An Analysis of Bitcoin Market Efficiency Through Measures of Short-Horizon Return Predictability and Market Liquidity

Bitcoins have the potential to fundamentally change the way value is transferred globally. Their rapid adoption over the past four years has led many to consider the possible results of such a technology. To be a viable currency, however, it is imperative that the market for trading Bitcoins is efficient. By examining the changes in availability of predictable outsized returns and market liquidity over time, this paper examines historical Bitcoin market efficiency and establishes correlations between market liquidity, price predictability, and return data. The results provide insight into the turbulent nature of Bitcoin market efficiency over the past years, but cannot definitively measure the magnitude of the change due to the limitations in efficiency analysis. The most meaningful result of this study, however, is the statistically significant short-horizon price predictability that existed over the duration of the study, which has implications for Bitcoin market efficiency as well as for continued research in short-horizon Bitcoin price forecasting models

Shockwaves in converging geometries

Plate impact experiments are a powerful tool in equation of state (EOS) development, but are inherently limited by the range of impact velocities accessible to the gun. In an effort to dramatically increase the range of pressures which can be studied with available impact velocities, a new experimental technique is being developed. The possibility of using a confined converging target to focus Shockwaves and produce a large amplitude pressure pulse is examined. When the planar shock resulting from impact enters the converging target the impedance mismatch at the boundary of the confinement produces reflected Mach waves and the subsequent wave interactions produce a diffraction cycle resulting in increases in the shock strength with each cycle. Since this configuration is limited to relatively low impedance targets, a second technique is proposed in which the target is two concentric cylinders designed such that the inner cylinder will have a lower shock velocity than the much larger shock velocity in the outer cylinder. The resulting dispersion in the wave front creates converging shocks, which will interact and eventually result in a steady Mach configuration with an increase in pressure in the Mach disk. Numerical simulations indicate a significant increase in pressure for both methods and show promise for the proposed concepts