FAPRI 2001 Outlook for Missouri Agriculture

Presented to the Missouri House of Representatives, Committee on Agriculture, Jefferson City, MO, by Gary Adams and Scott Brown.This report presents a summary of ten-year baseline projections for Missouri agricultural markets

FAPRI 2000 U.S. Agricultural Outlook

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

FAPRI 2000 World Agricultural Outlook

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) prepares a preliminary agricultural outlook on world agricultural production, consumption, and trade every fall. This is followed by an outside review, re-evaluation of projections, and completion of the final baseline in January. The FAPRI 2000 World Agricultural Outlook presents these final projections for world agricultural markets. A companion volume, the FAPRI 2000 U.S. Agricultural Outlook, presents the U.S. component of the baseline. FAPRI projections assume average weather patterns worldwide, existing policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements. FAPRI projections do not include conjectures on potential policy changes, such as those resulting from the likely eastward enlargement of the European Union (EU). The baseline predicts recovery of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade, but with remaining price weakness for crops. Stock-to-use ratios in world crop markets remain high despite the strong recovery of Asian and Latin American economies. Above-average yields kept world production high relative to demand in 1999. In contrast, pork and beef prices are increasing significantly above their 1999 level. The physical volume of U.S. agricultural exports is projected to reverse the downward trend of fiscal year (FY) 1999, whereas the value of agricultural exports continue to decline for one more year before recovering because of low crop prices in 2000/01. World crop trade is projected to increase by 55 million metric tons (mmt) in the coming decade, with the United States capturing 49 percent of the expanded market, but still unable to increase its market share by a large percentage. Following this expansion of the market, grain prices increase by 35 percent in the projection period, but still stay well below the peak of 1995/96. The increase in world crop trade reflects the increasing specialization occurring in world agriculture. Increased market access and land scarcity in many Asian economies induce them to import grains and oilseeds to meet their feed demand. Developing Asia remains the fastest growing market for corn in the next decade. With implementation of Agenda 2000 reforms, the EU will reduce its wheat domestic price relative to the world price and will export wheat without subsidies after 2004, constraining gains in market shares for the United States. EU barley exports will expand significantly in the coming years but are likely to be constrained by General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) commitments on export subsidies after 2004. World meat trade will increase by 31 percent over the next decade. The United States has become a competitive producer and exporter of meat products. In the coming decade, the United States will experience the largest meat export growth rates among major exporters of beef, pork, and broilers. U.S. exporters capture more than 70 percent of the growth in trade, increasing their share of the combined meat markets from 23 percent in 1999 to 37 percent in 2009. Meat imports are recovering and expanding rapidly in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. In Japan, the share of imports in consumption increases from 38 percent in the 1990s to 49 percent at the end of the next decade. Taiwan meat imports will triple from 1990-1999 levels to 2000-2009 levels, driven by imports of beef, non muscle pork products, and the opening of the poultry market. Recovery of Asian food demand will prompt dairy prices to grow by about 1 percent per year over the next decade. Total milk production is projected to increase, with particularly strong growth in the United States, Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. Most of the growth occurs through yield increases. Per capita cheese consumption is expected to grow by 1 to 2 percent a year in most countries.Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

FAPRI 2001 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

FAPRI 2002 World Agricultural Outlook

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

FAPRI 1999 U.S. Agricultural Outlook

Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries,

FAPRI 2000 U.S. Agricultural Outlook

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI), located at the University of Missouri and Iowa State University, develops long-term projections for world agriculture. The 10-year baseline results from a process that lasts several months. Initially, analysts from universities involved in the FAPRI consortium meet to determine the key assumptions that underlie the baseline. Based on these assumptions, preliminary projections are developed and then subjected to outside review. The last step is to incorporate comments from the reviewers, as well as any other changes, into the final baseline projections. Once the baseline is completed, FAPRI leaders travel to Washington, DC, for a series of briefings to congressional staff, analysts at the U.S. Department of Agriculture(USDA), and commodity groups

FAPRI 2000 World Agricultural Outlook

The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) prepares a preliminary agricultural outlook on world agricultural production, consumption, and trade every fall. This is followed by an outside review, re-evaluation of projections, and completion of the final baseline in January. The FAPRI 2000 World Agricultural Outlook presents these final projections for world agricultural markets. A companion volume, the FAPRI 2000 U.S. Agricultural Outlook, presents the U.S. component of the baseline

FAPRI 2003 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook

The FAPRI 2003 World Agriculture Outlook presents final projections of FAPRI\u27s agricultural outlook on world agricultural production, consumption, and trade. FAPRI projections assume average weather patterns worldwide, existing policy, policy commitments under current trade agreements, and recent policy changes such as the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002. FAPRI projections do not include conjectures on potential policy changes such as the various proposals under consideration in the WTO Doha Round negotiations. The major macroeconomic drivers of the 2003 FAPRI baseline are the deepening crisis in Latin America,; full economic recovery in many countries in the next two years, and the U.S. dollar\u27s mixed relative value on world markets