An 11-year validation of wave-surge modelling in the Irish Sea, using a nested POLCOMS-WAM modelling system

In the future it is believed that extreme coastal flooding events will increase (in frequency and intensity) as a result of climate change. We are investigating the flood risks in the eastern Irish Sea posed by extreme storm events. Here, an 11-year simulation (01/01/1996–01/01/2007) including wave–current interaction has been validated. These data can then be used to investigate the potential for coastal flooding in the study area. To accurately model a storm event in the eastern Irish Sea both wave effects and the influence of the external surge need to be considered. To simulate the waves, we have set up a one-way nested approach from a 1° North Atlantic model, to a 1.85 km Irish Sea model, using the state-of-the-art 3rd-generation spectral WAve Model (WAM). This allows the influence of swell to be correctly represented. The Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal-Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) has been used to model the tide–surge interaction. To include the external surge we have set up a one-way nested approach from the 1/9° by 1/6° operational Continental Shelf surge model, to a 1.85 km Irish Sea model. For the high resolution Irish Sea model we use a POLCOMS–WAM coupled model, to allow for the effects of wave–current interaction on the prediction of surges at the coast. Using two classification schemes the coupled model is shown to be good and often very good at predicting the surge, total water elevation and wave conditions. We also find the number of low level surge events has increased in the study area over the past decade. However, this time period is too short to determine any long-term trends in the wave and surge levels

Neuropathy Detection, Quality of Life Tools & Treatment for Type 2 Diabetes

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) mellitus has become the epidemic of the new millennium, with an estimated 382 million people affected worldwide as of 2013, and statistics projected towards 592 million by the year 2035. With the development of diabetes, complications have risen, with diabetic neuropathy becoming one of the most prevalent, affecting between 10–90% of those with the disease. Diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) is difficult to detect in early stages of pathology, yet devastating once significant damage has taken place. Cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN), which is often silent, is associated with autonomic nervous system (ANS) dysfunction and increased risk for sudden death. Therefore, the purposes of this dissertation were early detection, assessment of quality of life (QOL) and disease intervention. Study I explored the effectiveness of the 128-Hz tuning fork, the 1-g and 10-g monofilaments, and the QOL-DN as tools for the early detection of DPN in overweight, obese and inactive (OOI), prediabetes (PD), and type 2 diabetes (T2D) individuals. Study II compared three QOL assessments: the QOL-DN, the PN-QOL-97 and the NeuroQOL-28, in OOI, PD and T2D individuals. Study III involved the execution of a double blinded, placebo controlled exploration of melatonin as a potential intervention for the improvement of ANS and sleep dysfunction in T2D. The results of Study I suggest that the 1-g monofilament and QOL-DN measures correlate to NC-Stat DPN Check portable nerve conduction study (NCS) findings, that these measures function well for early detection purposes, and that the 128-Hz tuning fork is a useful screening tool in OOI, PD and T2D populations, despite lack of correlation to NCS measures. The results of Study II suggest that the QOL-DN and the NeuroQOl-28 QOL instruments significantly predict NCS results, indicating that these measures are useful for screening and accurately assessing neuropathy within our populations of interest. Study III results indicate that a 10 mg dose of melatonin taken 30 minutes prior to bedtime for four weeks has a positive effect on PSQI Subjective Sleep Quality, systolic blood pressure (SBP) in deep breathing and Valsalva maneuvers, and HRV SDNN measures in individuals with T2D

MISASSESSED RISK IN CONSUMER VALUATION OF FOOD SAFETY: AN EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH

This study estimates Canadian consumers' willingness to pay for food safety improvements and identifies systematic misassessments of food-borne risks. Non-hypothetical experimental auctions were used to elicit consumer valuations of food safety improvement. Consistent with behavioural research, results suggest that subjects generally overestimate the likelihood of becoming ill due to food-borne disease relative to scientifically-estimated odds. Subjects were willing to pay a positive amount to reduce food-safety risk. Risk reductions' valuations increased with higher initial risk, supporting arguments of diminishing marginal value for risk reductions.Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Environmental determinants of landmine detection by dogs: Findings from a large-scale study in Afghanistan

This article’s purpose is to examine the strengths and weaknesses of mine-detection dogs in different environments. The experiments employed a total of 39 dogs in Afghanistan between October 2002 and July 2003. The results are discussed here

Flood inundation uncertainty: the case of a 0.5% annual probability flood event

Aging coastal defences around the UK are challenging managers to redesign schemes to be resilient to extreme events and climate change, be cost-effective, and have minimal or beneficial environmental impact. To enable effective design, reduced uncertainty in the assessment of flood risk due to natural variability within the coastal forcing is required to focus on conditions that pose highest threat. The typical UK standard of protection for coastal defences is to withstand a 0.5% annual probability event, historically also known as a 1 in 200 year return period event. However, joint wave-water level probability curves provide a range of conditions that meet this criterion. We examine the Dungeness and Romney Marsh coastal zone, a region of high value in terms of habitat and energy assets, to quantify the uncertainty in flood depth and extent generated by a 0.5% probability event, and to explore which combinations of wave and water levels generate the greatest threat

Physical and economic impacts of sea-level rise and low probability flooding events on coastal communities

Conventionally flood mapping typically includes only a static water level (e.g. peak of a storm tide) in coastal flood inundation events. Additional factors become increasingly important when increased water-level thresholds are met during the combination of a storm tide and increased mean sea level. This research incorporates factors such as wave overtopping and river flow in a range of flood inundation scenarios of future sea-level projections for a UK case study of Fleetwood, northwest England. With increasing mean sea level it is shown that wave overtopping and river forcing have an important bearing on the cost of coastal flood events. The method presented converts inundation maps into monetary cost. This research demonstrates that under scenarios of joint extreme surge-wave-river events the cost of flooding can be increased by up to a factor of 8 compared with an increase in extent of up to a factor of 3 relative to “surge alone” event. This is due to different areas being exposed to different flood hazards and areas with common hazard where flood waters combine non-linearly. This shows that relying simply on flood extent and volume can under-predict the actual economic impact felt by a coastal community. Additionally, the scenario inundation depths have been presented as “brick course” maps, which represent a new way of interpreting flood maps. This is primarily aimed at stakeholders to increase levels of engagement within the coastal community

Determinants of anemia and hemoglobin concentration in haitian school-aged children

Anemia diminishes oxygen transport in the body, resulting in potentially irreversible growth and developmental consequences for children. Limited evidence for determinants of anemia exists for school-aged children. We conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial in Haiti from 2012 to 2013 to test the efficacy of a fortified school snack. Children (N = 1,047) aged 3–13 years were followed longitudinally at three time points for hemoglobin (Hb) concentrations, anthropometry, and bioelectrical impedance measures. Dietary intakes, infectious disease morbidities, and socioeconomic and demographic factors were collected at baseline and endline. Longitudinal regression modeling with generalized least squares and logit models with random effects identified anemia risk factors beyond the intervention effect. At baseline, 70.6% of children were anemic and 2.6% were severely anemic. Stunting increased the odds of developing anemia (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05–2.08) and severe anemia (adjusted OR: 2.47, 95% CI: 1.30–4.71). Parent-reported vitamin A supplementation and deworming were positively associated with Hb concentrations, whereas fever and poultry ownership showed a negative relationship with Hb concentration and increased odds of severe anemia, respectively. Further research should explore the full spectrum of anemia etiologies in school children, including genetic causes

Modeling impact of intertidal foreshore evolution on gravel barrier erosion and wave runup with XBeach-X

This paper provides a sensitivity analysis around how characterizing sandy, intertidal foreshore evolution in XBeach-X impacts on wave runup and morphological change of a vulnerable, composite gravel beach. The study is motivated by a need for confidence in storm-impact modeling outputs to inform coastal management policy for composite beaches worldwide. First, the model is run with the sandy settings applied to capture changes in the intertidal foreshore, with the gravel barrier assigned as a non-erodible surface. Model runs were then repeated with the gravel settings applied to obtain wave runup and erosion of the barrier crest, updating the intertidal foreshore from the previous model outputs every 5, 10 and 15 min, and comparing this with a temporally static foreshore. Results show that the scenario with no foreshore evolution led to the highest wave runup and barrier erosion. The applied foreshore evolution setting update is shown to be a large control on the distribution of freeboard values indicative of overwash hazard and barrier erosion by causing an increase (with 5 min foreshore updates applied) or a decrease (with no applied foreshore updating) in the Iribarren number. Therefore, the sandy, intertidal component should not be neglected in gravel barrier modeling applications given the risk of over- or under-predicting the wave runup and barrier erosion

Antibody responses to a Cryptosporidium parvum rCP15/60 vaccine

Cryptosporidium parvum is a zoonotic apicomplexa-protozoan pathogen that causes gastroenteritis and diarrhoea in mammals worldwide. The organism is transmitted by ingestion of oocysts, which are shed in faeces, and completes its lifecycle in a single host.^1^ C. parvum is ubiquitous on dairy operations worldwide and is one of the leading causes of diarrhoea in calves on these farms.^2,3^ Here, for the first time, we describe the antibody response in a large group of cows to a recombinant C. parvum oocyst surface protein (rCP15/60) vaccine and the antibody response in calves fed rCP15/60-immune colostrum produced by these vaccinated cows. Results of recent genotype surveys indicate that calves are the only major reservoir for C. parvum infections in humans.^4^ Human C. parvum infections are particularly prevalent and often fatal in neonates in developing countries and to immunocompromised people, such as AIDs patients.^4^ Drug therapy against cryptosporidiosis is limited and not wholly efficacious in either humans or calves^5^, making development of an effective vaccine of paramount importance. To date, there is no commercially available effective vaccine against C. parvum, although passive immunization utilizing different zoite surface (glyco)proteins has showed promise.^6-9^ All cows we vaccinated produced an antibody response to the rCP15/60 vaccine and the magnitude of response correlated strongly with the subsequent level of antibody in their colostrum. All calves fed rCP15/60-immune colostrum showed a dose-dependent absorption of antibody. Our results demonstrate that vaccination of cows with rCP15/60 successfully induces antibodies against CP15/60 in their serum and colostrum and that these antibodies are then well absorbed when fed to neonatal calves. With further research, this C. parvum vaccine may well be a practical method of conferring passive protection to calves against cryptosporidiosis. Furthermore, a specifically targeted immune-colostrum may be valuable in protection and treatment of immunocompromised human patients with cryptosporidiosis