Stock prices as a leading indicator of the East Asian financial crisis.

Using a basic monetary model, we assess the effectiveness of stock prices as a leading indicator of the East Asian currency crisis in 1997 and 1998. Stock prices are incorporated into a monetary model, through the wealth effect postulated by Friedman [J. Pol. Econ. 96 (1988) 221]. In addition to the domestic stock price, we also incorporate the stock prices of Hong Kong, China and Japan. Using monthly data, the results indicate that the domestic stock price, the Hong Kong stock price and particularly US prices are significant leading indicators of the crisis. Causality tests suggest evidence of bi-causality between the stock markets and foreign exchange markets

The lifetime of a unilateral target zone: some extended results

In Dumas and Svensson (Journal of International Economics 36 (1994) 467) the lifetime of a Krugman (Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (1991) 669–682) type target zone model is found to be extremely long. This paper shows that the lifetime of the identical target zone regime can be much lower when real disturbances occur. In particular, the mean lifetime is found to be very low when real disturbances occur and the real exchange rate elasticity of the demand for domestic goods is very low. It is also shown that allowing for monetary disturbances to have real effects has very little effect on the lifetime. The results indicate the conditions under which real disturbances might trigger currency crises

Stock prices as a leading indicator of the East Asian financial crisis.

Using a basic monetary model, we assess the effectiveness of stock prices as a leading indicator of the East Asian currency crisis in 1997 and 1998. Stock prices are incorporated into a monetary model, through the wealth effect postulated by Friedman [J. Pol. Econ. 96 (1988) 221]. In addition to the domestic stock price, we also incorporate the stock prices of Hong Kong, China and Japan. Using monthly data, the results indicate that the domestic stock price, the Hong Kong stock price and particularly US prices are significant leading indicators of the crisis. Causality tests suggest evidence of bi-causality between the stock markets and foreign exchange markets

Long-run and short-run linkages between stock prices and interest rates in the G-7

There has been a substantial amount of research on the interrelationships between the main stock markets and onthe interdependence of the main bond markets around the world. However, there have been very few papers that have investigated the relationship between an individual country’s stock market and interest rate, then compared this interrelationship over a number of countries. As market across countries become more closely related due to technical progress and widespread financial deregulation, so different financial markets within countries should also become more closely integrated.The aim of this paper is to determine whether stock prices and interest rates share common trend or commoncycle. The cointegration technique isused to test for a long -run common trend, and codependence analysis is used to test for a short-run common cycle. Co-dependence hasbeen used by Vahid and Engle (1993)among others, to analyse common cycles between output and consumption. As both interest rates and stock prices are related to thebusiness cycle, it would theoretically beexpected that both should follow a cyclical pattern

Limited Reserves and the Optimal Width of an Exchange Rate Target zone.

This paper analyses the stabilising properties of an exchange rate target zone when the stock of available reserves is limited. In these circumstances it is reasonable to suppose that the optimal bandwidth is affected by the expected lifetime of the zone. Our analysis uses Sutherland's (1995) target zone model to assess the importance of the expected lifetime in determining the optimal width of the zone. We find that the expected lifetime tends to widen the optimal bandwidth considerably but unless the stock of initial reserves is small and/or the fundamentals drift large, the extra lifetime bought is small in percentage terms

Long-run and short-run linkages between stock prices and interest rates in the G-7

There has been a substantial amount of research on the interrelationships between the main stock markets and onthe interdependence of the main bond markets around the world. However, there have been very few papers that have investigated the relationship between an individual country’s stock market and interest rate, then compared this interrelationship over a number of countries. As market across countries become more closely related due to technical progress and widespread financial deregulation, so different financial markets within countries should also become more closely integrated.The aim of this paper is to determine whether stock prices and interest rates share common trend or commoncycle. The cointegration technique isused to test for a long -run common trend, and codependence analysis is used to test for a short-run common cycle. Co-dependence hasbeen used by Vahid and Engle (1993)among others, to analyse common cycles between output and consumption. As both interest rates and stock prices are related to thebusiness cycle, it would theoretically beexpected that both should follow a cyclical pattern

Targeted genetic testing for familial hypercholesterolaemia using next generation sequencing:a population-based study

Background<p></p> Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is a common Mendelian condition which, untreated, results in premature coronary heart disease. An estimated 88% of FH cases are undiagnosed in the UK. We previously validated a method for FH mutation detection in a lipid clinic population using next generation sequencing (NGS), but this did not address the challenge of identifying index cases in primary care where most undiagnosed patients receive healthcare. Here, we evaluate the targeted use of NGS as a potential route to diagnosis of FH in a primary care population subset selected for hypercholesterolaemia.<p></p> Methods<p></p> We used microfluidics-based PCR amplification coupled with NGS and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) to detect mutations in LDLR, APOB and PCSK9 in three phenotypic groups within the Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study including 193 individuals with high total cholesterol, 232 with moderately high total cholesterol despite cholesterol-lowering therapy, and 192 normocholesterolaemic controls.<p></p> Results<p></p> Pathogenic mutations were found in 2.1% of hypercholesterolaemic individuals, in 2.2% of subjects on cholesterol-lowering therapy and in 42% of their available first-degree relatives. In addition, variants of uncertain clinical significance (VUCS) were detected in 1.4% of the hypercholesterolaemic and cholesterol-lowering therapy groups. No pathogenic variants or VUCS were detected in controls.<p></p> Conclusions<p></p> We demonstrated that population-based genetic testing using these protocols is able to deliver definitive molecular diagnoses of FH in individuals with high cholesterol or on cholesterol-lowering therapy. The lower cost and labour associated with NGS-based testing may increase the attractiveness of a population-based approach to FH detection compared to genetic testing with conventional sequencing. This could provide one route to increasing the present low percentage of FH cases with a genetic diagnosis

The 'At-risk mental state' for psychosis in adolescents : clinical presentation, transition and remission.

Despite increased efforts over the last decade to prospectively identify individuals at ultra-high risk of developing a psychotic illness, limited attention has been specifically directed towards adolescent populations (<18 years). In order to evaluate how those under 18 fulfilling the operationalised criteria for an At-Risk Mental State (ARMS) present and fare over time, we conducted an observational study. Participants (N = 30) generally reported a high degree of functional disability and frequent and distressing perceptual disturbance, mainly in the form of auditory hallucinations. Seventy percent (21/30) were found to fulfil the criteria for a co-morbid ICD-10 listed mental health disorder, with mood (affective; 13/30) disorders being most prevalent. Overall transition rates to psychosis were low at 24 months follow-up (2/28; 7.1 %) whilst many participants demonstrated a significant reduction in psychotic-like symptoms. The generalisation of these findings may be limited due to the small sample size and require replication in a larger sample

Primary and malignant cholangiocytes undergo CD40 mediated Fas dependent Apoptosis, but are insensitive to direct activation with exogenous fas ligand

Introduction Cholangiocarcinoma is a rare malignancy of the biliary tract, the incidence of which is rising, but the pathogenesis of which remains uncertain. No common genetic defects have been described but it is accepted that chronic inflammation is an important contributing factor. We have shown that primary human cholangiocyte and hepatocyte survival is tightly regulated via co-operative interactions between two tumour necrosis family (TNF) receptor family members; CD40 and Fas (CD95). Functional deficiency of CD154, the ligand for CD40, leads to a failure of clearance of biliary tract infections and a predisposition to cholangiocarcinoma implying a direct link between TNF receptor-mediated apoptosis and the development of cholangiocarcinoma. Aims To determine whether malignant cholangiocytes display defects in CD40 mediated apoptosis. By comparing CD40 and Fas-mediated apoptosis and intracellular signalling in primary human cholangiocytes and three cholangiocyte cell lines. Results Primary cholangiocytes and cholangiocyte cell lines were relatively insensitive to direct Fas-mediated killing with exogenous FasL when compared with Jurkat cells, which readily underwent Fas-mediated apoptosis, but were extremely sensitive to CD154 stimulation. The sensitivity of cells to CD40 activation was similar in magnitude in both primary and malignant cells and was STAT-3 and AP-1 dependent in both. Conclusions 1) Both primary and malignant cholangiocytes are relatively resistant to Fas–mediated killing but show exquisite sensitivity to CD154, suggesting that the CD40 pathway is intact and fully functional in both primary and malignant cholangiocytes 2) The relative insensitivity of cholangiocytes to Fas activation demonstrates the importance of CD40 augmentation of Fas dependent death in these cells. Agonistic therapies which target CD40 and associated intracellular signalling pathways may be effective in promoting apoptosis of malignant cholangiocytes

Testing foundations of quantum mechanics with photons

The foundational ideas of quantum mechanics continue to give rise to counterintuitive theories and physical effects that are in conflict with a classical description of Nature. Experiments with light at the single photon level have historically been at the forefront of tests of fundamental quantum theory and new developments in photonics engineering continue to enable new experiments. Here we review recent photonic experiments to test two foundational themes in quantum mechanics: wave-particle duality, central to recent complementarity and delayed-choice experiments; and Bell nonlocality where recent theoretical and technological advances have allowed all controversial loopholes to be separately addressed in different photonics experiments.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, published as a Nature Physics Insight review articl