Cross-National Surveys of Learning Achievement: How Robust are the Findings?

International surveys of learning achievement and functional literacy are increasingly common. We consider two aspects of the robustness of their results. First, we compare results from four surveys: TIMSS, PISA, PIRLS and IALS. This contrasts with the standard approach which is to analyse a single survey with no regard as to whether it agrees or not with other sources. Second, we investigate whether results are sensitive to the choice of item response model used by survey organisers to aggregate respondents' answers. In both cases we focus on countries' average scores, the within-country differences in scores, and on the association between the two. There is mixed news to report

Multilateral, Regional, and Bilateral Trade-Policy Options for the United States and Japan

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the United States, Japan, and other major trading countries/regions of a prospective new round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations and a variety of regional/bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) involving the United States and Japan. We estimate that an assumed reduction of post-Uruguay Round tariffs on agricultural and industrial products and services barriers by 33 percent in a new WTO trade round would increase world welfare by $613.0 billion, with gains of$177.3 billion for the United States, $123.7 billion for Japan, and significant gains for all other industrialized and developing countries/regions. If there were global free trade with all post-Uruguay Round trade barriers completely removed, world welfare would increase by$1.9 trillion, with gains of $537.2 billion (5.9 percent of GNP) for the United States and$374.8 billion (5.8 percent of GNP) for Japan. Regional agreements such as an APEC FTA, an ASEAN Plus 3 FTA, and a Western Hemisphere FTA would increase global and member country welfare but much less so than a new WTO multilateral trade round would. Separate bilateral FTAs involving Japan with Singapore, Mexico, Chile, and Korea and the United States with Chile, Singapore, and Korea would have positive, though generally small, welfare effects on the partner countries, but potentially disruptive sectoral employment shifts in some countries. There would be trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on some nonmember countries for both the regional and bilateral FTAs analyzed. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalization are therefore considerably greater than the gains from preferential trading arrangements and more uniformly positive for all countries.

Developing Countries' Stake in the Doha Round

In this paper we discuss the various aspects of the Doha Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations in the WTO that offer potential benefits for developing countries. We then use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the major trading countries/regions of the reductions in tariffs, subsidies in agriculture, and barriers in services that may be negotiated in the Doha Round, as well as a variety of regional free trade agreements (FTAs). We estimate that an assumed reduction of post-Uruguay Round tariffs and other barriers on agricultural and industrial products and services by 33 percent in the Doha Round would increase world welfare by $686.4 billion, with significant gains for all industrialized and developing countries/regions. Regional agreements such as an APEC FTA, an ASEAN Plus 3 FTA, and a Western Hemisphere FTA would increase global and member country welfare, but by much less than the Doha multilateral trade round. There would also be trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on some nonmember countries for the FTAs analyzed. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalization are therefore considerably greater than the gains from preferential trading arrangements and more uniformly positive for all countries.WTO, Trade Liberalization

CGE Modeling and Analysis of Multilateral and Regional Negotiating Options

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the United States, Japan, and other major trading countries/regions of: the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations completed in 1993-94; a prospective new round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations; and a variety of regional/bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) involving the United States and Japan. We estimate that the Uruguay Round negotiations increased global economic welfare by $75.1 billion annually, with gains of$12.9 billion for the United States and $15.6 billion for Japan. An assumed reduction of all post-Uruguay Round tariffs on agricultural and industrial products and of all services barriers by 33 percent in a new WTO trade round is estimated to increase world welfare by$613.0 billion, with gains of $177.3 billion for the United States and$123.7 billion for Japan. If there were global free trade with all post-Uruguay Round trade barriers completely removed, then world welfare would increase by $1.9 trillion, with gains of$537.2 billion (5.9 percent of GNP) for the United States and $374.8 billion (5.8 percent of GNP) for Japan. Elimination of APEC-member country bilateral post-Uruguay Round tariffs on agricultural and industrial products and services barriers is estimated to increase world welfare by$764.4 billion, with gains of $294.7 billion for the United States and$283.1 billion for Japan and losses of $7.0 billion for the European Union/EFTA and$1.0 billion for South Asia. Separate bilateral FTAs involving Japan with Singapore, Mexico, South Korea, and Chile and an ASEAN Plus-3 FTA involving Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea would have positive, though generally small, welfare effects, but potentially disruptive sectoral employment shifts in some member countries. Depending on the agreement, there may be detrimental welfare effects on some nonmembers. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalization are therefore considerably greater than the gains from preferential trading arrangements and more uniformly positive for all countries.