stable oxygen and carbon isotope data suggest that the micritic carbonate cements in the Urenui paramoudra were probably sourced primarily from ascending methane fluid/gases, and that they precipitated entirely within the host mudstone below the seafloor. We suggest the paramoudra may mark the subsurface plumbing networks of a Late Miocene cold seep system, in which case they have relevance to the evolution and migration of hydrocarbons in Taranaki Basin, at this site perhaps focussed along the Taranaki Fault. The presence of dislodged and mass-emplaced paramoudra in the axial conglomerate of channels within the Urenui mudstone suggests there could be a connection between the loci of seep field development and slope failure and canyon cutting on the Late Miocene Taranaki margin

Tubular carbonate concretions as hydrocarbon migration pathways? Examples from North Island, New Zealand

Cold seep carbonate deposits are associated with the development on the sea floor of distinctive chemosyn¬thetic animal communities and carbonate minerali¬sation as a consequence of microbially mediated anaerobic oxidation of methane. Several possible sources of the methane exist, identifiable from the carbon isotope values of the carbonate precipitates. In the modern, seep carbonates can occur on the sea floor above petroleum reservoirs where an important origin can be from ascending thermogenic hydrocar¬bons. The character of geological structures marking the ascent pathways from deep in the subsurface to shallow subsurface levels are poorly understood, but one such structure resulting from focused fluid flow may be tubular carbonate concretions. Several mudrock-dominated Cenozoic (especially Miocene) sedimentary formations in the North Island of New Zealand include carbonate concretions having a wide range of tubular morphologies. The concretions are typically oriented at high angles to bedding, and often have a central conduit that is either empty or filled with late stage cements. Stable isotope analyses (δ13C, δ18O) suggest that the carbonate cements in the concretions precipitated mainly from ascending methane, likely sourced from a mixture of deep thermogenic and shallow biogenic sources. A clear link between the tubular concretions and overlying paleo-sea floor seep-carbonate deposits exists at some sites. We suggest that the tubular carbonate concretions mark the subsurface plumbing network of cold seep systems. When exposed and accessible in outcrop, they afford an opportunity to investigate the geochemical evolution of cold seeps, and possibly also the nature of linkages between subsurface and surface portions of such a system. Seep field development has implications for the characterisation of fluid flow in sedimentary basins, for the global carbon cycle, for exerting a biogeochemical influence on the development of marine communities, and for the evaluation of future hydrocarbon resources, recovery, and drilling and production hazards. These matters remain to be fully assessed within a petroleum systems framework for New Zealand’s Cenozoic sedimentary basins

A systematic method of parameterisation estimation using data assimilation

In numerical weather prediction, parameterisations are used to simulate missing physics in the model. These can be due to a lack of scientific understanding or a lack of computing power available to address all the known physical processes. Parameterisations are sources of large uncertainty in a model as parameter values used in these parameterisations cannot be measured directly and hence are often not well known; and the parameterisations themselves are also approximations of the processes present in the true atmosphere. Whilst there are many efficient and effective methods for combined state/parameter estimation in data assimilation (DA), such as state augmentation, these are not effective at estimating the structure of parameterisations. A new method of parameterisation estimation is proposed that uses sequential DA methods to estimate errors in the numerical models at each space-time point for each model equation. These errors are then fitted to pre-determined functional forms of missing physics or parameterisations that are based upon prior information. We applied the method to a one-dimensional advection model with additive model error, and it is shown that the method can accurately estimate parameterisations, with consistent error estimates. Furthermore, it is shown how the method depends on the quality of the DA results. The results indicate that this new method is a powerful tool in systematic model improvement

Preliminary Sunyaev Zel'dovich Observations of Galaxy Clusters with OCRA-p

We present 30 GHz Sunyaev Zel'dovich (SZ) observations of a sample of four galaxy clusters with a prototype of the One Centimetre Receiver Array (OCRA-p) which is mounted on the Torun 32-m telescope. The clusters (Cl0016+16, MS0451.6-0305, MS1054.4-0321 and Abell 2218) are popular SZ targets and serve as commissioning observations. All four are detected with clear significance (4-6 sigma) and values for the central temperature decrements are in good agreement with measurements reported in the literature. We believe that systematic effects are successfully suppressed by our observing strategy. The relatively short integration times required to obtain these results demonstrate the power of OCRA-p and its successors for future SZ studies.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figures. Accepted by MNRAS, online earl

Effects of lower limb light-weight wearable resistance on running biomechanics

Wearable resistance allows individualized loading for sport specific movements and can lead to specific strength adaptations benefiting the athlete. The objective was to determine biomechanical changes during running with lower limb light-weight wearable resistance. Fourteen participants (age: 28 ± 4 years; height: 180 ± 8 cm; body mass: 77 ± 6 kg) wore shorts and calf sleeves of a compression suit allowing attachment of light loads. Participants completed four times two mins 20-m over-ground shuttle running bouts at 3.3 m*

An analysis of the Research Fellowship Scheme of the Royal College of Surgeons of England.

BACKGROUND: The Research Fellowship Scheme of the Royal College of Surgeons of England commenced in 1993 with the aim of exposing selected surgical trainees to research techniques and methodology, with the hope of having an impact on surgical research and increasing the cadre of young surgeons who might decide to pursue an academic career in surgery. Over 11 million pounds sterling (approximately US 20 million dollars) has been invested in 264 fellowships. The College wished to evaluate the impact of the Scheme on the careers of research fellows, surgical research, and patient care. As the 10th anniversary of the Scheme approached. STUDY DESIGN: Two-hundred and sixty research fellows whose current addresses were available were sent a questionnaire. Two-hundred and thirty-eight (91.5%) responded. RESULTS: Three-quarters of the research fellows conducted laboratory-based research, with most of the remainder conducting patient-based clinical research. One-third of the fellows who have reached consultant status have an academic component to their post. The total number of publications based on fellowship projects was 531, with a median impact factor of 3.5. Almost all fellows had been awarded a higher degree or were working toward this. Half of the fellows received subsequent funding for research, mostly awarded by national or international funding bodies. CONCLUSIONS: The Research Fellowship Scheme of the Royal College of Surgeons of England has successfully supported many trainee surgeons in the initial phase of their research career. It has helped surgical research by increasing the pool of surgeons willing to embark on an academic career. Indirectly, patient care has benefited by promoting an evidence-based culture among young surgeons. Such schemes are relevant to surgical training programs elsewhere if more young surgeons are to be attracted into academic surgery

Spectroscopic studies of the helium-cadmium laser discharge

The techniques of absorption and perturbation spectroscopy have been applied to the He-Cd laser discharge to determine species densities, excitation rates and de-excitation rates of relevance to laser oscillation on transitions in the cadmium ion. The first section, of this work describes the use of a line absorption technique to measure helium singlet and triplet metastable densities in a 3 mm bore capillary tube for both pure helium discharges (current range 10 - 200 mA., pressure range 0.5 - 15 torr) and for He-Cd discharges. For the pure helium discharge, with constant discharge current, the singlet and triplet densities show pronounced maxima of 2 X 1012 cm -3 and 9 x 1012 cm-3 respectively around 2 torr. At constant pressure the metastable densities saturate for currents above about 20 mA. The measured triplet densities are in fair agreement with values calculated using known cross-sections for production and loss processes. The addition of cadmium vapour has two principal effects: the metastable populations are almost halved when the optimum cadmium pressure for lasing is present while the current saturation is displaced towards higher currents (60 - 120 mA). The observed optimum performance of the He-Cd laser with respect to discharge current, helium filling pressure and cadmium partial pressure is related directly to the behaviour of the helium metastable densities as these parameters are varied. The second section describes the application of the technique of perturbation spectroscopy to the helium-cadmium laser. Chopping the radiation field inside the cavity of the later operating at 4416A induces perturbations in the populations of the 5s2 2D3/2,5/2 and 5p 2P3/2 levels of the cadmium ion. Analysis of the perturbations of the 5p 2P3/2 and 5s2 2P3/2 populations shows that the ratio of non-radiative to radiative de-excitation rates for the latter level (the upper level of the 4416A laser transition) is 0.9 +/- 0.2, with little dependence on discharge conditions. From the 5s2 2D3/2 population changes the cross-section for excitation of this level from the 5s2 2D5/2 level by electron collisions is found to be ~ 7 x 10-16 cm2

A Survey of Monte Carlo Tree Search Methods

Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) is a recently proposed search method that combines the precision of tree search with the generality of random sampling. It has received considerable interest due to its spectacular success in the difficult problem of computer Go, but has also proved beneficial in a range of other domains. This paper is a survey of the literature to date, intended to provide a snapshot of the state of the art after the first five years of MCTS research. We outline the core algorithm's derivation, impart some structure on the many variations and enhancements that have been proposed, and summarize the results from the key game and nongame domains to which MCTS methods have been applied. A number of open research questions indicate that the field is ripe for future work