Forecasting for Marketing

Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide guidelines for forecasting for marketing. The coverage includes intentions, Delphi, role playing, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We discuss research about which methods are most appropriate to forecast market size, actions of decision makers, market share, sales, and financial outcomes. In general, there is a need for statistical methods that incorporate the manager's domain knowledge. This includes rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We describe how to choose a forecasting method and provide guidelines for the effective use of forecasts including such procedures as scenarios.forecasting, marketing

Effect of closing facilities on electroconvulsive therapy use in Glasgow

<p>Objectives: To assess the effect of closure of electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) centers on ECT use. Electroconvulsive therapy remains a recommended and effective treatment for mental disorders. Declining rates of ECT use in the United Kingdom have been observed over the last 20 years with anecdotal observations that use has declined as the result of centralization of provision. In Glasgow, there have been site closures in the north with no such rationing taking place in the south.</p> <p>Methods: A naturalistic retrospective survey of the number of ECT courses commenced each year in Glasgow, with a comparison made between the north and the south of the city. Data were available from 1996 to 2008.</p> <p>Results: Our analysis showed no change in the mean number of ECT courses commenced in southern AQ2 Glasgow (period 1, 42.25; period 2, 41.83; period 3, 31; F = 1.369; P = 0.298). There was a significant reduction in the mean number of ECT treatments commenced in northern Glasgow (period 1, 91.25; period 2, 51; period 3, 33.33; F = 10.06; P = 0.04).</p> <p>Conclusions: In northern Glasgow, where there have been 2 site closures since 1996, ECT use has declined. This trend was not replicated in the south of the city. This would suggest that the closure of ECT centers does reduce the use of ECT. However, there may be a number of confounding variables that could not be factored into the analysis because of lack of available data.</p&gt

Forecasting Methods for Marketing:* Review of Empirical Research

This paper reviews the empirical research on forecasting in marketing. In addition, it presents results from some small scale surveys. We offer a framework for discussing forecasts in the area of marketing, and then review the literature in light of that framework. Particular emphasis is given to a pragmatic interpretation of the literature and findings. Suggestions are made on what research is needed.forecasting, marketing, methods, review, research

Bread: a consumer survey of Christchurch households

This study is the third in a series of AERU Research Reports presenting results of Consumer Surveys for various agricultural and horticultural products. In this study bread is the product under investigation and Christchurch was the location for the survey. The objective of the present research was to present information on consumer purchasing and consumption patterns and the factors affecting these patterns. The results presented are particularly timely, as the New Zealand Association of Bakers is at present considering a nationwide promotion campaign for bread

Proceedings of a seminar on Future Directions for New Zealand Lamb Marketing

A seminar on lamb marketing was organised to provide a forum for discussion of this important issue, as New Zealand faces significant changes in the lamb marketing environment. The increasing importance of new lamb markets, especially in the Middle East, the importance of the North American market and the increasing fragility of the United Kingdom lamb market, make such discussion very timely. In addition, the market requirement for lambs with a lower fat content has meant that lamb grading standards have been more rigorously set and substantial price schedule penalties have been imposed for over fatness. Increasing production, processing and transportation costs have meant that the farmers share, of the market price for lamb, has fallen. This means that it has become even more important to achieve the maximum possible market return. The achievement of this target must depend on the markets available, the type of marketing activity undertaken in those markets and the structure of the industry supporting the marketing effort. The optimum results may not be available based on the present industry structure and approach and it was therefore considered appropriate that alternatives be reviewed and examined with a view to the future. Includes full text of the papers: Hilgendorf, C. New Zealand lamb marketing: the past and present; Cullwick, T.D.C. The need for a global marketing strategy for lamb and lamb products

A Multiwavelength View at the Heart of the Superwind in NGC 253

Here we present new optical data from the Hubble Space Telescope of the NGC 253 central region, which reveal numerous discrete sources in a ring--like structure. This is combined with data at infrared, millimeter, radio and X-ray wavelengths to examine the nature of these discrete sources and the nucleus itself. We find that the majority of optical/IR/mm sources are young star clusters which trace out a ~50 pc ring, that defines the inner edge of a cold gas torus. This reservoir of cold gas has probably been created by gas inflow from a larger scale bar and deposited at the inner Lindblad resonance. The family of compact radio sources lie interior to the starburst ring, and in general do not have optical or IR counterparts. They are mostly SNRs. The radio nucleus, which is probably an AGN, lies near the centre of the ring. The X-ray emission from the nuclear source is extended in the ROSAT HRI detector indicating that not all of the X-ray emission can be associated with the AGN. The lack of X-ray variability and the flat radio spectrum of the nucleus, argues against an ultraluminous SN as the dominant energetic source at the galaxy core. The diffuse emission associated with the outflowing superwind is present in the central region on a size scale consistent with the idea of collimation by the gas torus.Comment: 26 pages, Latex, 6 figures, 4 tables, submitted to MNRA

Optimum size, number & location of freezing works in the South Island, New Zealand : A spatial analysis

The meat industry is New Zealand's largest export earner and in recent years has been responsible for approximately 40 per cent of total export earnings. For the industry to maintain or improve its competitive position in export markets it is important to have an efficient assembly, processing and distribution system. One apect of such a system involves the size and location of freezing works. Recent papers by Burridge, Pilling, Ward, and Morrison, Cooper et al., have discussed factors affecting the location of New Zealand freezing works, but no attempt has been made to relate these factors through use of quantitative models. The questions such models would normally attempt to answer include-:.- (a) What is the most efficient locational pattern (size, number and location) of freezing works in New Zealand? (b) What are the significant cost factors involved in such a system? (c) How does the existing system compare with a theoretically most efficient system? (d) How should the existing system be changed to cater for increasing numbers of livestock for slaughter, and changing processing requirements? The last question involves decisions such as whether to upgrade or expand existing facilities, or to establish new facilities at alternative locations. These are important issues in New Zealand at present, with a number of proposals for new works, including the King Country, Central Otago, Northern Southland and the West Coast. The objective of this study is to set up a mathematical model and indicate how it can answer such questions. However the area of interest is the South Island rather than New Zealand. For the former, the model will determine the optimum size, number and location of freezing works. One difficulty in such an approach is that social and political implications of location may be difficult, if not impossible, to quantify. However, given reasonable assumptions, models can be constructed which are capable of generating a range of good solutions which will provide a choice for policy makers

Retailers’ perceived value of manufacturers’ brands

Most of the theoretical and empirical research into brand equity has focused on business to consumer relationships and the value created with end-customers (consumer-based brand equity). Little is known of the processes where brands create value in business-to-business relationships such as in manufacturer-retailer relationships. This article reports the qualitative findings of a research project into this under-researched area investigating the role of brands in business-to-business relationships. The results show that manufacturers’ brand equity is linked to the value of the brand performance as perceived by the retailer. This perceived value has an impact on key relationship variables such as commitment, trust, dependence and cooperation. To obtain the optimal value from the brand, both manufacturers and retailers need to manage these sources of brand asset value within the business relationship. Although large brands have considerable influence in the relationship, smaller brands can also offer value to retailers and play an important part in the management of product categories within the store. A conceptual model is developed that shows the impact of the sources of brand value within a business-to-business relationship