When Point Estimates Miss the Point: Stochastic Modeling of WTO Restrictions

Paper presented at a meeting of the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium held in San Diego, CA, December 4-6, 2005.Point estimates of agricultural and trade policy impacts often paint an incomplete or even misleading picture. For many purposes it is important to estimate a distribution of outcomes. Stochastic modeling can be especially important when policies have asymmetric effects or when there is interest in the tails of distributions. Both of these factors are important in evaluating World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments on internal support measures. Point estimates based on a continuation of 2005 U.S. agricultural policies and average values for external factors indicate that U.S. support would remain well below agreed commitments under the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA). Stochastic estimates indicate that the mean value of the U.S. Aggregate Measure of Support (AMS) is substantially greater than the deterministic point estimate. In 41.8 percent of 500 stochastic outcomes, the URAA AMS limit is exceeded at least once between 2006 and 2014

Current State of the Dairy Industry

Testimony given before the House Agriculture Subcommittee on Department Operations, Oversight, Nutrition and Forestry Tuesday, May 20, 2003 at the request of committee chair, Representative Gutknecht

Effect on the United States Dairy Industry of Removing Current Federal Regulations

This analysis provides a forward-looking examination (2003-2012) of what the dairy industry may look like if each of several federal dairy regulations is removed

The Effect of Adopting California Fluid Milk Standards in the United States

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri (FAPRI-MU) has analyzed the impact of adopting the current California fluid milk standards throughout the U.S. There have been numerous studies of the effects of imposing California fluid milk standards across the U.S. (Salathe and Price, Outlaw et. al., Boynton). In general, these studies tended to reach similar conclusions. The increased use of solids nonfat reduced Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) inventories of nonfat dry milk and raised prices for nonfat solids, which tended to increase farmer milk prices. Although similar results are found in this analysis, the market situation is very different today than when those studies were conducted.Material in this publication is based upon work supported by the Cooperative State Research, Education and Extension Service; US Department of Agriculture, under Agreement No. 2009-03404

Current State Of The U.S. Agricultural Economy

Testimony Provided to the Joint Hearing of the Subcommittee on Empowerment and the Subcommittee on Rural Enterprises, Business Opportunities and Special Small Business Problems of the Committee on Small Business on November 3, 1999

Consensus Analysis of the Final Rule for Reform of the Federal Milk Marketing Order System

Testimony provided to the Joint Hearing of the Subcommittee on Empowerment and the Subcommittee on Rural Enterprises, Business Opportunities and Special Small Business Problems of the Committee on Small Business

Calculating Agricultural Use Values for Missouri Farmland

Please note that there are three parts to the report. The report may also be found on the FAPRI publication website (http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/outreach/publications/umc.asp?current_page=outreach) as FAPRI-UMC Report #16-07.This report provides the background necessary to show that agricultural use values should reflect the expected future stream of returns generated by the land and discounted to current dollars.Material in this publication is based upon work supported by the State Tax Commission of Missouri (Grant Project #00013776)

An analysis of economic relationships in the U.S. beef industry with emphasis on policy evaluation

June 1992."6/92/500"--Cover.Includes bibliographical references (pages 60-64).Includes bibliographical references (pages 60-64)

Missouri Representative Farms Financial Projections

This document presents an estimate of financial risk on individual Missouri representative farms in future years.This material is based upon work supported by Cooperative States Research Education and Extension Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under Agreement No. 00-34228-8988 and Missouri Department of Agriculture proposal #00112091

FAPRI 2001 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book

This document is a baseline projection for the agricultural economy using a very specific set of assumptions. The baseline serves as a benchmark for analyzing alternative policies.Material in this publication is based upon work supported by the Cooperative State Research, Education and Extension Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under Agreement No. 99-34149-7373