Multi-heuristic strategy choice: Response to Krueger.

Social projection cannot adequately explain coordination in common interest games, and nothing resembling social projection underlies team reasoning or strong Stackelberg reasoning. Although our experiments suggest that cognitive hierarchy Level-1 reasoning was most influential in the games that we investigated, strong Stackelberg reasoning and team reasoning were also used quite frequently by the players

The influence of advice in a virtual learning environment

The influence of asynchronous discussion in a virtual learning environment, Blackboard, on subsequent coursework grades was examined with 166 psychology students to determine whether asking questions of the tutor online, and/or reading the questions and the given advice, influenced the grades on the report they were writing. A repeated-measures quasiexperimental design was used, with and without Blackboard available, to control for confounding variables. The grades on the assignment with Blackboard available were significantly higher than those on the previous assignment (when Blackboard was unavailable). Students who never used Blackboard had significantly lower grades on the assignment than the students who had used it. There was a positive relationship between the number of messages read and the grade achieved on the assignment. Students who read the most discussion board posts wrote significantly better reports (up by 4%) than they had previously. No improvement in grades occurred for the people who read no posts at all. Both the students who asked questions and those who just read the questions and answers ('lurkers') ended up with significantly better grades than they had done before Blackboard was introduced

Is luck on my side? Optimism, pessimism, and ambiguity aversion

The influences of optimism and pessimism on ambiguity aversion were investigated in two tasks that manipulated the presence or absence of a potentially competitive experimenter. A total of 112 participants chose which option—ambiguous or known-risk—they preferred in the two slightly differing Ellsberg urns tasks. Optimism was measured using the Extended Life Orientation Test (ELOT). Highly optimistic people showed significantly less ambiguity aversion than less optimistic people when information was given that the number of balls was randomly determined. This pattern was present but less pronounced in the condition when the composition of the ambiguous urn could be interpreted as being influenced (rigged) by the experimenter. Pessimism was uninfluential. Perceptions of the situation, especially the degree of trust in the experimenter, were significantly influenced by the participants' optimism. People who do not have highly optimistic personalities tend to shy away from choosing ambiguous options. When ambiguity is clear, and trust issues are removed, people's optimistic outlook influences their degree of ambiguity aversion and thus their decisions

Strategy generator

Strategy generato

Experiencing risk: the effect of the experiential life-skills centre ‘Warning Zone’ on children’s risk perception

This study examined the psychological effects of the Warning Zone experiential life-skills centre on risk perception. The aim of Warning Zone is to educate children about dangers and risks they may encounter in everyday life, with a view to preventing injury. To evaluate changes in risk perception, a quasi-experimental study was undertaken in which children’s risk perception was measured before, after, and one month after the Warning Zone experience. This research also examined children from different types of schools, in order to assess socio-economic factors. Children’s risk perception increased significantly after Warning Zone, and this significant increase was retained one month later. Differential effects of Warning Zone were found between children from different school types, as were pre-existing differences in risk perception between these groups. Children from more deprived backgrounds had better understanding of risks prior to their visit to Warning Zone and a month later had better retained the message of Warning Zone about risks. We conclude that Warning Zone is effective at raising children’s perceptions of risk

The influence of personality on HE students' confidence in their academic abilities

Students’ confidence in their academic abilities, measured with the Individual Learning Profile (ILP) scale, was examined in relation to their personality traits and grades. To validate the ILP, in Study 1, factor analysis of data from 3003 students extracted six factors (Reading and Writing, Hard IT, Numeracy, Time Management, Speaking, and Easy IT) with good internal reliability. Subsequently, in Study 2, 130 students completed the refined ILP, and scales measuring the Big Five, Perfectionism, Anxiety, and Self-Esteem. Between 10% and 31% of the variance in four ILP factors, but not IT skills, could be predicted by personality traits, but Self-Esteem and Anxiety were not influential. Higher conscientiousness and openness positively predicted higher confidence in reading and writing, while agreeableness and three aspects of perfectionism predicted confidence in numeracy skills. Being introvert and female were predictive of lower confidence in speaking, as were low conscientiousness and the perfectionistic desire to be organised. Conscientiousness, Extraversion, and the perfectionistic desire to be organised were strong predictors of confidence in time-management skills, which in turn predicted first year GPA. The reliability of the ILP was examined over the course of a one-year interval

Overconfidence, base rates and outcome positive/negative of predicted events.

Overconfidence is said to occur when a person’s confidence in a series of predictions exceeds the level of accuracy achieved. In this experiment, questionnaire items were selected according to the objective base rates of occurrence of a series of events and their outcome positivity/negativity for subjects in a pilot study. The 98 subjects in the main experiment predicted whether they would experience each event within the next week and rated their confidence in their predictions. Predictions were compared with responses to a follow-up questionnaire a week later to determine accuracy. Significant overconfidence occurred, but it was greater for positive-outcome than negative-outcome items, and the results revealed a curvilinear relationship between base rates and overconfidence, with maximum overconfidence at intermediate base rate levels and underconfidence at both extremes of the base rate range. Subjects tended to overestimate base rates below 40 per cent and to underestimate higher base rates

Problems and pseudo-problems in understanding cooperation in social dilemmas

The principal aim of this article is to clarify what is and what is not problematic in understanding co- operation in the dyadic Prisoner’s Dilemma game and in multiplayer social dilemmas. A secondary aim is to provide a brief overview of the most important propos- als for solving the genuine problems. Our commentary on the very interesting target article (Krueger, DiDo- nato, & Freestone, this issue) is embedded in a more general critical review of explanations for cooperation in social dilemmas. We hope to clarify some of the issues that are commonly misunderstood in the wide- ranging literature on cooperation in social dilemmas. [Opening paragraph

Verbal expressions of confidence and doubt

The development of a taxonomy of expressions expressing the degree of confidence or certainty felt in the correctness of one's judgments, knowledge, or beliefs is reported. 30 phrases expressing confidence and doubt were rated by 96 British participants on a 7-point scale to indicate how much confidence or doubt they felt each phrase expressed. The expressions were rank ordered, based on their mean ratings, to produce a continuum of cues expressing confidence, ranging from high to low. 9 of the 30 expressions were rated as expressing lower confidence when phrased in the past tense than in the present tense. The expressions reported in this study form a useful tool for researchers who are investigating the communication of confidence and degrees of belief, especially in relation to giving advice, influence, and persuasion

Overconfidence: Feedback and item difficulty effects.

Overconfident subjects were given immediate feedback of results in a general knowledge test in an attempt to de-bias them. In a 2 x 3 x 4 mixed factorial design (Feedback Question Difficulty Trial Blocks), the accuracy, confidence, and overconfidence of judgements of 150 subjects (48 male and 102 female) were measured. Hard questions produced significantly higher levels of overconfidence than medium-difficulty and easy questions, which in turn resulted in underconfidence. Combining all levels of difficulty, females were significantly less overconfident than males. No significant effect of external feedback was found, although better calibration in latter trial blocks for hard-level questions suggests that intrinsic feedback through self-monitoring occurred but was effective in reducing the bias only for hard questions